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UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2 Predictions

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Posted: #26
-110 any day for Melvin
 
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Posted: #27
Thanks, as always, for your outstanding insight, crowat.  You should ask for a raise, given that 5/6 ESPN's MMA "Experts" have career 'capping records below 52%.  I'm not sure if you look at the odds before making picks, but they sure should. They could do a lot better by just picking straight favorites.  

With regard to shaps17's question about HW fights over 3 rounds, Randy vs. Silvia (in 2007) was the last one in the UFC. Cormier vs. Barnett in Strikeforce went 5 rounds in May of this year. 

His general point is certainly correct historically.  I don't really understand why long heavyweight fights are so rare.  Of 158 heavyweight fights since 2009, 23% were 3-round decisions.  This would seem to suggest that the likelihood of a 5-round HW fight making it into the 4th round should be at least in the ballpark of 20%, but that hasn't been the case.  I'm still searching for exact numbers; none of the databases I've found consistently indicates which fights were scheduled for 5 rounds.


 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by McDoc:

Thanks, as always, for your outstanding insight, crowat.  You should ask for a raise, given that 5/6 ESPN's MMA "Experts" have career 'capping records below 52%.  I'm not sure if you look at the odds before making picks, but they sure should. They could do a lot better by just picking straight favorites.  

With regard to shaps17's question about HW fights over 3 rounds, Randy vs. Silvia (in 2007) was the last one in the UFC. Cormier vs. Barnett in Strikeforce went 5 rounds in May of this year. 

His general point is certainly correct historically.  I don't really understand why long heavyweight fights are so rare.  Of 158 heavyweight fights since 2009, 23% were 3-round decisions.  This would seem to suggest that the likelihood of a 5-round HW fight making it into the 4th round should be at least in the ballpark of 20%, but that hasn't been the case.  I'm still searching for exact numbers; none of the databases I've found consistently indicates which fights were scheduled for 5 rounds.




Get me an interview with eSPN! =) They'd need to get someone to type for me as my grammar is terrible. Thanks for the <3 though.
 
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Posted: #29
Looking at the odds it would seem that I'm on 5 dogs tonight, Costa is only a slight dog @ my book though. 
 
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Posted: #30
Wow called a ton of fights wrong, sorry to anyone who tailed. Great fight by Cain. I'll write up the results later.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by shaps17:

Im wondering when was the last time a heavyweight match went 4 rounds


<3
 
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Posted: #32
Crowat - I don't follow MMA - read your Cain write-up and won +170.  

You had great 20-20 hindsight on Cain!!  
 
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Posted: #33
glad you won some money!
 
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Posted: #34
(1012) Constantinos Philippou +105
(1010) Jim Miller -205 
 
(1006) Yushin "Thunder" Okami -120 


(1001) Cain Velasquez +180 
Win

Risk CA$ 9.00 to win CA$ 131.91

That Ssaved my night, undercard was not
nice to me, lost some bets with bad calls
on Michael Johnson and Chris Leben.
 
 
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Posted: #35
Moraga - Looked at least a weight class bigger than Cariaso, bad capping by me here, Moraga is pretty good. 0 - 1

Holloway - Didn't look as good as I thought he would but still a solid win coming in on short notice for the youngster. 1 - 1

Todd Duffe - Solid return to the UFC for the big man, I still don't think he is that good but time will tell. 1 - 2


Myles Jury - Wow did he ever look good, perfect game plan to take out Johnson.  1 - 3

Vaner - bad fight, I think Melvin needs to go get some dominant wins outside the UFC. 1 - 4

Perez - dominating win of a guy who probably isn't long for the UFC.  2 - 4

Wineland - frustrated Pickett with his straight punches most of the fight, good win to move up the ladder for Eddie. 2 - 5

Brunson - worst fight on the card, he didn't look that good and Leben looked even worse. 2 - 6

Okami - Not many out there that can stop the grappling / wrestling / judo tri-fecta from Okami. 3 - 6

Philippou - Weird fight, but i'll take it. 4 - 6

Miller - Excellent fight, Miller was just a bit better everywhere. 5 - 6

Cain - called this one well, Cain is the better fighter over-all and wins that fight 9 out of 10 times.  6 - 6


Event: 6 - 6
2012 Record: 111 - 56




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