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UFC 202 - Equity mistakes

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hey Everyone,

I primarily bet NFL and NBA. I started watching UFC a couple years ago and just started betting at the end of last year. I crushed UFC 200 between betting Nunes and Cormier. The odds were way off in those matches and I hate passing up on any huge equity gifts so here are my picks for Saturday night.

Anthony Johnson (-190) Risking $1,900 to win $1,000
Neil Magny (-135) Risking $1,350 to win $1,000
Rick Story (+140) Risking $786 to win $1,100
Conor McGregor (-120) Risking $480 to win $400
Takeya Mizugaki (+385) Risking $300 to win $1,155

Ill be wrecked if Johnson and Magny lose but I feel like there's too much equity to pass up on either. I think Johnson should be closer to -700 and Magny should be closer to -500.

Didn't really want to touch the McGregor fight so just a small bet. I think it would be great for Nate to win as a professional MMA fighter but I think McGregor has the edge.

"Why would you bet Mizugaki?".... C'mon really? He only wins 1 in 4 fights? No...Give me a break.

I have a suite at the Aria and will be sweating the action there this weekend. I might try to get some tickets. PM if you want to sweat the fights together in LV or have a hookup on tickets. I can meet you at the Aria poker room or something.










 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
Good luck whether you tail or fade.
Share your thoughts either way..
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Can anyone take this seriously when you say Johnson should be closer to -70 and Magny closer to -500?  

That had to be one of the dumbest things I've ever read on covers.com.  If you like someone, you like someone.  You don't have to make up some nonsense that Johnson should be $5 higher than he is....
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Can anyone take this seriously when you say Johnson should be closer to -70 and Magny closer to -500?  

That had to be one of the dumbest things I've ever read on covers.com.  If you like someone, you like someone.  You don't have to make up some nonsense that Johnson should be $5 higher than he is....


I said -700, not -70. 

When you look at a fight, you don't look at the odds and decide whether you feel it's a good bet or not? You don't look at the pricing to decide? Would you lay odds on Johnson if he was -1900? I sure as hell wouldn't. 

It's all about pricing. If you can't see that then you're doing it wrong. 


 
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Posted: #5
-70 is the same thing as -700.  You literally know nothing about sports betting and should stop betting immediately.  You realize -700 means it has an 87.5% chance to win.  Besides the fact that Rumble won't win the fight, the real odds of this fight are very close to 50-50.  You are a novice and need to learn sports betting.  You look like a real moron posting right now.
 
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Posted: #6
I have no clue why everyone is thinking this will be an easy fight for Rumble. 

Same as the entire McG bandwagon. 

I think we are going to witness another "I'm not surprised..." show tonight.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
I'm with SS. I see those fight odds being right on as they are. -500/-700 gives no respect to the threats that Larkin and Glover are. I could see either winning, especially Lorenz. Mizugaki to beat CG too? Stranger things have happened. GL.
 
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Posted: #8
Like I said in my OP I'm new to MMA betting. I never said different. When SS says -70 for one and -500 for another, I took it differently.

Either way. GL. Enough bashing. Just giving my thoughts. They worked just fine in UFC 200 (+$9840)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
LOL @ -700. Texiera has the power and ground game to finish this. The line is wear it should be. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyBags402:

LOL @ -700. Texiera has the power and ground game to finish this. The line is wear it should be. 
*Where it should be*
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

-70 is the same thing as -700.  You literally know nothing about sports betting and should stop betting immediately.  You realize -700 means it has an 87.5% chance to win.  Besides the fact that Rumble won't win the fight, the real odds of this fight are very close to 50-50.  You are a novice and need to learn sports betting.  You look like a real moron posting right now.

In Vegas, -70 is NOT the same as -700. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
LMAO @ TS.......

& do you not realize how much of a beast Garbrandt is?...Sorry but you're throwing your money away.... They are feeding him a win so he can build up a fight vs Cruz.......
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Magny -500.....lol
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by NickCapone:

Magny -500.....lol


Yep  RIP
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Congrats on that Magny steal that should've been -500....
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by DogMiner:

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

-70 is the same thing as -700.  You literally know nothing about sports betting and should stop betting immediately.  You realize -700 means it has an 87.5% chance to win.  Besides the fact that Rumble won't win the fight, the real odds of this fight are very close to 50-50.  You are a novice and need to learn sports betting.  You look like a real moron posting right now.
In Vegas, -70 is NOT the same as -700.


It was a typo. Meant to mock his -700
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

In Vegas, -70 is NOT the same as -700.

It was a typo. Meant to mock his -700

Yeah... Good job!


Guess you've never had a losing pick.

Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

 UFC Fight Night 91 is on tomorrow.


Matthew Lopez -130  

He's going to win very easily.

Mock away...
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by piotrtoro:

I have no clue why everyone is thinking this will be an easy fight for Rumble. 

Same as the entire McG bandwagon. 

I think we are going to witness another "I'm not surprised..." show tonight.

Johnson - This was the bet I felt most confident about. I ended up putting more when the books gave us a gift of -167 earlier today.

McG- I think he's waging a lot on this fight. If he thinks he can win then I'll go with it. There's no way he's not better prepared tonight. 

With that said, I really wouldn't be surprised if Nate wins though. Just a small bet because I can easily see it going the other way.
 
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Posted: #19
Anthony Johnson (-190) Risking $1,900 to win $1,000 
Neil Magny (-135) Risking $1,350 to win $1,000 
Rick Story (+140) Risking $786 to win $1,100 
Conor McGregor (-120) Risking $480 to win $400 
Takeya Mizugaki (+385) Risking $300 to win $1,155 


Solid night.  You only lost $1,036 of the money you didn't actually bet.  
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Anthony Johnson (-190) Risking $1,900 to win $1,000 
Neil Magny (-135) Risking $1,350 to win $1,000 
Rick Story (+140) Risking $786 to win $1,100 
Conor McGregor (-120) Risking $480 to win $400 
Takeya Mizugaki (+385) Risking $300 to win $1,155 


Solid night.  You only lost $1,036 of the money you didn't actually bet.  



Lol a much hate for this guy, he did say he was new and obviously it shows. No need to be so hostile 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Jrod6:




Lol a much hate for this guy, he did say he was new and obviously it shows. No need to be so hostile 


This guy is a clown.  Trust me.  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



This guy is a clown.  Trust me.  

Dammmmm you figured me out. 

I don't understand the "You only lost $1,036 of the money you didn't actually bet"

Yeah, I lost these wagers...I guess I'm the only person.

Notice that you're the only hostile person in this thread? You're a real class act.


 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

  Anthony Johnson (-190) Risking $1,900 to win $1,000 
Neil Magny (-135) Risking $1,350 to win $1,000 
Rick Story (+140) Risking $786 to win $1,100 
Conor McGregor (-120) Risking $480 to win $400 
Takeya Mizugaki (+385) Risking $300 to win $1,155 


Solid night.  You only lost $1,036 of the money you didn't actually bet.  


Yep.. RIP. I knew I would get rekt if I lost on Johnson and Magny.. Wasn't so bad since Johnson did what I expected. I still would've paid -700 on Johnson (when you were ridiculing that thought). 

GL Sharpstick. I don't know if you started a thread for UFC 202 but I'll keep an eye out for yours in the future. You seem like you know what you're doing (lul).

I'll post in the future. Whether I looked like a moron or not.. I don't care. We all learn. We're all here to make money...not act like children (Go to chucky cheese with that BS).



 
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Posted: #24
BL on the next card.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

-70 is the same thing as -700.  You literally know nothing about sports betting and should stop betting immediately.  You realize -700 means it has an 87.5% chance to win.  Besides the fact that Rumble won't win the fight, the real odds of this fight are very close to 50-50.  You are a novice and need to learn sports betting.  You look like a real moron posting right now.
..Papa Shango ,I know u are good at football,basketball & baseball,but u obviously don't know much about the UFC to pick Glover.I just now saw this post otherwise I would've posted earlier.That was the  easiest -190 I've ever played.This site is to help each other cash winners not to embarrass someone....






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