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UFC 183

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Posted: #1
52-41 +18.0 prior

First lean: 

Gastelum -140 over Woodley
Both fighters have good wrestling although I think Gastelum is a bit better in the scramble. More importantly though, Gastelum is a much better striker at range. Woodley loads up that power shot and I think Gastelum is patient enough to just pick him apart from distance while T-Wood loads up that power.

I'll have some more, just wanted to start this thread to get the discussion going on this card.
 
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Posted: #2
I agree with gastelum he is a great young fighter and he would be wise not to stand with Woodley I like gastelum by decision especially since he can be had at -125 now. 
 
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Posted: #3
A couple more leans guys:

Brandao Inside Distance +160 over Hettes 
Diego Brandao is not a top ten guy and he's lost to the upper echelon of the division (Elkins, Poirier, Conor), but at the end of the day, he's better in every area than Hettes. In Hettes' strongest area, grappling, Brandao still has a large advantage. I only worry about Brandao's gas tank, but if there is anyone around Diego who cares about him, that will be worked out for this fight.

Rafael Natal -175 over Tom Watson
Watson gets taken down by everyone. At a 47% takedown defense, he is the epitome of the decent-striking Brit with no TDD. In his fights with Catone, Leites, Nedkov, and Tavares, he gave up 5 takedowns in EACH fight. When Natal is able to takedown fighters (2 against Camozzi, 4 against Spencer, 6 against Kuiper) he tends to win those fights. Natal will not have the decided striking disadvantage against Tom, but he will be able to score in the TD.

McMann by decision +110 over Miesha Tate
Very similar. I feel like a broken record. These two ladies are very grapple-oriented fighters and while Miesha's gameplan is likely to stand outside and box, I don't think she'll have a huge advantage there and will end up on her back time and time again, where she's not particularly good at sweeping or subs.

Thiago Santos -170 over Andy Enz
Santos will have the decided striking advantage over Enz and while Enz is slightly better in the sub, he's not the best in transition, controlling opponents on the mat, or in the takedown. 

I may have 1 or 2 more as the week goes on. Good luck!

 
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Posted: #4
My favorite line for the main event is Silva ITD -135. There are too many unknowns for me to bet it personally, but I think if we see even a shell of what Anderson looked like prior to the injury, there's no doubt Anderson eventually finishes him inside 5 rounds. 

From '06 to '12, Silva went 17-0 with 15 finishes. His only decisions were against guys who wanted no part of the stand-up with him - Leites and Maia. During that time, Anderson put away guys like Yushin, Vitor, Forrest, Hendo, Rich Franklin, Chael, & Nate while in their primes and probably most on the juice. People still underestimate what Weidman was able to do. Anderson is too big for Nick and still will have the power and accuracy, which most often leaves guys last. It's usually speed and the chin that goes first and that's my only worry.
 
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Posted: #5
Its Impossible to back Anderson. The bending ankle image is still in the head. I like the Natal play tho looks like half the battle is won before the fight begins on that one.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by LONG-TU:

Its Impossible to back Anderson. The bending ankle image is still in the head. I like the Natal play tho looks like half the battle is won before the fight begins on that one.


I feel ya. If it makes you feel any better, it's impossible for Silva to break that leg again with all the steel supporting it. And since Nick doesn't check leg kicks, I wouldn't be too worried about the other leg either.
 
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Posted: #7
[Quote: Originally Posted by OnTheO] A couple more leans guys:

Brandao Inside Distance +160 over Hettes 
Diego Brandao is not a top ten guy and he's lost to the upper echelon of the division (Elkins, Poirier, Conor), but at the end of the day, he's better in every area than Hettes. In Hettes' strongest area, grappling, Brandao still has a large advantage. I only worry about Brandao's gas tank, but if there is anyone around Diego who cares about him, that will be worked out for this fight.

Rafael Natal -175 over Tom Watson
Watson gets taken down by everyone. At a 47% takedown defense, he is the epitome of the decent-striking Brit with no TDD. In his fights with Catone, Leites, Nedkov, and Tavares, he gave up 5 takedowns in EACH fight. When Natal is able to takedown fighters (2 against Camozzi, 4 against Spencer, 6 against Kuiper) he tends to win those fights. Natal will not have the decided striking disadvantage against Tom, but he will be able to score in the TD.

McMann by decision +110 over Miesha Tate
Very similar. I feel like a broken record. These two ladies are very grapple-oriented fighters and while Miesha's gameplan is likely to stand outside and box, I don't think she'll have a huge advantage there and will end up on her back time and time again, where she's not particularly good at sweeping or subs.

Thiago Santos -170 over Andy Enz
Santos will have the decided striking advantage over Enz and while Enz is slightly better in the sub, he's not the best in transition, controlling opponents on the mat, or in the takedown. 

I may have 1 or 2 more as the week goes on. Good luck!
 
So far, when I've picked against you, I've been wrong, but just wondering why you think McMann will have a wrestling advantage over Tate?  I just think Tate is younger and has improved recently and represents decent value at +170 in what I see as a toss-up fight.  It's not like McMann has beat anyone that great unless that last girl was really good.  I vaguely remember that being a big wrestling match that she controversially won.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

A couple more leans guys:Brandao Inside Distance +160 over Hettes Diego Brandao is not a top ten guy and he's lost to the upper echelon of the division (Elkins, Poirier, Conor), but at the end of the day, he's better in every area than Hettes. In Hettes' strongest area, grappling, Brandao still has a large advantage. I only worry about Brandao's gas tank, but if there is anyone around Diego who cares about him, that will be worked out for this fight.Rafael Natal -175 over Tom WatsonWatson gets taken down by everyone. At a 47% takedown defense, he is the epitome of the decent-striking Brit with no TDD. In his fights with Catone, Leites, Nedkov, and Tavares, he gave up 5 takedowns in EACH fight. When Natal is able to takedown fighters (2 against Camozzi, 4 against Spencer, 6 against Kuiper) he tends to win those fights. Natal will not have the decided striking disadvantage against Tom, but he will be able to score in the TD.McMann by decision +110 over Miesha TateVery similar. I feel like a broken record. These two ladies are very grapple-oriented fighters and while Miesha's gameplan is likely to stand outside and box, I don't think she'll have a huge advantage there and will end up on her back time and time again, where she's not particularly good at sweeping or subs.Thiago Santos -170 over Andy EnzSantos will have the decided striking advantage over Enz and while Enz is slightly better in the sub, he's not the best in transition, controlling opponents on the mat, or in the takedown. I may have 1 or 2 more as the week goes on. Good luck!



Agreed on all but I might play Hettes, value play. Gas tank issues and has Diego ever listened to his corner???
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:


 
So far, when I've picked against you, I've been wrong, but just wondering why you think McMann will have a wrestling advantage over Tate?  I just think Tate is younger and has improved recently and represents decent value at +170 in what I see as a toss-up fight.  It's not like McMann has beat anyone that great unless that last girl was really good.  I vaguely remember that being a big wrestling match that she controversially won.


I don't think Tate has improved recently at all. Since Rousey, she's lost a battle of wills to cat, had a somewhat controversial win over carmouche, and an uninspiring win against one of the worst fighters in the ufc.

Sara is an Olympian. Besides Rousey, she has taken every single opponent down, and even Rousey wanted to keep her out from on the legs. On the other hand, Tate has lost takedowns and scrambles to several opponents.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

A couple more leans guys:Brandao Inside Distance +160 over Hettes Diego Brandao is not a top ten guy and he's lost to the upper echelon of the division (Elkins, Poirier, Conor), but at the end of the day, he's better in every area than Hettes. In Hettes' strongest area, grappling, Brandao still has a large advantage. I only worry about Brandao's gas tank, but if there is anyone around Diego who cares about him, that will be worked out for this fight.Rafael Natal -175 over Tom WatsonWatson gets taken down by everyone. At a 47% takedown defense, he is the epitome of the decent-striking Brit with no TDD. In his fights with Catone, Leites, Nedkov, and Tavares, he gave up 5 takedowns in EACH fight. When Natal is able to takedown fighters (2 against Camozzi, 4 against Spencer, 6 against Kuiper) he tends to win those fights. Natal will not have the decided striking disadvantage against Tom, but he will be able to score in the TD.McMann by decision +110 over Miesha TateVery similar. I feel like a broken record. These two ladies are very grapple-oriented fighters and while Miesha's gameplan is likely to stand outside and box, I don't think she'll have a huge advantage there and will end up on her back time and time again, where she's not particularly good at sweeping or subs.Thiago Santos -170 over Andy EnzSantos will have the decided striking advantage over Enz and while Enz is slightly better in the sub, he's not the best in transition, controlling opponents on the mat, or in the takedown. I may have 1 or 2 more as the week goes on. Good luck!
Agreed on all but I might play Hettes, value play. Gas tank issues and has Diego ever listened to his corner???


I just don't think it'll matter, tbh. I see Diego finding his chin in the first 2 minutes and finishing him against the cage by TKO after Hettes staggers away.
 
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Posted: #11
I like the Brandao and natal picks. My favorite pick on the whole card is joe lauzon +165 too much value on who I consider a better overall and more experienced fighter. Lauzon will submit him.
 
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Posted: #12
kinda quiet on the Western front this week!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

kinda quiet on the Western front this week!!!!!!!!


I think it's fitting to ask - "where you at, mutherfukkers?" 209, what!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

My favorite line for the main event is Silva ITD -135. There are too many unknowns for me to bet it personally, but I think if we see even a shell of what Anderson looked like prior to the injury, there's no doubt Anderson eventually finishes him inside 5 rounds. 

From '06 to '12, Silva went 17-0 with 15 finishes. His only decisions were against guys who wanted no part of the stand-up with him - Leites and Maia. 
I'm glad to hear you say this, because I have been loading up on this bet since it opened at even money.  After a hot streak on parlays (Viva Colombia), I now care more about Silva's method of victory than about that football game on Sunday.  If I weren't already so heavy on it, I would still be happy taking -135.  It seems like many people, including Long-Tu, have been kept away by the unshakable image of Anderson's gumby leg and maybe by the first Weidman fight, too.  If AS didn't think that his leg is ready for this, I really believe that he would not have taken this fight.

Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

 
Anderson is too big for Nick and still will have the power and accuracy, which most often leaves guys last. It's usually speed and the chin that goes first and that's my only worry.

I agree that this is the biggest risk.  In my opinion, accuracy has been the main factor that separated Anderson from other humans, although speed of some sort of neural process is an integral part of that.  Some people feel that a decline in Silva's speed and/or chin may have contributed to his 1st loss vs. Weidman, although that seems like a stretch to me.  I'm not too worried about it, but I have substantial money on the Under (<3.5) as a partial hedge.  If a slow, fragile Anderson shows up, then maybe he'll get hit a lot and get knocked out early.  I'll be pretty shocked if it happens, but nowhere near as shocked as I was at the end of Silva's last two fights! 


Rousey-9 vs. Rousey-5,8:
I like your McMann by decision pick a lot.  I hadn't looked at that before, so thanks for that.  Tate was once very popular, and McMann is still relatively unknown.  That seems to be biasing the odds here.

Mini-Cain vs. Mini-Rumble:
Gastelum, on the other hand, I might still be willing to lose one more bet against.  Before the Rick Story and Ellenberger fights, I felt that he was facing a big step up in competition that he might or might not be ready for.  He should be able to pick apart Woodley and grind out a decision, but I'm just not convinced that the chances Kelvin prevails are 70%.  I'll probably just stay away, but my leans on this would be a small bet on Woodley in the 1st (+500) with a hedge on Gastelum by decision (+300) or UD.


 
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Posted: #15
^^ thank you for your thoughts. As the week has gone on, my Gastelum pick has felt weaker and weaker as I've watched more of them both. The advantages in the stand-up and wrestling is almost 0 on both sides. I still slightly lean Gastelum, but may end up passing altogether come fight night.

One thing I'd like to say about this card in particular is that I think the weigh-ins are pretty important in comparison to other cards. Alves, Gastelum, Lineker, McCall and brandao have all had weight or scale issues in the past. I'd like to see how Anderson looks considering he's nearly 40 and probably didn't get any smaller in his layoff. A lot of value can be lost by betting late (believe me, I've slapped myself a few times for waiting), but just something I've noticed.

 
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Posted: #16
Both these guys have power in their hands and good wrestling, might come down to who's got a better chin and I'm liking Gastellum in that regard. Both are tough as nails though, it should be a good fight.
 
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Posted: #17
What do you guys think if Mein vs. Alves ?
Iam leaning heavy on Mein would love to hear sime inputs on the fight. Thanks
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by LONG-TU:

What do you guys think if Mein vs. Alves ? Iam leaning heavy on Mein would love to hear sime inputs on the fight. Thanks


Both guys have great TDD and not very great wrestling. Alves has a little weaker chin IMO. Both have decent power, but I prefer alves's. Both usually show up in good shape and ready. Jordan is super aggressive - from the Matt brown school of angry pressure. Alves is better technically, and uses leg kicks really well. Alves has fought the best of the best in his career. Alves has the long layoff/injury issues. Gun to my head, I think Alves wins a close decision where he just outpoints Mein slightly, but I'm just hoping for FOTN where it's a back and forth slugfest. Great matchmaking.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

kinda quiet on the Western front this week!!!!!!!!

Lmao, I'll be back later with some fight insight since your thread is the place to be!!!
 
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Posted: #20
Ok O here you go: Silva looked great yesterday, if he wants a title shot, he better dust off this overrated welterweight fast.
Mini Cain vs. Tyrone. Boy where to start, I'll start by saying Shields fought after his dad had just past, 7 days to be exact. My dad passed on the 20th of December and I'm still kinda numb. Bet if Shields fought him again he'd be 4-1. Jake quit against Gastelum and he made him pay, which I loved. Now fighting a quitter dropping out of the top 10 and fighting a guy top 5, different story. But Tyrone has tank issues, fighter IQ issues which Gastelum doesn't, but he can throw bombs. Heard Woodley was at the ROUFUS camp working on his boxing, that could be scarey!!!! I'm playing Tyrone but if the bell sounds for Round 3, I'm dead in the water!!!! TBC
 
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Posted: #21
Part 2, I can see why guys will play Lauzon, gonna try to make it a ground war, if Iaq let's him, they win. Liked the Mein line since I first saw it, like it more everyday. Mein has a 6 inch reach advantage, flowing strikes, nice combo's and isn't afraid to trade. Alves, weight issues, injuries, a lot of miles on them tires, not sure if he blowns one this Saturday. Miesha Tate has the fighter IQ like her fake boobs, lots of air. Not sold on McMann either and with it going past 2-1, I might play implanted Tate. TBC again.
 
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Posted: #22
Part 3 O, you bored yet??? Ok moving on McCall/Lineker, Uncle Creepy vs. Hands of Stone!!!! Why isn't this on the main card, WTF!!! McCall says he's gonna box, get TD, move in and out, blah, blah, blah. He wants to stand and trade!!! Lineker, IF he makes weight and that's a big IF I think gets it done and the line is juicey too. Ok O lots to chew on, no issues with picking it apart.
 
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Posted: #23
Ferrari, sorry about your dad. That's never easy.

Now, lots of thoughts in that. Shields is great, no questioning that. His main problem is that he is expensive and not the most exciting fighter. Add Fitch, Okami, and askren there too.

Speaking of askren, yeah, tyron was up with Roufus seeing his university of mizzou buddy. 3 weeks of training is nice, but I don't expect tyron to be jump kicking off the cage quite yet. This will be the toughest test Gastelum has had to date, but he's not a stranger to being the underdog. This is a very tight fight to call.

Iaquinta has fought plenty of worse fighters before who have submitted him. He should win, but Lauzon is tricky.

Crazy thing about Alves-Mein, more wear on Mein's tires. Kid has been fighting consistently forever. He just looks like he 17.

Good luck bro.
 
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Posted: #24
 
 
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Posted: #25
Wow gastelum was 9 pounds overweight line has flipped to Woodley -165 crazy
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