Maddalena vs Rodriguez
Opening fight on what should be a fun night. Two guys making official UFC debuts. Maddalena is the more experienced of the 2 fighters. He won his match on the contender series back in September. He is primarily a striker with a very crisp jab that has solid power behind it. He does have solid movement which makes him tough too hit. Against a brawler like Rodriguez, that might play a factor. Rodriguez comes into his debut with only 4 professional fights. He is also a striker with a brawler style. He isn't scared too sit in the pocket and exchange shots at close range. He will look too mix in body shots, and if his opponent ties him up, he does have good ability too separate, and throw solid shots as he separates. Maddalena is the clear cut favorite in this match up, which I think is a fair assessment, but Rodriguez dirty style gives him a shot. I do like Maddalena too win inside the distance but that's juiced at around -160 so I will most likely stay away altogether.
Topuria vs Jourdain
This should be a fun fight. Topuria is 11-0 in his career & 3-0 in the UFC. He has a new opponent for this fight in Jourdain. His last opponent was going too be a grapple heavy opponent, and now he will face Jourdain who has a crazy striking style. Topuria is a wrestler who averages just over 3 take downs per fight. He is a well rounded fighter with sold striking with good power. I think in this match up it will be clear he will look for take downs, and I think that is his path to victory. Jourdain is a late replacement for this match up. He wont his last fight in December & looked solid in that fight. He has a non stop striking style who is always marching forward & is always looking for creative shots. He is very quick and has great movement. He is very durable & has only been finished once VIA submission. He seems to get better as the fight progresses as his opponent starts too fade. If he can stay standing I think he he has the advantage, but that is a big IF. I will most likely take the +400 on the ML & +1000 on inside the distance.
Demopoulos vs Juarez
Both ladies coming off losses in their UFC debuts a few months ago. Odds opened at even money last week, but since has shifted towards Demopoulos which I think is warranted. Demopoulos lost her UFC debut back in late August with a short notice fight at 125 pounds. This fight is back at her natural weight class of 115 which I think benefits her. She is a striker with solid speed and good footwork. She likes to get inside the pocket and use volume strikes to overwhelm her opponent. She isn't a great wrestler, but does have OK offensive grappling. Juarez also lost her debut, but by submission. Like Demopoulos, she is mainly a striker. She does have more power in her hands, but unlike Demopoulos, she likes too use her reach and fight at range. She does have solid kicks, and will use those too manager range. I lean Demopoulos, but I missed the boat at even money odds. If things shift back towards even money I might play her at ML.
Barcelos vs Henry
Re booked fight. This was originally booked for December. Barcelos opened at -220 on the ML back in December, this time around he is sitting around -400 ML. Barcelos is an experienced fighter with a well rounded skill set. He has good offensive & defensive wrestling with clean striking & solid movement. Henry is making his UFC debut. He has a marching forward striking style. He is a very creative striker who is always looking too throw from different angles. He uses all his tools and will mix in kicks/elbows & spinning attacks, he is a true wild card. Originally I liked Barcelos inside distance, but I'm leaning at under 2.5 rounds in this match up so I'm covered by a Henry finish.
Hansen vs Jasudavicius
UFC debut for Jasudavicius. She won her contender series fight back in September of last year. She is a solid grappler and has good scrambling ability when things work too the ground. She does fight with good pace & has solid striking. When she gets inside and ties her opponent up, she will mix in heavy knees. Hansen is very young at only 22 years old. She is 1-1 since joining the UFC at the age of 20. She is a shorter fighter, but will look too cover up too march forward and close the distance. Her game plan is normally too get inside the pocket and tie her opponent up and get the fight too the ground. Once she is on the ground she does have solid control and is always looking for submissions. I think in this fight it will be a challenge against the bigger Jasudavicius. At +190 I like Jasudavicius ML. I think she will be able too defend the take down, and even if she does get taken down, I think the scrambling ability of Jasudavicius gives her some upside. Give me the + money.
Gravely vs Oliveira
Interesting fight here. Gravely is 2-2 since joining the UFC. He is a wrestler but has solid striking. He uses his volume striking & power too set up his shots for his take downs. Once he gets on the ground he will look too control his opponent and use heavy ground & pound too inflict damage. In comes Oliveira who is making his official UFC debut. His striking is average, but on the ground he is pretty slick, which makes this an interesting fight. Gravely loves to wrestle, and Oliveira is a BJJ guy who is always looking for submissions of his own. Although Gravely likes too wrestle, he has been vulnerable on the ground to submissions, and against someone like Oliveira, that could be dangerous. I'm having a hard time reading this fight so I will most likely pass, unless I see something after weigh ins.
Frevola vs Valdez
Another UFC debut here. Valdez making his after his win on the contender series back in October. He is a fun fighter who is 10-0 in his career, all wins VIA stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with wild striking attacks, and good grappling. He is a creative striker who will use all sorts of attacks too keep his opponent off balance and set up take down attempts. In comes Frevola who is 0-2 in his last 2 UFC matches. He is primarily a wrestler who uses his forward pressure and wild looping shots too set up his take downs. He does have more UFC experience, but I think Valdez is better in all areas in this match up. At +162 I will take Valdez in his debut.
Morales vs Giles
Another contender series prospect making his official UFc debut. Morales is 12-0 with 10 wins VIA stoppage. He is an up & coming prospect with great credentials and a well rounded skill set. He has fantastic footwork with a solid clean jab. He likes to fight in and out of the pocket and use his movement as an asset. Giles is no slouch and this will be a good test for both fighters. Giles is a very athletic fighter with a solid jab of his own. He does have good grappling and uses combinations of his own too touch up his opponent and stay in there face. I lean Morales, but I was hoping too get + money. I will wait and see what the line looks like after weigh ins and make a final decision Saturday morning.
Pereira vs Fialho
This should be a fun fight. Pereira is riding a 3 fight win streak and will look too keep things rolling here. Short notice opponent which is always a wild card. Pereira is a wild fighter with a very creative skill set. He has a flashy style with creative striking and great speed & movement. His cardio has been an issue in the past, but coming off 2 decision victories, he seems too have fixed it more or less. His wild style & creativity sometimes leaves him exposed to take downs etc, so it will be interesting too see if Fialho can capitalize on those opportunities. In comes Fialho on short notice making his UFC debut. He is a striker with a solid jab. His kicks are his strength, and I would think he uses them in this fight. He does have OK take down attempts, so it will be interesting too see what his game plan will be. I think the athleticism of Pereira will overwhelm Fialho, and as long as he can stay off his back he will pick apart Fialho. At +120 I will take Pereira inside the distance.
Nurmagomedov vs Stamann
Another fun fight. Stamann will look too get things back on track in this fight after going 0-2 in his last 2. Stamann has fought good competition in his UFC career, so he is no stranger to the big stage. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He does have solid striking, not great power, but he uses his pace and pressure too get in the face of his opponent and eventually work in take downs. He averages just over 3 per fight. Wrestling I would say is his strength, and he uses that well too frustrate and control hos opponent. Nurmagomedov is returning after over a year layoff. He is a flashy striker with all sorts of attacks. He uses kicks too control distance, which makes him hard too hit. He has a striking differential of 5-2 so that shows you, he isn't easy too touch up. I think if Stamann comes in with solid pace and pressures , he can get Nurmagomedov on his back foot and eventfully get this too the ground where he can grind out points. At +175 I will take Stamann and the experience.
Moreno vs Figueiredo
Co-main event. 3rd fight for these two. First match up was a DRAW, Figueiredo lost a point in that fight so he technically won the fight. 2nd fight Moreno dominated. Figueiredo is a well rounded talented fighter. He has legit power for the division and is a real threat early in the fight. If the fight works its way too the mat, he is also great off his back and a real threat from any position. His cardio is a real problem, and it was very obvious in the last match up. Will he get an early finish? Will his cardio hold up late in the fight? I think that is the biggest question mark in this match up, as I think Figueiredo is better in all areas. Lets not discredit Moreno as the champion. He is a great fighter with great toughness. His strength is his pace & cardio, as he never gives his opponent a second too breathe. He is a great scrambler when things get too the ground. In a 5 round fight, he has the advantage as the fight goes on in my opinion. I might play a prop for an early stoppage for Figueiredo, but I will most likely just sit back and enjoy this trilogy.
N'Gannou vs Gane
Finally. Much anticipated heavyweight bout. A lot of moving parts in this match up, inside and outside the Octagon, which makes this hard too bet on. The breakdown on N'Gannou is normally simple, power puncher with little technique and that's about it. In his last match up VS Stipe he showed much more. He showed the ability too defend take downs, reverse positions, solid kicks and of course devastating power. I think he has evolved as a fighter and is much better today then he was earlier in his career. He understands technique and understands the importance of reserving his power for the whole fight. Gane on the other hand is a very technical heavyweight. His footwork is a great asset, and loves bouncing in and out of the pocket. That makes him very hard too hit and has a positive striking differential of 5-2. He has a solid ground game and has a complete set of skills. If this match up is neutral with no outside noise/contract issues, I would take N'Gannou at + money 10 out of 10 times. But with all the distractions surrounding this fight I might just sit back and enjoy, or look for a fun prop.
Prelim picks
Jasudavicius ML +187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units
Demopoulos wins inside distance +275 - 0.5 units to win 1.37 units
Valdez ML +165 - 1 unit to win 1.65 units
Oliveira by submission +550 - 0.5 units to win 2.75 units
Barcelos/Henry under 2.5 rounds -120 - 1.5 units to win 1.25 units
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