The new bull market is here

ytd dow

 end of quarter going to make a new high for the year?

the new bull... irrespective of the global economy

i'm not a believer, but i'm wrong a lot  

by the time every last fool was on the prices of everything only go up train last go round, the bottom fell out.  Well i'm of the opinion that the gubbmint directives have 'worked', meaning that they've served their purpose.  It's nearly impossible for most to figure out the 'value of a dollar' these days, our currency is simply backed by 'the full faith and credit of the USGOV'.  Everyone everywhere (that i hear) say that prices are going up.  They believe that things will cost more tomm. That was the goal, to ward off deflation, so that people wouldn't get the silly idea in their heads that they should put off purchasing (anything) with hopes that it would be cheaper tomm.  Mission accomplished, now everyone believes in perpetual inflation again. At the same time, everyone feels that the market is overvalued and that we are 'due' to crash again.  Where the fuck were all these people as they rode the tide to DOW 14k+??  Same people, slightly different mindsets.

The fundamentals and all the economically strenuous headwinds are still all there. Aging demographics (which one would think would lead to net outflows of capital from everything), Peak Oil (no longer a theory, we are living thru it, as production declines and consumption rises, will be harder and more expensive to meet future demands as time passes), and most importantly, our currency has capitulated into diminishing returns (click i tried twice to initiate discussion on this, but you know what happens here).  All the while the rest of the world is tired of America having an inflated standard of living on the backs of their national resources, while the rest of the world fights to survive.  "A rising tide might lift all ships", but what does it do to the ship that was floating high in the air above the rest?  Water always finds it's settling point, as will our economy, as bad as things may seem at times, the dollar is driving down a one way street, so things for Joe Consumer may continue to get worse, as his incomes continue to stagnate and deflate, while prices of necessities rise, but when the government took a stand to put a floor under housing/land prices, this was the inevitable result.  You can control the price, you can control the supply, but you cannot control both forever. The government controls (or at least attempts to), both supply and price of land, and we are penning fresh ink to the history books of how a hyperinflationary Great Depression looks in comparison to a deflationary GD

either way, metals will continue to outpace stocks, and while the physical trade has some downsides, it is a tax free trade.  and i still think the DOW makes a new high prior to the next presidential election.  <10% of the population controls > 90% of the "wealth" so at the end of the day, it doesn't matter much what Joe Consumer does, it's of little to no effect on prices

Got some questions BE if you got a sec....

Whats the roof on silver? Sitting at 37ish right now.....Gold expected to keep rising and it only makes sense that a lot of people, both who got in on gold early and those that missed the boat, will look to something much cheaper with the hopes it will rise substantially (it has already, but is still affordable by comparison)...

Are there any other metals under the radar?

Are there any "green" companies you are looking into?

Whats the near future of the housing market look like?

 

 

BE, real good post and  I agree with a lot you have to say.

Personally, I find myself investing in commodity stocks as well.  Not necessarily precious metals, but Oil, Nat. Gas, and Mining Cos.   I am still skeptical of a U.S. economy that relies nearly 70% of its GDP on  the American Consumer.    Crazy me , but I thought the American Consumer was in debt up to their eyeballs. 

The best growth opportunities are still found overseas  IMO, so I my expectation is for the Chinese (in particular)  to still have high demand for Oil and the Miners.  Also, Japan makes sense for a Mining play since they will need a steady supply of iron ore (steel) and  copper  to rebuild their infrastructure..

Buy Lithium

DOW over the last 24 months up 50%
over the past 12 months up 30%
in the six months since this post up a little less then 10%