Posted:
#1
34-34
The pick:
Valentina SHEVCHENKO -105 over Amanda NUNES
I am a big fan of Nunes and she paid me off in the biggest of big ways against Rousey.
Having said that, I am taking her to lose a VERY close fight to Shevchenko tonight.
The reasons:
1. Revenge - Obvious. It's much tougher to beat the same opponent twice in a row.
2. The 5 Rounds - The first fight was 3 rounds. This is tailor made for a Shevchenko victory if she lasts the 5 rounds. The gameplan is clear: Let Nunes punch herself out in rounds 1 and 2 and go to work in 3, 4, and 5.
1,1,3,1,1,3,1,1. Those are the number of rounds Nunes has gone in the last 8. The longer this goes, the worse it gets for Nunes.
3. Holly Holm - Shevchenko had a nice lead in fight here going 5 rounds with a heavy striker (but inferior), like Nunes in Holm, and then had a more technical fight against Pena. She's won 7 of her last 8, her only loss being to Nunes. I like the priming she's had. The same can't be said for Nunes who's only test in the past half year came against Rousey In a fight she was ready to lose from the sound of the bell. Before that it was Tate and Tate is not Shevchenko.
4. The defense - I love the way Shevchenko handled Nunes in the first fight and kept the powerful striker at bay early in the fight. I also loved her in the clinch as well. For all the pounding Nunes gave Valentina, she kept coming back and even escaped a rear naked choke.
Nunes tried everything and although she wasn't saved by the bell, if there were two more rounds, like there are here, it would have been a different outcome.
5. Shevchenko's desire - Hungrier, training at altitude in Denver, building to this her entire life. To me more focused. If she overcomes an early and ferocious pounding (which she has to be game planning for), she will win.
It will be close but I agree with Papa on this one. Valentina at the buzzer. I love Nunes but my money says otherwise.
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