UFC 189

Let me first start off by saying Aldo is a HOF, first ballot, however they do it etc. A respected champ, big heart, beat the Zombie with a broken foot. Let me also stat I am not a big McGregor fan, don't like the mouth, the antics etc. However I played Conor before the rib issue and even though I'm not sure he finishes him in 4 minutes he should come out with his hand raised. A few things I'll touch on and yes we can argue back and forth etc, but these are for sure's. McGregor is for sure in Aldo's head, from day one it's been a onslaught and hasn't stopped. Think Ali/Foreman or Conor/Poirier for that matter, looks the same to me at least. For once in a longgggggggg time Aldo will be the smaller guy in the octagon, Conor is a huge featherweight could probably fight at 170 and has a reach advantage over Aldo. Conor is a lefty with huge hands, great angles, and one punch finishing power, Aldo hasn't faced anything like that before. Now I know Conor hasn't faced the guys Aldo has because I even was screaming about the UFC market machine but hey what's that matter now. Now we all know that Aldo is better on the ground and have great TD defense but if Conor has to resort to that, well guys kiss the money goodbye. Aldo use to have killer leg kicks but since the broken foot he really hasnt used them, he stood and traded with Mendes for the most part. So dispute it all you want them are my thoughts but knowing my luck Aldo will bail and I'll have to rewrite one for Mendes/Conor.

My bad the bet is McGregor(-105) 210 gets me 200.

Knew it, bail city!!!!

I would like to add that anyone who pre bet Aldo, I'm glad you got out it. Would have been a shytty way to lose that bet!!!

Go big or go home. McGregor/Mendes inside the distance(-350) 525 gets me 150.

McGregor says 4 minutes, not sure about that, but Mendes will be throwing leather too. What I do know is the O/U money line and the inside the distance money line are sky high as opposed to the Aldo fight.

I'll be playing Conor at a reduced rate than the Aldo fight for the simple fact that I think Mendes is great. Mendes though will have to go through a hail of fire for that TD. If he gets it, Conor might not get back up!!! If Mendes doesn't get that precious TD what will be left of his gas tank or his body.

I'm sure Mendes has been working OT with Alan Jouban at Alpha Male to figure out Conor's size and a lefty striker with different angles than a normal guy.

As far is your ITD bet, how do you see the fight playing out?  To me, it's one of two ways: Mendes is successful at landing TDs or he's not.  If he's not and it plays out on the feet, you're probably in luck as Conor is likely to bring the fight and there will be lots of exchanges with both guys having KO power.  If Mendes can keep taking him down, it could be LNP city as Mendes has done in the past many times going to decision.  Either way, I'm super pumped for this bout - two studs going at it. 

One of the big things is Mendes and his gas tank. He has 2 weeks to cut 20lbs, he will get there I'm sure but not his normal routine. He will try to get inside the pocket and throw, he tried 1 TD against Aldo and damn near got TKO. I'm pretty sure Conor has better hands than Aldo but TDD, well we will find out.

Another point I wanna make because I'm confused, shouldn't Egdar have got the chance first??? Screw the rankings, Edgar 4-0 and whipping people since his Aldo loss, Mendes beats Lamas and gets right back in line. Maybe Dana and Conor had a little chat before answering the phone I'd say!!!!

Mendes says inside of three rounds!!! Well I'll take that too Chad!!!!

I was all over either Mendes or even a hurt Aldo, but I can't ignore Ferrari.  The more I think about it, the more I see Conors reach and angles making a difference.  To repeat Parlay, TDs or lack there of will be huge.  Still going Mendes but smaller than I would have.

Line has shifted big time. Mendes from -140 to +140 but no real shock with McGregor having an entire country backing him. This is a pick em fight for me. And I'm leaning Conor mainly bc of the lack of prep time for Chad. And that he may be a bit too big for Chad. Mendes will need to rock with the wrestling here but Conor is pretty fake elusive and big at the weight. Getting him down may be difficult. I can't bet against Conor until I see a guy in the armor. Especially when his opponent took the fight on 2 wks notice. As good as Mendes is, McGregor isn't the sort of guy you take on with a short camp.

Great points made on both sides. Re watched Conor/Siver and Siver took Conor down twice couldn't hold him there though. In that fight, lots of kicks which I'm sure Conor will adjust his game plan but his hands were pinpoint. Let me add Mendes on another planet than Siver but same size and yes Conor had his hands very low.

Saturday's leans, bored at work figure a few guys might wanna look.
McGregor
MacDonald
Bermudez
Thatch
Almeida
Means
Pendred
Garbrandt
Smolka

Thanks for the early leans man, u got any big plays this weekend?

In case u forgot, Mcgregor is not here to take part, he is here to take over!

I think my post #5 in this thread is big enough!!!!!!!!! Actually you can get better value than I did too.

Well I guess for Conor it's put up or shut up!!!!!!!!!! He finally gets a elite wrestler that many have been waiting for.

I don't think I'll put in a bet for the main event until after the post weigh-in square off.  Get a better idea of size and reach.  

I never post a play normally until after I seen these goofballs weigh in. Now I do pre play and hope I'm not on a overweight guy. Btw its usually the same usual suspects that never make weight. I reached on ITD in the big fight but knowing me I probably would have played 540 to win 200 anyways. I can't see these guys going past 20 minutes tops.

it sucks man, my local only offers o/u 2.5 rds.

Mamba 5dimes has all you can imagine!!!! Grab a $50 and go to work.

Same here but still have been able to make Ferrari plays work very well.. Sometimes I'll take the under if it correlates well with his thoughts on the match