Posted:
#1
Since some of us are on a break, others aren't I'd like to get that water cooler going. I love Mendes in this fight. Haven't seen a line yet but the shorter the plus money, the more I it!!!
Aldo vs Mendes
Posted:
#3
I liked Mendes at lot more at the +325 peak on 5Dimes than I do where he is at now at +240. I mean, he has a chance, but I still think Also is going to win this re-match if not by stoppage then at least by decision. So I haven't made any bet yet for UFC 179.
I'm really concentrating more on this this weekend's Bellator and WSOF and RFA fights for now. Bellator lines are out already. I bet Bubba McDaniel over a debuting in Bellator Argentinian straight up at -165; Page/Burell under 1½ at -135 expecting another Venon first round knockout; and Joe Warren at +400 in the bantamweight title unification fight since that line was so tempting.
I'm really concentrating more on this this weekend's Bellator and WSOF and RFA fights for now. Bellator lines are out already. I bet Bubba McDaniel over a debuting in Bellator Argentinian straight up at -165; Page/Burell under 1½ at -135 expecting another Venon first round knockout; and Joe Warren at +400 in the bantamweight title unification fight since that line was so tempting.
Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by JimGunn:
Ricardo Lamas won round 5 against a tired Aldo in his title fight not too long ago, but it didn't do him any good because he still lost a UD. It's not going to do any good for Chad either unless he hurts Aldo badly early on like TJ did to Barao or actually stops him late.
Ricardo Lamas won round 5 against a tired Aldo in his title fight not too long ago, but it didn't do him any good because he still lost a UD. It's not going to do any good for Chad either unless he hurts Aldo badly early on like TJ did to Barao or actually stops him late.
Heck that Canadian kid almost finished Aldo in the 5th. I'm not a Alpha male lover, but Ludwig has made a big difference with Mendes and TJ. Mendes has to win a early round that's for sure. I like the wrestler vs. BJJ guy and I like the revenge factor!!!
Posted:
#8
Quote Originally Posted by JimGunn:
I liked Mendes at lot more at the +325 peak on 5Dimes than I do where he is at now at +240. I mean, he has a chance, but I still think Also is going to win this re-match if not by stoppage then at least by decision. So I haven't made any bet yet for UFC 179.I'm really concentrating more on this this weekend's Bellator and WSOF and RFA fights for now. Bellator lines are out already. I bet Bubba McDaniel over a debuting in Bellator Argentinian straight up at -165; Page/Burell under 1½ at -135 expecting another Venon first round knockout; and Joe Warren at +400 in the bantamweight title unification fight since that line was so tempting.
I liked Mendes at lot more at the +325 peak on 5Dimes than I do where he is at now at +240. I mean, he has a chance, but I still think Also is going to win this re-match if not by stoppage then at least by decision. So I haven't made any bet yet for UFC 179.I'm really concentrating more on this this weekend's Bellator and WSOF and RFA fights for now. Bellator lines are out already. I bet Bubba McDaniel over a debuting in Bellator Argentinian straight up at -165; Page/Burell under 1½ at -135 expecting another Venon first round knockout; and Joe Warren at +400 in the bantamweight title unification fight since that line was so tempting.
I see you working the Bellator and the WSOF this weekend Jim. Hardcore!!!!!
Posted:
#11
It's clear Aldo has taken R5s off before and coasts to victory once he already has 4 rounds in the bag. These idiots ride out top position against a guy whom they have no chance of stopping from his full guard, and Aldo is more than willing to oblige. That said, yes, he does slow down, but it doesn't matter. Aldo -210 is a gift.
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:
It's clear Aldo has taken R5s off before and coasts to victory once he already has 4 rounds in the bag. These idiots ride out top position against a guy whom they have no chance of stopping from his full guard, and Aldo is more than willing to oblige. That said, yes, he does slow down, but it doesn't matter. Aldo -210 is a gift.
It's clear Aldo has taken R5s off before and coasts to victory once he already has 4 rounds in the bag. These idiots ride out top position against a guy whom they have no chance of stopping from his full guard, and Aldo is more than willing to oblige. That said, yes, he does slow down, but it doesn't matter. Aldo -210 is a gift.
The line and the fight remind me of Silva/Weidman part 1.
Posted:
#15
In the Ist fight Chad was outstriking Jose 13-8 before the Chad i bendover and Jose ill knee you in the face at the same time...fortunate sequance...after the blatant fence grab seconds earlier that allowed all that to happen.
The 1 thing i have never read or hear anyone say about Chad is his Defensive Stand up. He never gets tagged standing...ya some shots land but nothing heavy...he very much reminds me of Chris Weidman...super Def. standup...not a great volume of strikes but big power in those he throws and he is only getting better with this fairly new found toy Bang Ludwig has helped plug into this natural dominate athelete.
Aldo has great standup, but Chad will not look out of place standing across from him mainly because of his DEF.
I think if Jose wins this fight he chopped Chad down with those killer leg kicks over and over again, but Chad has said on many interviews he will be looking for those and has trained exstensively for that and to counter with TDs, easier said than done vs Jose though, but with your opp. going for TDs off your leg kicks vs anyone, makes the kicker a little or a lot more reluctant to keep that up.
Tough fight to call cause Jose is bomb ready to go of at anytime, but i see the more measured and highly underated Def. that Chad brings will counteract that bomb enough along with his counterpunching, accuracy and power to do enough to somewhat offset Aldo standup advantage and mix in a few TDs (maybe 25-33% of the time success rate but he will get them esp. considering Chads standup prowess as a threat) to take it into the 4th or 5th round to possibly KO Jose late or most likely win a 48-47 across the board UN. decision because of Jose fading and Chad pushing te pace late and grinding Jose earlier from some TDs to take those last 2 rounds.
Gl Iron
Posted:
#18
Aldo-Mendes
I like the over 4.5 RDS +100 here. Both guys styles lend themselves to a lot of decisions against the highest levels of competition. I see this as a title fight similar to Hendricks-GSP, Jones-Gus, Aldo-Edgar. There will be a slight edge with the victor winning 1-2 rounds clearly, the opponent winning 1, and the other 2-3 being up in the air. I hate being on either side of a controversial decision, so I'll root for a great 25 minute affair.
Some others I like:
Wilson Reis over Jorgensen -160
Man, I hate to bet against a guy like Scotty. I loved the WEC on Versus and he's put on some great fights in his career. But, he just looks flat lately. I don't know if he's tired of the grind, maybe has a 20-something sucking the ambition out of him - I don't know. He wins by winning the grappling battle typically, and I just don't see it here against the decorated Jiu jitsu ace in Wilson.
Lucas Martins +155 over Elkins
This is one of those fights where one guy will have a clear stand-up and Jiu jitsu advantage (Martins) against a guy with a clear wrestling advantage (Elkins). 2 things: 1. The great thing about this for Martins is if he can frustrate Elkins with a few failed takedowns early (which is undoubtedly all Martins is training), he can pick Elkins apart, and 2. The fight is in Brazil. If Elkins does get a few takedowns but is active off his back and clearly winning the stand-up, judges have been kind to Brazillian fighters in Brazil before (shocking).
Hans Stringer over Maldonado +105
This line has been dropping, dropping, dropping - I think it started at somewhere around +160. I can't imagine that there is tons of money flowing in on Stringer - Maldonado is much more known, loved and fighting on home soil. What's going on here? A bruising, nasty brawler-boxer like Fabio is best beaten by what style? A fluid, quick in-and-out, maybe Dutch kickboxer who works best in distance and mixes all 8 limbs to defeat your 2. That's Hans.
This is my first post, so bring on the shit talking! Seriously though, I welcome all feedback/discussion.
I like the over 4.5 RDS +100 here. Both guys styles lend themselves to a lot of decisions against the highest levels of competition. I see this as a title fight similar to Hendricks-GSP, Jones-Gus, Aldo-Edgar. There will be a slight edge with the victor winning 1-2 rounds clearly, the opponent winning 1, and the other 2-3 being up in the air. I hate being on either side of a controversial decision, so I'll root for a great 25 minute affair.
Some others I like:
Wilson Reis over Jorgensen -160
Man, I hate to bet against a guy like Scotty. I loved the WEC on Versus and he's put on some great fights in his career. But, he just looks flat lately. I don't know if he's tired of the grind, maybe has a 20-something sucking the ambition out of him - I don't know. He wins by winning the grappling battle typically, and I just don't see it here against the decorated Jiu jitsu ace in Wilson.
Lucas Martins +155 over Elkins
This is one of those fights where one guy will have a clear stand-up and Jiu jitsu advantage (Martins) against a guy with a clear wrestling advantage (Elkins). 2 things: 1. The great thing about this for Martins is if he can frustrate Elkins with a few failed takedowns early (which is undoubtedly all Martins is training), he can pick Elkins apart, and 2. The fight is in Brazil. If Elkins does get a few takedowns but is active off his back and clearly winning the stand-up, judges have been kind to Brazillian fighters in Brazil before (shocking).
Hans Stringer over Maldonado +105
This line has been dropping, dropping, dropping - I think it started at somewhere around +160. I can't imagine that there is tons of money flowing in on Stringer - Maldonado is much more known, loved and fighting on home soil. What's going on here? A bruising, nasty brawler-boxer like Fabio is best beaten by what style? A fluid, quick in-and-out, maybe Dutch kickboxer who works best in distance and mixes all 8 limbs to defeat your 2. That's Hans.
This is my first post, so bring on the shit talking! Seriously though, I welcome all feedback/discussion.
Posted:
#19
Uno mas and it's a prop:
Gilbert Burns inside distance over Giagos +125
Burns is 8-0 as a pro with 7 stoppages. His only ufc fight was the only decision win against another previously undefeated fighter. But that fight was at welterweight (170). This fight is at Burns's natural weight, 155, and against a debut fighter in Giagos. Burns is a BJJ world champ, a buddy of Vitor, and a monster at 155. I think he drags this down to a GNP or sub finish pretty easily.
Gilbert Burns inside distance over Giagos +125
Burns is 8-0 as a pro with 7 stoppages. His only ufc fight was the only decision win against another previously undefeated fighter. But that fight was at welterweight (170). This fight is at Burns's natural weight, 155, and against a debut fighter in Giagos. Burns is a BJJ world champ, a buddy of Vitor, and a monster at 155. I think he drags this down to a GNP or sub finish pretty easily.
Posted:
#20
Welcome aboard O. Good post but i kinda like Jorgensen in this fight, waiting for the line to move my way. I think Scotty has some fight left, has fought better guys at bigger weight and is very good in the scrambles. But for him to win in Brazil he has to be clearly taking it to Reis. All the other fights besides Mendes look spot on. Sit back and relax business will pick up around Friday and Saturday!!!!!!!!!!
Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by keven vanlith:
In the Ist fight Chad was outstriking Jose 13-8 before the Chad i bendover and Jose ill knee you in the face at the same time...fortunate sequance...after the blatant fence grab seconds earlier that allowed all that to happen.
The 1 thing i have never read or hear anyone say about Chad is his Defensive Stand up. He never gets tagged standing...ya some shots land but nothing heavy...he very much reminds me of Chris Weidman...super Def. standup...not a great volume of strikes but big power in those he throws and he is only getting better with this fairly new found toy Bang Ludwig has helped plug into this natural dominate athelete.
Aldo has great standup, but Chad will not look out of place standing across from him mainly because of his DEF.
I think if Jose wins this fight he chopped Chad down with those killer leg kicks over and over again, but Chad has said on many interviews he will be looking for those and has trained exstensively for that and to counter with TDs, easier said than done vs Jose though, but with your opp. going for TDs off your leg kicks vs anyone, makes the kicker a little or a lot more reluctant to keep that up.
Tough fight to call cause Jose is bomb ready to go of at anytime, but i see the more measured and highly underated Def. that Chad brings will counteract that bomb enough along with his counterpunching, accuracy and power to do enough to somewhat offset Aldo standup advantage and mix in a few TDs (maybe 25-33% of the time success rate but he will get them esp. considering Chads standup prowess as a threat) to take it into the 4th or 5th round to possibly KO Jose late or most likely win a 48-47 across the board UN. decision because of Jose fading and Chad pushing te pace late and grinding Jose earlier from some TDs to take those last 2 rounds.
Gl Iron
Great write up Keven!!!!!!!!
Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:
Welcome aboard O. Good post but i kinda like Jorgensen in this fight, waiting for the line to move my way. I think Scotty has some fight left, has fought better guys at bigger weight and is very good in the scrambles. But for him to win in Brazil he has to be clearly taking it to Reis. All the other fights besides Mendes look spot on. Sit back and relax business will pick up around Friday and Saturday!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome aboard O. Good post but i kinda like Jorgensen in this fight, waiting for the line to move my way. I think Scotty has some fight left, has fought better guys at bigger weight and is very good in the scrambles. But for him to win in Brazil he has to be clearly taking it to Reis. All the other fights besides Mendes look spot on. Sit back and relax business will pick up around Friday and Saturday!!!!!!!!!!
How do you think Jorg wins it? Just superior striking and no ground work?
Posted:
#24
I like Chad over
Aldo...he will get Aldo down this fight.Its not a fight I will play a lot on ,but it's worth it.I too am not really a Team Alpha fan.Maybe its just because I don't care for Faber.Gets on my nerves.Looks like a 10yr old boy in a man's body.T.J. has injected confidence in these guys.How
do u guys think Connor matches up against Aldo or Chad?
Aldo...he will get Aldo down this fight.Its not a fight I will play a lot on ,but it's worth it.I too am not really a Team Alpha fan.Maybe its just because I don't care for Faber.Gets on my nerves.Looks like a 10yr old boy in a man's body.T.J. has injected confidence in these guys.How do u guys think Connor matches up against Aldo or Chad?
Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:
I like Chad over Aldo..he will get Aldo down this fight.Its not a fight I will play a lot on ,but it's worth it.I too am not really a Team Alpha fan.Maybe its just because I don't care for Faber.Gets on my nerves.Looks like a 10yr old boy in a man's body.T.J. has injected confidence in these guys.How do u guys think Connor matches up against Aldo or Chad?
I like Chad over Aldo..he will get Aldo down this fight.Its not a fight I will play a lot on ,but it's worth it.I too am not really a Team Alpha fan.Maybe its just because I don't care for Faber.Gets on my nerves.Looks like a 10yr old boy in a man's body.T.J. has injected confidence in these guys.How do u guys think Connor matches up against Aldo or Chad?
Better against Jose than Chad, IMO, but I think Conor loses to both of them right now. I'm not the first to suggest this, but I want to see him fight a wrestler with a good chin - Lentz, Bermudez, Elkins, Guida or even Frankie.
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