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Posts: 46

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Jan. 17, 2010 - 8:21 AM ET #1

If it's not it will be shortly. To many negative divergencies on the charts. I will be begin to enter positions on the short side. Closed all my long in December. Left a little money on the table these past four weeks.

PALLADIUM

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 952

Posted: Jan. 17, 2010 - 12:49 PM ET #2

Good luck buddy you will need it.

PALLADIUM

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 952

Posted: Jan. 21, 2010 - 5:33 PM ET #3

Looks like I was wrong good call

Are you buying any Ultra Short funds?

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Jan. 21, 2010 - 5:36 PM ET #4

Today was the first day in months that I saw some honest selling..

Not that dip on the open and rescue them sort of crap, but some selling, a rescue attempt and then more selling.

I think this is a crucial level technically speaking on the fib retrace..a close tomorrow under 1126 or so was supposed to be a 50% retrace and a bearish indicator.

GOOG down after hours, maybe we get more selling tomorrow..

gamble04

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2001

Posts: 4877

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 3:01 AM ET #5

Market seems to be heading lower on huge volume. Only question is how low are we going to fall within the next 3 months.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 3:48 PM ET #6

Selling wheels are spinning like I havent seen in months..

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 4:57 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

If it's not it will be shortly. To many negative divergencies on the charts. I will be begin to enter positions on the short side. Closed all my long in December. Left a little money on the table these past four weeks.

BINGO... I'll keep this short but will add later. I've been adding positions in FAZ, SRS, TZA, DXD. Also added shorts in GOOG and F. These positions have been added since the first of the year. I made a mistake in my previous post saying I closed all my longs. I still have 20% of my porfolio in DGP and GDX.

I trade from a 80% technical view point and 20 % fundamental. A lot of technical damage was done today and the market is ST over sold, so wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce Monday. 18 out of the last 20 Mondays (if Monday was a holliday Tuesday would then be considered) have been positive. Why I am bearish. Higher taxes, inflation, interest rates and underemployment rate. The dollar is toast and bonds are going to get crushed. All opinions welcome.

depeche2

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2002

Posts: 67006

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 9:26 PM ET #8

I think the downside will be limited to about 6-8% from here and markets will end the year up 8-12%. I would be a buyer around Dow Dow 9600 and S&P 1010.

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 9:39 PM ET #9

For what it is worth, a month ago a hedgie I know opined that the market was "wildly overvalued", that earnings would disappoint across the board, and are top line anyway. He also thinks unemployment is understated to the tune of another 8%...and he also thinks if you believe Chinese economic stats, you believe in the Easter Bunny as well.

Of course, he also thinks the US win gin up a war against Iran to distract everyone from the realities of Joe Sixpack getting screwed...

Gotta admit, he was not exactly in the best of moods, however, so take it with a large grain of salt

PS If anyone has a favorite site/organization/or a simple a human being for that matter whose stats you rely upon, I would like to know of it

Frankly, at the risk of sounding like the ultimate cynic, but maintaining it is simply skepticism, I trust nothing coming from corporate America, and even less coming form the U.S. government....

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Jan. 22, 2010 - 9:54 PM ET #10

make that "will gin up" a war

and "from the US government"

sasquatches1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 279

Posted: Jan. 24, 2010 - 9:39 AM ET #11

tigers56, sounds like we have a similar portfolio (minus the FAZ for me)...in SKF.

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Jan. 31, 2010 - 10:12 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by sasquatches1:

tigers56, sounds like we have a similar portfolio (minus the FAZ for me)...in SKF.

sasquatches1, good to see you are on the right side of the trade. Good money made this week. Alot of distribution. I thought we might bounce a little last week but didn't happen. We are ST oversold so wouldn't be surprised to see some upside retacement. $INDU is setting on support. Gap at 1069 on the S&P could get closed Monday A.M. before we go higher. I'm looking for the S&P to possibly retrace to 1110-1120 area before the selling continues. May add some additional shorts if that area is hit.

sasquatches1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 279

Posted: Feb. 4, 2010 - 8:51 PM ET #13

S&P 1040 should provide support...200 day MA.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Feb. 6, 2010 - 8:14 PM ET #14

Dow 4800 by EOY '10.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Feb. 6, 2010 - 9:11 PM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Dow 4800 by EOY '10.

Come on CC that is just craziness..

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 9:04 AM ET #16

Oh, we will see Wall...not that I hope for this, but let's just contemplate three events in close succession: California belly up, Spanish default, and an Israeli strike against Iran...nothing's impossible...just sk anyone in NYC on 9/11.

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 9:10 AM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by sasquatches1:

S&P 1040 should provide support...200 day MA.

Good call sas. Got down to 1044.50 to be exact before it bounced. Big money made Thursday. To bad it was at the cost of our economy and country.

I would not be at all surprised if this thing continues to tank (which I expect it too) that they limit or not allow short selling, like they did last year.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 9:36 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

Oh, we will see Wall...not that I hope for this, but let's just contemplate three events in close succession: California belly up, Spanish default, and an Israeli strike against Iran...nothing's impossible...just sk anyone in NYC on 9/11.

For Calif to go belly up there would need to be a large event or a freezing of credit markets..which the opposite seems to be happening (credit markets are better than they were last year). I would be shocked if Israel took any action this year and I think the Euro group will do everything possible to stop the dominoes from falling..much like we did last year.

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 9:55 AM ET #19

Things happen all the time that are shocking...in fact, I would place Israel finally having enough of a country which keeps claiming it wants to "wipe it off the map" as a lot less shocking than 9/11....much, much more probable

Credit markets can (as we just experienced) freeze up in seconds...

Look, just noting the possibles are plentiful for a very fragile and overpriced market to implode, and the disaster can come from any number of sources...exogenous or not.

And frankly that Turbo Timmy just said the US "would never" lose its Aaa rating makes me want to bet that we will

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 10:03 AM ET #20

I get a laugh at where these guys have to meet nowadays to avoid scrutiny...have fun Timmy!!! He should have chosen to go to Australia with the cerntral bankers, but they are getting more notice there

Geithner taped the interview before heading to Iqaluit, in Canada’s northern territory of Nunavut, for a meeting with finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial nations.

Rush51

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 8856

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 2:05 PM ET #21

The Fed will not allow California to go belly-up, first of all..

Spanish default ? It's funny how we pay attention to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) in a down market, and what the repercussions might be.    Each has been discussed recently about their potential for default..   Somehow, the "bigger brothers" in the European region will have to step up. .. Germany, England, etc.

An Israeli attack against Iran is almost imminent.   When it does occur, it will easily take stock markets down a significant amount (10-15%) quickly, with much worse repercussion in the oil market.

Dow 4800 is an insane number... let alone Dow 6600 (near market lows last March).
To reach these levels again, we have to remember what put us there to begin with.   Fear & Panic.     There was a real fear & panic the Fed was going to completely overtake the Financial System of this country.   Some might argue they are doing that now, but can you imagine if every share of these big Financial Firms had been wiped out... and Fed appointed CEOs (i.e. GM anyone) ?

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 3:53 PM ET #22

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

The Fed will not allow California to go belly-up, first of all..

Spanish default ? It's funny how we pay attention to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) in a down market, and what the repercussions might be.    Each has been discussed recently about their potential for default..   Somehow, the "bigger brothers" in the European region will have to step up. .. Germany, England, etc.

An Israeli attack against Iran is almost imminent.   When it does occur, it will easily take stock markets down a significant amount (10-15%) quickly, with much worse repercussion in the oil market.

Dow 4800 is an insane number... let alone Dow 6600 (near market lows last March).
To reach these levels again, we have to remember what put us there to begin with.   Fear & Panic.     There was a real fear & panic the Fed was going to completely overtake the Financial System of this country.   Some might argue they are doing that now, but can you imagine if every share of these big Financial Firms had been wiped out... and Fed appointed CEOs (i.e. GM anyone) ?

Rush, you must not be familiar with Elliot Wave if you think those numbers are not possible.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 4:26 PM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by tigers56:

Rush, you must not be familiar with Elliot Wave if you think those numbers are not possible.

Tell me how often EW counts actually occur?

You can make an up and down wave for every stock, index, currency..whatever..that does not mean it happens.

There are 10 excuses for every time an EW count fails, thats largely why I refuse to use it.

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 5:28 PM ET #24

One does not have to buy into EW to contemplate those figures..if anyone here at 14,093 handle had called 6626, they would have been laughed at as well...or if one had predicted the simple events of 9/11...

Point is, looking beyond the domestic deficits, unemployment, and our (not counted) sewer pit of Freddie and Fannie etc..there are many many possibilities that would make that credit crisis fear and panic look mild.And that credit crisis is by no means solved, any more than the three wars we are are fighting are won either..

An assassination, a successful large scale terrorist attack that actually approximates al qaeda's stated aims of killing 2-4 million Americans , or of simply bankrupting the country as bin Laden explained as long ago as 2004....if we witness in 2010 an Israeli airstike on Iranian nuclear positions, and say, the fall of Pakistan (frankly, those people are sick of the US fighting a war in their country)...well draw your own conclusions where the market could end up if those events transpire, let alone an ongoing contagion of the credit markets

tigers56

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 37

Posted: Feb. 18, 2010 - 5:50 PM ET #25

Today went all in with remaining dry powder..... SRS, FAZ, TZA and DXD. Gut wrenching these last five days. Good luck to all.

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