Very similar fighters here. About the same size, very good in the sub. It's been nearly 5 years since Parke has lost (to Joseph Duffy, btw - also the last guy to beat Conor; Duffy was just signed to the UFC last week). I think Parke will be a bit better technical striker and mix up his strikes. Tibau will be a bit stronger and better on top in the grapple. The difference? Endurance. Parke wins nearly every 2nd and 3rd round while Tibau tends to fade late. For you live bettors, this may provide good value if Tibau can win the first round but looks very tired in between 1-2.
Sean Spencer -165 over Cathal Pendred
Cathal has had that luck of the Irish thus far. He just has a way of finding fighters who can't outlast him, try to outmuscle him, etc. Sean will pick him apart on the feet and stay out of the way of Cathal's takedowns.
Charles Rosa -130 over Sean Soriano
2 cats who have just been thrown to the wolves going 0-3 in the UFC. Rosa dropping 1 to Siver and Soriano losing to Kawajiri and Chas Skelly. I really think Rosa does everything better and dominates everywhere in this one.
Shane Howell +225 over Patrick Holohan
I think this is a closer fight than what people would expect and pretty close to a pick 'em. Shane just needs to avoid the ground, which is entirely possible. Hooligan is pretty good at submissions but not that great at takedowns.
McGregor/Siver starts round 2 +110
I think Siver is crafty and tough enough to last round 1. Plus he's not stupid or emotional enough to think he can walk through Conor.
Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO -120
Stand-up fight where Hall will have every advantage.
I may have a few more coming up. Good luck...
UFC FN 159 leans:
Norman Parke (+120) over Gleison Tibau
Very similar fighters here. About the same size, very good in the sub. It's been nearly 5 years since Parke has lost (to Joseph Duffy, btw - also the last guy to beat Conor; Duffy was just signed to the UFC last week). I think Parke will be a bit better technical striker and mix up his strikes. Tibau will be a bit stronger and better on top in the grapple. The difference? Endurance. Parke wins nearly every 2nd and 3rd round while Tibau tends to fade late. For you live bettors, this may provide good value if Tibau can win the first round but looks very tired in between 1-2.
Sean Spencer -165 over Cathal Pendred
Cathal has had that luck of the Irish thus far. He just has a way of finding fighters who can't outlast him, try to outmuscle him, etc. Sean will pick him apart on the feet and stay out of the way of Cathal's takedowns.
Charles Rosa -130 over Sean Soriano
2 cats who have just been thrown to the wolves going 0-3 in the UFC. Rosa dropping 1 to Siver and Soriano losing to Kawajiri and Chas Skelly. I really think Rosa does everything better and dominates everywhere in this one.
Shane Howell +225 over Patrick Holohan
I think this is a closer fight than what people would expect and pretty close to a pick 'em. Shane just needs to avoid the ground, which is entirely possible. Hooligan is pretty good at submissions but not that great at takedowns.
McGregor/Siver starts round 2 +110
I think Siver is crafty and tough enough to last round 1. Plus he's not stupid or emotional enough to think he can walk through Conor.
Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO -120
Stand-up fight where Hall will have every advantage.
Oh, and if you care, I slightly favor Cerrone to best Bendo, just based on the trajectories of their careers. I won't have a bet on this one but I imagine this is the one people will care most about in the betting world. I just think Cowboy building his fight ranch has improved his game drastically and Bendo seems to be fading. That being said, this is a fight that will likely be a very close decision where one camp will be complaining about a decision. I hate having money in those fights.
Oh, and if you care, I slightly favor Cerrone to best Bendo, just based on the trajectories of their careers. I won't have a bet on this one but I imagine this is the one people will care most about in the betting world. I just think Cowboy building his fight ranch has improved his game drastically and Bendo seems to be fading. That being said, this is a fight that will likely be a very close decision where one camp will be complaining about a decision. I hate having money in those fights.
Very similar fighters here. About the same size, very good in the sub. It's been nearly 5 years since Parke has lost (to Joseph Duffy, btw - also the last guy to beat Conor; Duffy was just signed to the UFC last week). I think Parke will be a bit better technical striker and mix up his strikes. Tibau will be a bit stronger and better on top in the grapple. The difference? Endurance. Parke wins nearly every 2nd and 3rd round while Tibau tends to fade late. For you live bettors, this may provide good value if Tibau can win the first round but looks very tired in between 1-2.
Sean Spencer -165 over Cathal Pendred
Cathal has had that luck of the Irish thus far. He just has a way of finding fighters who can't outlast him, try to outmuscle him, etc. Sean will pick him apart on the feet and stay out of the way of Cathal's takedowns.
Charles Rosa -130 over Sean Soriano
2 cats who have just been thrown to the wolves going 0-3 in the UFC. Rosa dropping 1 to Siver and Soriano losing to Kawajiri and Chas Skelly. I really think Rosa does everything better and dominates everywhere in this one.
Shane Howell +225 over Patrick Holohan
I think this is a closer fight than what people would expect and pretty close to a pick 'em. Shane just needs to avoid the ground, which is entirely possible. Hooligan is pretty good at submissions but not that great at takedowns.
McGregor/Siver starts round 2 +110
I think Siver is crafty and tough enough to last round 1. Plus he's not stupid or emotional enough to think he can walk through Conor.
Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO -120
Stand-up fight where Hall will have every advantage.
I may have a few more coming up. Good luck...
Really good stuff O!!!!!! I disagree with the Siver making it past the 1st round though. Cub lasered him and "the GOAT" will be correct on his prediction. But at plus 120 I can see your point.
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:
UFC FN 159 leans:
Norman Parke (+120) over Gleison Tibau
Very similar fighters here. About the same size, very good in the sub. It's been nearly 5 years since Parke has lost (to Joseph Duffy, btw - also the last guy to beat Conor; Duffy was just signed to the UFC last week). I think Parke will be a bit better technical striker and mix up his strikes. Tibau will be a bit stronger and better on top in the grapple. The difference? Endurance. Parke wins nearly every 2nd and 3rd round while Tibau tends to fade late. For you live bettors, this may provide good value if Tibau can win the first round but looks very tired in between 1-2.
Sean Spencer -165 over Cathal Pendred
Cathal has had that luck of the Irish thus far. He just has a way of finding fighters who can't outlast him, try to outmuscle him, etc. Sean will pick him apart on the feet and stay out of the way of Cathal's takedowns.
Charles Rosa -130 over Sean Soriano
2 cats who have just been thrown to the wolves going 0-3 in the UFC. Rosa dropping 1 to Siver and Soriano losing to Kawajiri and Chas Skelly. I really think Rosa does everything better and dominates everywhere in this one.
Shane Howell +225 over Patrick Holohan
I think this is a closer fight than what people would expect and pretty close to a pick 'em. Shane just needs to avoid the ground, which is entirely possible. Hooligan is pretty good at submissions but not that great at takedowns.
McGregor/Siver starts round 2 +110
I think Siver is crafty and tough enough to last round 1. Plus he's not stupid or emotional enough to think he can walk through Conor.
Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO -120
Stand-up fight where Hall will have every advantage.
I may have a few more coming up. Good luck...
Really good stuff O!!!!!! I disagree with the Siver making it past the 1st round though. Cub lasered him and "the GOAT" will be correct on his prediction. But at plus 120 I can see your point.
I like the odds for Siver/McGoat getting out the first round, but I can't convince myself of seeing how Siver getting out of this one. He has a block for a head and McGoat is always moving forward. Once he gets tagged, I think it's over. Siver uses the push kick effectively, but his movements leave him susceptible to getting some nice hooks to the face.
I like the odds for Siver/McGoat getting out the first round, but I can't convince myself of seeing how Siver getting out of this one. He has a block for a head and McGoat is always moving forward. Once he gets tagged, I think it's over. Siver uses the push kick effectively, but his movements leave him susceptible to getting some nice hooks to the face.
I like the odds for Siver/McGoat getting out the first round, but I can't convince myself of seeing how Siver getting out of this one. He has a block for a head and McGoat is always moving forward. Once he gets tagged, I think it's over. Siver uses the push kick effectively, but his movements leave him susceptible to getting some nice hooks to the face.
Thank you for the thoughtful post. I will admit it was more of an odds lean than anything. I actually looked at the "Not McGregor in round 1" prop but it paid worse than this.
31 pro fights for Siver with only 2 T/KO losses - one to Cub recently in round 3 of the fight and 1 by Guillard in '09 in the first.
OTOH, McGregor has 12 of his 16 wins in the first round 14 of 16 by T/KO.
I like Siver's head movement, his experience, his toughness, his footwork, but 5 minutes is a loooong time against a guy who will have the speed, length, and size advantage and who doesn't necessarily have a back-step.
One of those I'll just have to think over.
Quote Originally Posted by MrWonderful:
I like the odds for Siver/McGoat getting out the first round, but I can't convince myself of seeing how Siver getting out of this one. He has a block for a head and McGoat is always moving forward. Once he gets tagged, I think it's over. Siver uses the push kick effectively, but his movements leave him susceptible to getting some nice hooks to the face.
Thank you for the thoughtful post. I will admit it was more of an odds lean than anything. I actually looked at the "Not McGregor in round 1" prop but it paid worse than this.
31 pro fights for Siver with only 2 T/KO losses - one to Cub recently in round 3 of the fight and 1 by Guillard in '09 in the first.
OTOH, McGregor has 12 of his 16 wins in the first round 14 of 16 by T/KO.
I like Siver's head movement, his experience, his toughness, his footwork, but 5 minutes is a loooong time against a guy who will have the speed, length, and size advantage and who doesn't necessarily have a back-step.
You better be getting alot better than 1-1 odds on Siver surviving the first round. Siver's problem is McGregor doesnt mess around in his fights. There is no feeling out. He is attack mode from the start and his striking is so unconventional there's no way to prepare for it. When he hits guys, they stay hurt.
You better be getting alot better than 1-1 odds on Siver surviving the first round. Siver's problem is McGregor doesnt mess around in his fights. There is no feeling out. He is attack mode from the start and his striking is so unconventional there's no way to prepare for it. When he hits guys, they stay hurt.
Locking in some plays today. I have about 10 hours of driving today so not a lot of time for write-ups for Bellator tonight:
Freire over Straus -200 2 to win 1 Looking forward to a great fight here.
Alexander over Zwicker -120 1.2 to win 1 This is a rematch. In the first fight, Alexander was on his way to a 2 rounds to 1 decision by takedown and GnP until he decided to flagrantly head butt Zwicker in the 3rd, making the fight a draw. I'm hoping for a similar fight without the head butt.
Good luck - back later with WSOF plays for tomorrow.
Locking in some plays today. I have about 10 hours of driving today so not a lot of time for write-ups for Bellator tonight:
Freire over Straus -200 2 to win 1 Looking forward to a great fight here.
Alexander over Zwicker -120 1.2 to win 1 This is a rematch. In the first fight, Alexander was on his way to a 2 rounds to 1 decision by takedown and GnP until he decided to flagrantly head butt Zwicker in the 3rd, making the fight a draw. I'm hoping for a similar fight without the head butt.
Good luck - back later with WSOF plays for tomorrow.
Danny Davis Jr (-130) over Adam Cella 1.3 to win 1 Cella has a difficult time with superior athletes and Davis will be the superior athlete. He's also a pretty good striker and brown belt under Drysdale, which certainly aren't given out without merit.
Shields ITD (-110) over Brian Foster 1.7 to win 1.5 Jake has a bit of a chip on his shoulder, this will be one of his easier opponents in nearly 5 years, and Foster doesn't mind taking it to the mat, which will be a mistake here. Foster's also been subbed 5 of his 6 losses against inferior grapplers to Jake.
Good luck bros.
Just two tonight:
Danny Davis Jr (-130) over Adam Cella 1.3 to win 1 Cella has a difficult time with superior athletes and Davis will be the superior athlete. He's also a pretty good striker and brown belt under Drysdale, which certainly aren't given out without merit.
Shields ITD (-110) over Brian Foster 1.7 to win 1.5 Jake has a bit of a chip on his shoulder, this will be one of his easier opponents in nearly 5 years, and Foster doesn't mind taking it to the mat, which will be a mistake here. Foster's also been subbed 5 of his 6 losses against inferior grapplers to Jake.
Parke over Tibau +125 2 to win 2.5 Rosa over Soriano -135 2 to win 1.5 Spencer over Pendred -160 1.6 to win 1 Case over Perez -160 1.6 to win 1 Howell over Holohan +250 .6 to win 1.5
Good luck guys.
From my favorite to least....
Parke over Tibau +125 2 to win 2.5 Rosa over Soriano -135 2 to win 1.5 Spencer over Pendred -160 1.6 to win 1 Case over Perez -160 1.6 to win 1 Howell over Holohan +250 .6 to win 1.5
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