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UFC 127 Fitch vs Penn

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by Delpo:

Fitch has only lost one fight since 2002 and that was to GSP and even tho he got his ass beat, I think he gave more of a run then any of Kos, Alves or Hardy did. I think this will look exactly like the Alves vs Fitch fight. Fitch puts him down, wears him down and pulls out a decision. I even think a suprise KO from Fitch could be in the cards because. Fitch has one hell of a chin so BJ's knockout ability doesnt worry me nearly as much as it would in other fights against a wrestler (Hughes).

  I hope we are right.

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

When is the last time fitch lost? And guess who it was against? he is something like 13-1 since joining UFC and his only loss was to GSP..Fitch is a beast, obviously Penn is a great fighter but i think Fitch will control the fight and Fitch didnt really let Alves get anything done on the feet so i think Penns standup wont dominate either.. Fitch is always well prepared and he is a cardio maniac. He will put full pressure on Penn and do the same gameplan that GSP pulled on penn.  

Im hammering Jon Fitch..  Fitch is definitely not a lock but i love him at -167 odds...

 



MoneyShot

I was on board with Fitch just mauling Penn and wearing him down then I got to thinking. Fitch's wrestling is different from Edgar and GSPs. They rely more on explosiveness and shooting for the takedown. Fitch is more of a he needs to get his hands on you then he trips and takes you down.

I was thinking about hammering Fitch before this then I got to thinking. Penn will probably win the 1st round with his boxing and TDD but things will definitely get interesting in the 2nd round. Will Fitch be able to tire Penn enough and close the distance to take him down? I think that's the biggest question. Fitch will definitely be stronger in the 3rd round but the 2nd round could be the deciding factor in the fight. I don't know maybe I'll just make Fitch a regular play instead of a hammer. We'll see.
 
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Posted: #28
Fitch
 
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Posted: #29

Frank

Eric 

 
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Posted: #30

do you guys remember when GSP faught BJ in vegas their last fight? BJ had good take down D for a round or 2, and his rubber guard/ guard had gsp neutralized. I really hate BJ penn, but I think he has a better shot than most will give him here. I dont think fitch is as good as a wrassler' as gsp.

 
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Posted: #31
just read Hughes is training with Penn. Penn has said Fitch will be surprised when they grapple/clinch. Interesting to hear that from Penn
 
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Posted: #32
I dont claim to be an expert on MMA and I am bigger fan of Fitch then most it seems but Penn is too small to beat anybody in top of this weight class.  If White didnt hate Fitch or if he was a huge mouth like KOS he would have fought GSP last fight, IMO.
The hardest part about a 2 week war is the first 4 years
 
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Posted: #33

This is one of my strongest plays ever,  i put a lot of money on it, and i rarely throw  out that kind of confidence on any match ever whether its MMA or NFL or NBA.. I just love Fitch here. I hope i didnt just jinx myself though.

 
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Posted: #34
Just added more because the line was -182 when its near -200 at most places..
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by deserted:

do you guys remember when GSP faught BJ in vegas their last fight? BJ had good take down D for a round or 2, and his rubber guard/ guard had gsp neutralized. I really hate BJ penn, but I think he has a better shot than most will give him here. I dont think fitch is as good as a wrassler' as gsp.

I would have to agree with this as well.  GSP said himself that his gameplan was to use the first 2 rounds to grind him against the cage and to wear out his shoulders to make it easier to take him down in the latter rounds.  I too hate Penn because he's a whiny little dick, but I have to admit, when he's fresh his TDD and rubber guard is bar none.  In a 3 round fight, I just don't know if Fitch will be able to dominate Penn as most on this thread seem to think.  I won't be playing much on this fight, I hate both of these fighters equally.  I might play Penn really small just to have a bit of action so I can watch the fight for something.  BOL on your plays

 
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Posted: #36
GL 
 
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Posted: #37
Im the biggest Bj fan out there but I dont like his chances against Fitch.  I think u guys are gonna win some loot.  Dont have heart to bet agsint BJ though    BOL to everyone
 
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Posted: #38
This is a lock for the Penn-Fitch fight...

Penn +3.5 at -215.  If Penn wins the fight or doesnt lose worse than 30-27...you win.  How can this lose?  Fitch isnt gonna get a stoppage.  Fitch is 10-1 to win by KO and 10-1 to win by sub.  Either Penn pulls off an inside distance win, or Fitch wins 30-27, you win either way.  Is he really gonna get a 10-8 round?  I love this play.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:

This is a lock for the Penn-Fitch fight...

Penn +3.5 at -215.  If Penn wins the fight or doesnt lose worse than 30-27...you win.  How can this lose?  Fitch isnt gonna get a stoppage.  Fitch is 10-1 to win by KO and 10-1 to win by sub.  Either Penn pulls off an inside distance win, or Fitch wins 30-27, you win either way.  Is he really gonna get a 10-8 round?  I love this play.




Wow.............................. I thought you had been around the boxing forums long enough to understand this.

You get 3.5 pts spread across the cards of 3 judges, meaning if they all score the fight 29-28 Fitch, you'd win. Anything worse than that you lose.

You basically need Penn to win one round. I actually think that's not a bad bet, but your perception of how it works is wrong.

Hope it didn't make a huge play. GL
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

I dont claim to be an expert on MMA and I am bigger fan of Fitch then most it seems but Penn is too small to beat anybody in top of this weight class.  If White didnt hate Fitch or if he was a huge mouth like KOS he would have fought GSP last fight, IMO.


Penn can handle bigger fighters.  went the distance with Machida.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:





Wow.............................. I thought you had been around the boxing forums long enough to understand this.

You get 3.5 pts spread across the cards of 3 judges, meaning if they all score the fight 29-28 Fitch, you'd win. Anything worse than that you lose.

You basically need Penn to win one round. I actually think that's not a bad bet, but your perception of how it works is wrong.

Hope it didn't make a huge play. GL


You're right, a brain fart.
 
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Posted: #42
BJ looked to have a bad right leg at the weigh-in's, he seemed to be limping. Also left his pants on. Possible right leg injury ?
 
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Posted: #43

I also need Rivera to win me a 4 fight parlay which would win me $250 off a $10 bet.. and i have $200 on Rivera to win so it would be pretty sweet if rivera can somehow pull off an upset, i just hope it doesnt go to a decision cause i dont think rivera will win a decision...

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by tyson895:

BJ looked to have a bad right leg at the weigh-in's, he seemed to be limping. Also left his pants on. Possible right leg injury ?

i hope you are right!!! I did not see the weigh ins but obviously that would help fitch out huge..

 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46
Hey man, I totally agree with you on fitch. I really like parlaying with favs to make the money right. Who would you say would be your strongest 2nd and 3rd?

I actually did a small parlay with the big favs tonight. I was thinking of doing another one with jorge but.. I really have a hard time thinking he will beat bisbing. I just feel bisbing is much more rounded and been in the rings with a lot better. What was your angle on picking rivera?
 
 
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Posted: #47
Rivera is not winning this fight, nor do I expect it to be competitive.  Bisping only loses to the top guys.
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