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Where Nasdaq Is Going From Here...Weigh In..

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Posted: #1
I see more bad news coming this week. Earnings, Weak Dollar,
Ambivalent Fed Message, Financial Center Weakening, Sub Prime,. I personally think
stocks like Google, Bidu, Rimm, and Apple have more downside room. I can see GoogIe going under $600/share. I believe I may be TOO EXTREME IN MY VIEWS but I see somewhat of a collapse in tech in next week or two? I may very well be wrong though. Things cannot go straight down however. Beartraps will be present. Many big houses and institutions looking at fundamentals
and technicals and will use any decent excuse to dump and dump hard. Heard much talk about lowest levels since 2002 and more correction ahead. Subprime going into technology really hurts things initially with CSCO and I do not see it over here. Depressing for long traders and I have a position to cover up myself if I can't dump it into a beartrap for a slight gain to breakeven (on my AMGN).
Anyway, the weird thing in this market is expect the unexpected?
Headed for a move up? Maybe? I do not think so though.
WHAT DO YOU THINK??
 
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Posted: #2
Just looked, I didn't realize that NAS took almost a 7% haircut in the last 3 trading sessions.  Yikes.  Rather quick correction.  There should be a bounce sometime either Monday or Tuesday next week, but can it really hold?  I wouldn't want to be heavy on the ultra-expensive tech stock group.

The thing is business is pretty split sector-wise.  Some terrible, some still really good and others uneasy.  So far the consumer has held up.  Holiday shopping is going to be a test for the consumer the next few months.  I think it'll be a little soft, but nothing dramatic.
 
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Posted: #3
Yeah, depeche....well done.  More than 50% of the Nas names may go lower over the next 13 months or so, but the index heavyweights may keep the numbers from tanking too much.
 
As a long haul holding, you ain't going to go wrong over the next 13 months with MSFT.  Trading MSFT.....I can't help you.  But buying and holding it for the long haul at this level-----I think you see 40ish by end of 2008.  A little more than 15% return-----not bad when you look at the dismal economic prospects throughout most of 2008-----and you won't lose a bunch of sleep riding a name like MSFT.
 
Get on AAPL, RIMM, or GOOG.........and you could have a heart attack soon and fast.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #4
MSFT is good and was overdue, but I think you'll be able to get it lower at $31-32.
 
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Posted: #5
Yeah, could be some more selling early next week.  32.5 was what I wanted, but bit at yesterday's close at 33.73.
 
I believe I am too early to the party, but 33.73 is much better than the 37 where it was a few days ago.
 
Nonetheless, this has legs, I believe, to 40ish by end of 2008.  In the coming economic horrors of the next 13 months, 15% is damn good.
 
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Posted: #6
Microsoft Interesting but too high right now. 20 day Moving Avg
at 33.5 (stock closed at 33.73). Should plummet through 20 day MA very soon. After that we are looking for support at the 50 day moving avg right at 31. You want to see if it bounces off the
50 day MA or not. If it plummets through 50 day MA then look for support at 29.75 which is 200 day MA.
Bottom Line: I would see how it reacts to 50 day MA and if it bounces and gains support with volume look to get MSFT right around 31. It will be there soon in my opinion.
Keep in mind though I believe a recession is coming in mid 2008 so i have a moderately bearish outlook here.
 
 
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Posted: #7
clay:
 
Agree with you on tech high flyers. Especially google.
Google went up too high too fast. It is an amazing company
making mad profits with lack of direct competition.
Thing is in this market place with all bad news, events, etc, etc. 
very difficult to sustain a rather new $700 /share company.
Add to this the naturally schitzo nature of many instituitons
and I do not see the sustainibilty. May be wrong though, who really knows. My 2 cents .
 
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Posted: #8
Hey, man, who in the hell is that in your avatar????
 
And yeah, I'd say a recession in 2008 is pretty much a 100% lock slam dunk.
 
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Posted: #9
Take away all the short interest in GOOG, and it falls in to the toilet.
 
It is the short interest that keeps these fliers afloat.
 
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Posted: #10

This reflects my views as well...I think Christmas is going to be proof positive, however, that we are in a real recession.. I throw in the traditional Dow Theory (I think) indicator of such with the transports numbers.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average started another secondary correction, after breaking 13500, and is headed for a test of primary support at 12800. The double top has no great significance unless primary support is penetrated, which would then signal reversal of the primary trend.

Twiggs Money Flow shows a long-term bearish divergence (red), but medium-term accumulation (green trendline) suggests that primary support may hold.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average reverted to a primary down-trend after breaking support at 4700. Fedex, already in a primary down-trend, is now testing the base ($100/$98) of the 2006/2007 ranging market. UPS is also headed for a test of primary support; the declining transport indicators warning of an expected slow-down in the broader economy.

The Nasdaq Composite also started a secondary correction after breaking 2700 and is now headed for a test of primary support at 2450.
 
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Posted: #11
ps am with CC:what the heck is that avatar LOL
 
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Posted: #12
Forgot to add this excerpt about the Dow in general...

Short Term: Thursday's long tail and large volume indicate strong buying support. Bargain hunters were overwhelmed on Friday, but may reappear between 13000 and 12800.
 
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Posted: #13
I read somewhere that the dow drops on average 22% from its high during a recession. That would mean that  the dow would bottom out at 11000. Does anyone think it goes this low?
 
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Posted: #14
The Dow doesn't accurately represent the entire stock market.
 
I'd look more at the SP 500 (broad market) just for the best index for comparison purposes.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
if you run SPY vs QQQQ chart on BigCharts.com, you will see the Nasdaq is WAY over the S&P right now. even IF the S&P ws to just drift, I think the high betas like RIMM, BIDU, GOOG. ect are going a LOT lower. QQQQ got went WAY overpriced just since the August correction.
 
look what happened on the 10 year chart from spring of 2000 to the fall of 2002 SPY vs QQQQ  YIKES!!!
 
IF you think it can happen AGAIN, the QID's are the play.
 
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Posted: #16
QIDs may well make you good money over the next year, but the likelihood of the Nas tanking again like it did then (spring 2000-fall 2002) is very unlikely.
 
Although there is once again a "tech bubble" thanks to ridiculous valuations and lies about "new paradigms," it doesn't hold a candle to the dotcom crappola before the Nas tanked in Mar '00.
 
The next 13 months will be horrible......no question about it.
 
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Posted: #17
you are probably correct, Clay, BUT I could still see the QQQQ come back to the SPY and go below it. THAT would be a megawin for the QID's
 
 
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Posted: #18
Clay:
 
That is a REAL guardian angel dressed up for some promo event. NO JOKE!
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