MPM's UFC 178

YTD 63-37 = Plus $2040

110/100- Eddie Alvarez- I'm so pumped for this fight. 2 of my favorite fighters of all time, is a coin toss fight but gotta go with the Philly guy to take the win. If he pushes the pace he can get Cowboy back pedaling & take dec win.

100/240- Dustin Poirier- Dustin needs to fight smart & not try to out strike McGregor or he will lose. If uses smart fight IQ he is good enough to get a win.

290/200- Yoel Romero- I absolutely love this fight!! Can't see Kennedy controlling him with wrestling & think Romero beats him up on the feet. Only concern is if Romero's cardio issue comes up again.

100/230- Amanda Nunes- Think Cat is the overall better fighter, but Nunes is strong as hell. Thinking the issues from out of the Octagon will be a factor as well.

50/175- Takeya Mizugaki- This is strictly a value play for me. No idea how Cruz will look for this fight. That long layoff & the injuries are reason enough to take a shot on the underdog.

50/150- Patrick Cote- Thomson is a great striker but does not impress me anywhere else at all. Line is way to big & if Cote can use takedowns like he did against Noke it should be his fight to lose.

That is it for me on this card. I love the value on this card & hope to at least split my underdog plays if not better. Good luck to everyone who plays & enjoy the card. Finally a UFC event that has me excited to watch for 5 plus hours. Let's get it.

.....I like most of ur picks.....and enjoy reading ur reasoning.....im not 100% sure about "value" but I also would be very surprised if lee loses to tuck.....having seen both guys lee is just much more skilled imo......enjoy the card!

Very interesting plays MPM!!! You see a few dawgs hitting, Hmmm.

I love the Mizugaki play. What was Cruz know for foot movement and take downs. If I'm Mizugaki I'm going after that knee all night!!!

Yeah. Going for a few under dogs on this card. Think Cruz is much better if healthy & fighting regularly, but is worth a play with those odds.

Its worth a shot, I like him plus 300.

Waiting for the public to bomb away at the Goat!!!

Vegas and you agree on Lee bighurt. He's minus 210.

Gonna look at that fight now big hurt. Am really excited for this card so def want to play as much as I can. Thanks for insight.

gl with it......looks like ur doing a good job on ur reads.....I was looking at eborsole as a value play maybe as well.....howard is just a grinder really imo.....ebersole is pretty savy.....by no means a lock but ebersole has a decent shot to me.......should be a fun night

My 2 cents MPM. Tuck stood and got out boxed against Parke, then was dominant his next fight. Lee last fight did good, kinda sluggish. Looked great in his loss to AL. Lee has more power, will be the bigger guy, Tuck has a good beard!!!

fair read.....I would like to add I think Lee has a large advantage in cardio......tucks last fight slowed way down after the 1st round

I like Alvarez..Cowboy is fun to watch,but I think his best fights are behind him.Lil surprised u went against Cruz,but it could be worth the risk.I'd like to take Dustin(I'm not betting against him)but just can't seem to do it.Conor needs to be humbled,but he is very talented.Like your card..Best of luck bro..I can't wait to see DC/ Bones...I'm loading up on DC.

In the Cruz/Mizugaki fight I actually bet the over 2½ rounds at -240 fairly big and also a smaller bet on Mizugaki by decision at +500. It's super unlikely in my opinion that either one of these guys finish the other, so I win money if Cruz wins a decision and win a lot of money if Mizugaki wins the decision.

Hey Jim better hope Cruz don't blow his leg out!!!

That's a risk,but on the balance I like my odds to win money no matter who looks better in this fight.

Jim I don't do any parlays or prop bets. Just pick a side & go with that. Good luck bro

Everyone has their own betting styles. I like to mix in some props with high + numbers in with my straight bets when I see value. Hopefully Mizugaki comes through for both of us! 

My book won't allow me to do the round robin and parlays anymore!!

I like the way you try to middle the lines!!! What I'd like from you Jim is a end of the night tally, wins losses bankroll, its hard to keep track!!!

With you LW with Hunt MPM but cannot say the same this week.

The Kennedy fight to me is a classic case of a guy with better overall skills with great exp. chin, heart and cardio for days vs simply a better athlete with lots of power. Kennedy will simply pressure and smother him with better clinch work, mma wrestling and jjs to an uneventfull UD. or a late sub vs his gassed opp.

The Cerrone fight if it goes the distance i think probably Alv. wins the dec. but i cannot think of a guy in the lower weight classes i would want in front of me, when i am on 3 sec. person street than Cowboy + Alv. almost always finds that street 1 or 2 times a fight esp. vs decent strikers. To his credit he survived a lot of those moments and recovered quickly, but not this time vs this smell blood in the water killer. Cerrone takes this between the 3 and 10 min. mark. 

GL on the rest M

Poirier if he does not get KOed may surprise if he gets it to the ground for any sig. time.

Nunes seems like good value but wmma.... good luck.

Cote does not have much of a chance IMO but the line is too steep for me.

 

Edit

but i cannot think of a guy in the lower weight classes i would want in front of me when i am on 3 sec. person street than Cowboy +

 ah i see the site will got allow me to say Queeee r as in grogy shaken up

I go through a local guy in Philly. No online stuff.

So can't do props & parlays...... Also Keven I agree, this card is gonna have allot of people on opposite sides. Hopefully we all can win.