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Dennis Siver +800

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Posted: #1
this fight has a very good chance of being rigged.  i'm going to keep checking the odds to make sure because i want all the evidence in the world that everyone is betting on mcgregor just minutes before the fight and i want to see big jumps.  

at any point between now and moments before the fight if i see siver odds just sitting there being the same too long or lowering even if it's only 5 cents, i am not going to do it.

according to bestfightodds.com the odds have been like this on siver:

+400 (opening odds) to +600 and now +900

a few days ago on 5dimes i saw +775 and now +800

i put a lot more stock if the line jumps just before the fight starts because that's when most people are betting.  

i would say the siver moneyline is going to be somewhere around +1000 if i am going to think about doing it.  i will put between $50-$100 on this bet for those wondering

watching the line for this fight will be a lot of fun as well as seeing dana white lose.  i would not be surprised if dennis siver gets busted for peds weeks after this fight but if he wins on sunday nothing is going to get cancelled out.  Can you say this might be the biggest upset in ufc history?


 
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Posted: #2
In no way would that be a bigger upset than serra over gsp
 
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Posted: #3
dillashaw over barao too
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

dillashaw over barao too

yeah exactly what i liked seeing back then.  Doesn't mean that siver is going to win but these are the type of spots that i like.  how many bullets can usually go in an old dirty revolver?  we're not talking a whole magazine here, we're talking about a single shot that you can get the most bang out of.  

Wonder what the odds will be on Siver by submission prop.  let me know if other sportsbooks out there show that people might be taking siver.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by TheCrow:

i would not be surprised if dennis siver gets busted for peds weeks after this fight but if he wins on sunday nothing is going to get cancelled out.  Can you say this might be the biggest upset in ufc history?

I could just imagine Siver winning, failing a test, and Dana/UFC giving Conor the Aldo fight anyone, because "the Siver fight doesn't count"
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by ELEV8:


I could just imagine Siver winning, failing a test, and Dana/UFC giving Conor the Aldo fight anyone, because "the Siver fight doesn't count"

I could just imagine Siver winning, failing a test, and Dana/UFC giving Conor the Aldo fight anyone, because "the Siver fight doesn't count"
 
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Posted: #7
damn i was hoping people would bash the living fukk out of me for thinking about doing dennis seaver and it's been 5 hours since i created the post.

front row brian seems to also be on #TeamSiver  more better that i am the only 1 thinking of betting money on him but we'll see about line movement after weigh ins or something.  

maybe dennis siver needs to miss weight to make everyone think he must be sick and can't win for line to get over +1000, who knows.
 
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Posted: #8
From my experience, people don't bash around here (I can't talk about the other covers forums - I haven't visited them). I don't think Siver wins this one, but I wish you luck, because I'm certainly not paying -1200 on anyone.
 
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Posted: #9

I like your ballz here....but McGregor is worth way too much money to the UFC.

Take a look at the odds on under 1.5 rounds.........Siver is going to serve up his chin to a future staple of the company.

This thing is locked and loaded....Dana and the UFC aim to fill Wembley with the Irishman's fans one day.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #10
Why would the hell would they rig this for for Siver?!?? Over a potential golden goose with an entire country behind him? What in the hell are you talking about? Is this the type of crap commentary Covers is devolving into ?
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:

Why would the hell would they rig this for for Siver?!?? Over a potential golden goose with an entire country behind him? What in the hell are you talking about? Is this the type of crap commentary Covers is devolving into ?

It could be anyone who pays a fighter to take a dive; doesn't have to be the organization itself.
 
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Posted: #12
OK CROW, i'll bite. I played McGregor(-1000) and Under 1.5(-170) both for a $100 to win. Besides the first Weidman/Silva fight, IT will be a easy pay day!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Hey BTW Crow this isn't Sherdog, this is a gambling website. So your bet is what you bet, much be stupid OR might be the smartest guy on the planet!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:

Why would the hell would they rig this for for Siver?!?? Over a potential golden goose with an entire country behind him? What in the hell are you talking about? Is this the type of crap commentary Covers is devolving into ?


When TheCrow posts, yes. He has no clue what he's talking about. Let him mumble, and lose his money over the long run chasing a dream.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:

Why would the hell would they rig this for for Siver?!?? Over a potential golden goose with an entire country behind him? What in the hell are you talking about? Is this the type of crap commentary Covers is devolving into ?

to me it's a lot of fun saying that something will be rigged BEFORE the match starts as opposed to during it or after it is finished.



 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

From my experience, people don't bash around here (I can't talk about the other covers forums - I haven't visited them). I don't think Siver wins this one, but I wish you luck, because I'm certainly not paying -1200 on anyone.



I hope it stays that way too......so many of the other forums are juvenile
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by TheCrow:

this fight has a very good chance of being rigged.  i'm going to keep checking the odds to make sure because i want all the evidence in the world that everyone is betting on mcgregor just minutes before the fight and i want to see big jumps.  

at any point between now and moments before the fight if i see siver odds just sitting there being the same too long or lowering even if it's only 5 cents, i am not going to do it.

according to bestfightodds.com the odds have been like this on siver:

+400 (opening odds) to +600 and now +900

a few days ago on 5dimes i saw +775 and now +800

i put a lot more stock if the line jumps just before the fight starts because that's when most people are betting.  

i would say the siver moneyline is going to be somewhere around +1000 if i am going to think about doing it.  i will put between $50-$100 on this bet for those wondering

watching the line for this fight will be a lot of fun as well as seeing dana white lose.  i would not be surprised if dennis siver gets busted for peds weeks after this fight but if he wins on sunday nothing is going to get cancelled out.  Can you say this might be the biggest upset in ufc history?



So you don't actually cap the fights but rather cap line movements. Then your reasoning to justify the play is because "fixed fight"
Gotcha! Brilliant capping strategy 



 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



When TheCrow posts, yes. He has no clue what he's talking about. Let him mumble, and lose his money over the long run chasing a dream.

Since your speaking of long run, have you ever got back those 10 units you dropped in 14 seconds on Magalhaes at some fkin retarded vig rate like 4 to 1? Guys like you are funny. You know a little bit about the sport, enjoy some success, things go bad, you Fall off the map, wait for people to forget. Come back, call a winner and you're right Back to ridiculing somebody about how terrible their suggestion is. Wash, rinse, repeat. Honestly I think siver has no shot but at least this guy has the nut to chase some value with a guy who has KO power. Hes not laying 10+ units to win 3........ mr sharpie

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by 2fade:

Since your speaking of long run, have you ever got back those 10 units you dropped in 14 seconds on Magalhaes at some fkin retarded vig rate like 4 to 1? Guys like you are funny. You know a little bit about the sport, enjoy some success, things go bad, you Fall off the map, wait for people to forget. Come back, call a winner and you're right Back to ridiculing somebody about how terrible their suggestion is. Wash, rinse, repeat. Honestly I think siver has no shot but at least this guy has the nut to chase some value with a guy who has KO power. Hes not laying 10+ units to win 3........ mr sharpie


i have no respect for anyone who would call a -1250 win on the moneyline as being 1-0.  it's not 1-0, it's more like 0.0008 of being a win.  Same with winning on a -200.  that's like a half a win.

There is another thread with a contest in it, so anyone who picks mcgregor goes 1-0?  what if someone picks siver and wins, is that 1-0?  no it's not.  if you picked dennis siver in that contest and he wins, you should be rewarded with an 8-0 record right off the bat or something for doing it.  

i think of betting mma with having a certain amount of bullets you can use after you pay all your bills.  so you wanna waste a bullet on a parlay of mcgregor -1250 with the under 1.5 rounds at -185 odds?  absolutely stupid bet that i would do 10 years ago but i've learned from those.  It's unfortuate that many many people aren't going to understand what i'm talking about but lets not forget what the demographic of mma fans consist of, what 18-34?  Not all but most are obviously immature.

Too many people on here try to get respect by posting their records, it's not about the record, in fact you can win 40% of your total bets and make a really good profit.

in otherwords if you keep doing the -1250 odds, -350 here, -780 there, -175 etc, you have to be absolutely PERFECT to have any impact.  i mean you know there's going to be the nutjobs that have large money, get drunk in las vegas like the irishmen that they are and bet $25000 just to win $2000 on conor mcgregor and it's not even worth it.  You keep doing these stupid bets another 10 times and all it takes is just 1 time out of those 10 to set you back a mile. 

All you need is the standard bet on here which is no more than $100.  if you really feel confident, ok $200 but as i stated $50-$100 if i do the dennis siver moneyline, what is wrong with that?  if i lose, then i lose, it's $100, you can get it back easily when the college basketball tournaments start next month.

hey at least i am letting everyone know that i am biased and will for sure put $50-$100 on the cat zingano moneyline.  as for the dennis siver moneyline it's still at +800 and -1250 mcgregor.  i don't think i'll be betting this fight unless there's some major line movement before the fight.  I'll consider doing $50 if it's +900 but the odds have been sitting at the same line for too long.
 
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Posted: #20
I think most of us Neanderthal knuckle-draggers down here understand the risk with betting a huge favorite. And if you look at people's picks, most don't pick these huge faves.

But I can promise you that blind betting the huge dogs isn't a profitable venture either, especially since the vig on them is much larger than a close fight. There's only been 6-8 dogs this large cash in the 20 year history of the ufc. Off the top of my head - Edgar over BJ 1, TJ over Renan, Serra over GSP, Eduardo over Wineland, Tito over Bader....you have any more? And I'd guess that only 1 or 2 of those are +800 or better.
 
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Posted: #21
you don't need huge +800 dogs to get it to be a profitable venture. i have found it to be very profitable in wmma for example +400 michelle waterson against jessica penne, rousey will not submit alexis davis +174, rousey wins first round +174 vs mcmann combining these over a period of time with odds as close to even as much that are intelligent:  jake shields chin vs hector lombard  lombard NOT by KO/TKO i forget the odds but that one was better than +100

for sure i would never ever EVER ever EVER EVER do -460 on anyone and then get knocked the fukk out in 14 seconds, nevermind conor mcgregor -1250

i'm already thinking about the chin of nick diaz for ufc 183 anderson silva for example.  everyone is going to think anderson probably gets the knockout but i'm hoping the odds will be as close to +100 as much as possible for anderson silva NOT by KO/TKO
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

I think most of us Neanderthal knuckle-draggers down here understand the risk with betting a huge favorite. And if you look at people's picks, most don't pick these huge faves.

But I can promise you that blind betting the huge dogs isn't a profitable venture either, especially since the vig on them is much larger than a close fight. There's only been 6-8 dogs this large cash in the 20 year history of the ufc. Off the top of my head - Edgar over BJ 1, TJ over Renan, Serra over GSP, Eduardo over Wineland, Tito over Bader....you have any more? And I'd guess that only 1 or 2 of those are +800 or better.


Granted you understand O the crow has never posted a MMA bet on here and said that Weidman would have trouble with Machida!!!!!!! I stand by my McGregor bet and by the under too, I have no respect with guys who never post any bets!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TheCrow:

you don't need huge +800 dogs to get it to be a profitable venture. i have found it to be very profitable in wmma for example +400 michelle waterson against jessica penne, rousey will not submit alexis davis +174, rousey wins first round +174 vs mcmann combining these over a period of time with odds as close to even as much that are


So...it's kinda like you're saying - "if I mix in a few hours grinding poker with a few scratch tickets, I can still be profitable?" Gotcha.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

I like your ballz here....but McGregor is worth way too much money to the UFC.
Take a look at the odds on under 1.5 rounds.........Siver is going to serve up his chin to a future staple of the company.
This thing is locked and loaded....Dana and the UFC aim to fill Wembley with the Irishman's fans one day.


This, McGregor will win easily tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:



So...it's kinda like you're saying - "if I mix in a few hours grinding poker with a few scratch tickets, I can still be profitable?" Gotcha.

i believe that anyone who bets mma on here can provide in-depth analysis as to why they are doing what and to come across as respectable as opposed to posting picks just because someone is offering a free contest with a prize.  

It doesn't mean you have to agree with analysis or bet the same things that i am doing but at least it gives the people on the other side something to think about before they place the opposite of what i'm doing or better yet maybe end up not playing it at all.  
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