SES AI (stock symbol)

https://www.tipranks.com/news/upside-bias-says-ubs-on-nvidia-stock-nvda-ahead-of-gtc

https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/new-buy-rating-for-nvidia-nvda-the-technology-giant-blurbs-news-3

Oh well. The table did not come through.  Only two of the links appear to be free.

Arcuri from UBS has a target of 245

Rakers from Wells Fargo has a target of 265

Shannon from Craig-Hallum has a target of 245

Roy from Stifel Nicolaus has a target of 250

Lipacis from Evercore ISI has a target of 352

So, the average is 272 and the high is 360 and the low is 220.  This is from their top 40 ranked analysts.

This is great! Right before I opened this thread, I had just finished reading the article about Arcuri and NVDA. I had never heard of him before,

I appreciate the feedback and your time!! I have a virtual meeting with the (potential) advisor early next week. He will give me some of his ideas, for my holdings.

@soccergal

 Great!  Good luck.

Hi Raiders, I met with both my friend’s CFP ( he doesn’t offer hourly fee service, only %age of AUM) and the Vanguard Personal Asset Manager ( showed me his suggested plan). The CFP uses Dimensional for direct indexing ( Dimesional charges 0.18%). Sounds like the SMA is very hard to unwind, if you want to when the time comes.  He used the words, “stuck in it” to describe it, at first.

Vanguard does some level of TLH using their etfs. Wasn’t too impressed with the assigned Vanguard guy ( he is new to the company). He suggested that I sell a lot of my stock positions ( not surprising) and would leave me with $150k capital gains. I had to remind him that it would be even more capital gains if I sold the suggested equities, since NJ also taxes capital gains.  

I really wanted someone that could offer TLH ( my nvda position exceeds my TIAA portfolio now). I was trying to decrease the capital gains as best I could. I’m not interested in Donor Advised Fund right now.  One guy that I work with uses Betterment for TLH. I had never heard of this platform.

  As for now, I’m holding the large NVDA position, just hoping this stock doesn’t keep going down.  It seems as though the stronger the news on the stock, the worse it falls.  

Fee only advisor maybe hard to find. I don’t think that I know anyone that personally uses one. 

@soccergal

 Very good to hear that you talked to them.

So, what are your thoughts about what you are thinking about doing now?

I have a lot to say/ask about what they said.

But I would like to know a couple of things.

Are you planning to unload all of your NVDIA?  It is maintaining a nice range and is still beating S&P for the last year.

So, are you just trying to take a large profit now on some of it?

You know this stock very well.  Do you doubt that it will be a winner for the next few years?

I hope I did not prejudice you about what I said about a younger advisor.  I just think most people would do well to take advantage of a person with more experience.

But that does not mean that a younger one will not do fine for you.  They all get a great education and have to start somewhere.  If they are trying to make a good start they might even be more interested in doing very well for you than someone that is already set up.

But when it comes to your money, you need to be very comfortable with the person and really feel that you can trust them.

I am not a big fan of most people using an advisor that wants a % instead of a fee.  Because they 'might' be more inclined to put more effort into the much larger portfolios they have because of the %.  They also will always want more control than some people might be willing to give them.  Then they have a ready-made copout when things don't go so well.  They can say they did not have enough flexibility (control).  That sort of implies they assume they know better than you do.  They might and should (because it is their job) but it should never be a tug-of-war; it should be a situation where you come to an agreement and no 'blame' is allowed for bad decisions.

Do you plan to retire there or do you not really know?

Because if you are considering retiring in Florida or somewhere that has no state tax?  Because that would help with that part of the capital gains if you could hold off unloading a large part of it.

Do you intend to do this all in one, or two, tax years?  Or do you think you could do it over a period of years?  That would also help.

Yes, SMA can be very tricky to 'unwind'.  But you can really exit any time you like.  It simply will require the 'tax planning' then.

Yes, the ETFs are designed to be more tax efficient.  But the TLH is not automatic.  The issue is if you use their advisors to do it for you.  They might just jump at chances to do it as systematic or as aggressively as you might like.  So, essentially, it is not 'true direct indexing'.

Yes, Betterment offers harvesting.  But they are sort of a robot-advisor.  They auto harvest losses. by switching losing ETFs to similar ETFs.  I am not a fan of this.  Because I think if you are selective enough you are choosing ETFs you want for a long term and should hold for a profit.

Since your main concern seems to be a big NVDA winner, I just do not see how a plan based around TLH will help with that.  Because I get the sense that this largely overwhelms any losers you might be holding.

So, it is a situation where you cannot avoid the gains.  So, it is a question of how to minimize when and how much you gains you realize.

@soccergal

 It is very tricky to all of a sudden trust someone completely with your money.  It is even trickier when you likely know as much or more than they do.

Because you KNOW your situation far better than they do.  They are very minimally understanding several folk's situations all at once.

One-size does not fit all for sure.

Last year an older, retired couple that know I invest asked me if they could ask me a question they had about their portfolio.

Basically, they were not getting the return they had been in past years and thought their guy had done something wrong.

They were planning to go to the States for a while and a cruise or something.  

They are not hurting for money but when they went to pull a chunk out to do their stuff they realized the return was down.

So, I asked them what sort of things the guy had their stuff in.

Then I told them the guy was really doing exactly what he should do for them at their age and situation.  He had shifted a larger % into bonds and stable fund stuff.

So, I had to explain to them that the interest rates had been up for a while and that hurt them a bit.

But he had them in the usually recommended mix for them.  But I told them if they felt they wanted a change to talk to the guy and have him shift things a bit.  I had to explain in a nice way to them that the time to be agressive and get the returns they saw years earlier were back then.  Now they needed to be more conservative.

After that they seemed happy and understood it was fine.

So, sometimes people just need reassurance that they are doing the right thing.

I say all of that to say this:  If you did not feel comfortable with these folks or their advice, it is fine to see someone you do fell comfortable with.

Like I told this folks, they are in a good place.

Likewise, you are in a great place and have a very pleasant issue to deal with.

The whole purpose in investing is to make a profit.  Paying capital gains taxes is just part of the deal.  You just have to decide if you want to unload enough right now that you are okay with paying a chunk on.  I know you do not want the whole hit right now.  But if you spread it over a 3-5 year period and are still left holding some of a great stock at the end -- maybe that is the best plan.

You also have to ask how you would feel if you unload NVDA (or most of it) and it doubles in the next 5 years?

Lastly, you still have to consider if you go the right with direct indexing and advisor fees.  Do those costs offset your tax hit enough to warrant doing that.

Of course, as you build a larger and larger portfolio you want to diversify and not lose it -- absolutely.

Another thing to consider is if you can actually do this by holding off using your other retirement funds and sell off chunks of NVDA for a few years.  Some folks are in this situation with stocks and dividends and their SS or pension continues to grow a bit more before they start ti use it.

There are a lot of things to consider.  But the markets are doing fine now even without a fed rate drop and with the Iran situation.  

So, I think you have plenty of time to get a plan in place you will be comfortable with.

Sorry if I had typos or errors in all of this because I typed it fairly quick.

Thank you again for your response! You are very generous with your time & I appreciate that.  

One thing I will say is that what I have achieved up until this point is pure 100% luck. I have no knowledge as to how to assess corporate profiles or their future successes or failures. I know nothing about stock picking. Over th years, I picked a few household names ( Apple, google, Costco, Amazon). I don’t know anything about P/E ratios or anything like that. My background is in hospital pharmacy. While I love reading about the market and  financial planning type books/ articles/ sites, etc. I cannot say that I can pick anything ( going forward) with confidence.  My strengths have been living beneath my means and savings. That being said, I’m leaning towards hiring my friend’s Harvard classmate as my CFP. He is part owner of the firm so I think he is very responsive and passionate about what he does.

In many things, I try and see if there is a DIY opportunity, especially as a way to save money. But in this case, I may just have to realize that I KNOW what I don’t know. And it’s ok to pay someone. I’m trying to figure out a way where ( I can ask for) his fee won’t apply to my TIAA acct balance. 

I really have no idea what to believe, except for what I read , about NVDA’s future. Even then I can’t tell whose predictions are correct. I don’t need the NVDA position to be cashed out yet. I plan on working a number of years and don’t need the money right now.  I simply got ‘spooked’ when the TIAA rep told me that my NVDA position was way too concentrated and that I held it across 15  funds that I own also.  I would happily keep my NVDA position intact, IF someone more knowledgeable than I were to tell me that.   

If NVDA  were to double in the next 5 years, I’d be lying if I said I would be ok with that. ( is there a potential tech bubble??? I really cannot tell.)  But , I can learn to be ok with that ( I suppose).  I’ve always seen my investments as a way to secure my financial freedom in the future.  Ever since I began investing, all I ever wanted was for my money ( that I worked for) to make ME money.  I live simply and don’t need flashy things. My salary never goes up more than by 2 or 3 % each year, so it was never something to get excited about. But ROI on my portfolio has been a different story.  

One thing I believe that the CFP will do is create tax losses, as a means of harvesting, and hopefully save me capital gains taxes as I try and rebalance.  My existing portfolio has a few losses ( paypal, BGH). I have read that direct indexing is tax deferral. As long as their are gains, going forward, I, ok with paying taxes. 

May or may not retire in NJ. We rent two weeks a year in FL for vacation, right now, so there is a chance we may vacation in that tax friendly state!  

I’m hoping this market recovers soon.

If only someone had a crystal ball and could reassure me that I would be ok holding NVDA for the next five to ten years, I would love that.

@soccergal

 Advisors that charge % of AUM cost far, far too much I think.  
For sure, I would keep the TIAA separate. 
 
The TIAA advisors are free and don’t you usually get a different one every time you call.  I would talk to a couple of different ones and explain to them your situation in your personal portfolio and see what they recommend.  
Can’t you sort of get ‘free’ advice this way.  

I am not big on profit-based advisors either.  These charge only on profits.  But in good years the cost can be far more than the AUM because they charge a higher percentage — up to 12-20% of profits.  

BUT with a Harvard guy doing AUM, I would imagine his percentage has to be close to 1%.  

Just take a nice sized 1,000,000 and drop a couple of zeroes off.  Do you really want to pay 10,000 a year.  Or 100,000 over a ten-year period.  

If he is exceptional and your friend has been using him for years and he is really beating the market consistently—maybe. 

But a reasonable fee-based advisor should be able to give you a plan to start unloading NVDA and other stocks and moving them into solid ETFs.  The TIAA folks can help I think give you an idea on this. 

But I think you are selling yourself way short on your knowledge of the stocks and what to buy and what are good stocks.  
I think the guy is correct that you may be too tech heavy.  But are you really if you plan to work a few more years.   You have plenty of time to slowly rebalance.  
Is this the right time to even think of rebalancing. 

I would look a bit harder for a fee-based advisor to look at it.  
Or, if you use the AUM guy and are not happy — you can always drop him later.  

But I think you should take your time on deciding to do anything right away.  

The TIAA rep that I have been speaking to annually for the past few years cannot manage the portfolio. He can rebalance it, using his computer model. He suggested that I pay for one of his TIAA wealth advisors.  They charge % age AUM also. ( 0.9% on first one million, 0.7% on the next $2 million, next $5 million is 0.5%).

My friend knows the CFP that she recommended but she hasn’t used him for her own money management.  She has a family member that works for Morgan Stanley, so she uses him.

The fee for the CFP does depend on the amt of money that they manage. It would come out to about 0.85% for me.  I really DO dread paying so much for a service, like this, but I’m wondering ( and hoping) that he can add enough value to offset the fee.  I am going back and forth a million ways to try and justify this expense and my mind keeps changing. There are calculators online that show you the ‘drag’ on the account that the fee could produce.  It’s a lot.   (Perhaps ot would work the other way, and help me produce some nice gains, also, while reducing risk?) My stock picking abilities really are non existent though….pick household names: that was my approach all along.  

I have started selling some NVDA positions this past week ( about 300 shares).  It is such a tough decision as I think about how to proceed.  I really want to hold onto my shares, but I also have to try and preserve what I have, from an accumulation standpoint.  I plan on working another 4-6 years, but it’s also nice to know that the TIAA advisor says that I can retire right now, if I wanted to.   I feel as though I may be gambling, too much, with my future,  if I don’t trim this NVDA position.   Can it reach  the target price that most analysts are predicting?  I’m trying to read the articles that are out there  this past month or so….not sure what to believe, since I am not a gamer.   Much respect Raiders! Appreciate your insights !

@soccergal

 She has a family member that works for Morgan Stanley, so she uses him.

Do you think there might be chance that she can ask him to look at yours for a fee?  Just for an assessment.

 I really DO dread paying so much for a service, like this, but I’m wondering ( and hoping) that he can add enough value to offset the fee.

Yes.  This is about the normal rate.  I do not think they would add much value for you because you seem knowledgeable enough to rearrange your own portfolio now that you have folks thinking you are tech heavy.  But some folks want the reassurance from an expert and that is fine.  But that is a huge cost.

I am going back and forth a million ways to try and justify this expense and my mind keeps changing. There are calculators online that show you the ‘drag’ on the account that the fee could produce.  It’s a lot.   (Perhaps ot would work the other way, and help me produce some nice gains, also, while reducing risk?)

I am glad that you are realize this is not an easy decision.  You certainly need to take your time before deciding.  

It is so tricky to find someone that is going to beat the indexes anyway.  There are very few funds that can beat, say the S&P 500, year in and year out.  These funds have many experts trying to do this.  So, to be fortunate enough to find a guy at a local branch that can do it might be tricky.  

Whereas, your TIAA guy that would use the computer model would just do what any online recommendations from experts would show.  That would likely be diversified in solid ETFs, mutual funds, stable value things, and bond funds -- according to your years to retirement and risk attitude, etc.

So, it may be worth using one for a year or two.  Then if you are not satisfied you can drop them.  But you do not want to get in a situation where you are bouncing from one guy to another trying to find a great one.  That is why I was hoping your friend's would be excellent.  But if even she does not use him -- maybe not.

My stock picking abilities really are non existent though….pick household names: that was my approach all along.

There is not much wrong with this.  There are many great examples of people picking stocks that they know and like and are, therefore, household names and doing great with them.

There is something to be said for just taking the top 10-15 stocks in the S&P 500.  Because in most years they will outperform the index on a whole.  You just lose diversity and are usually overly-reliant on one sector.  But that is why they are household names and at the top of the index.  Because they are big stocks that do well. 

@soccergal 

I have started selling some NVDA positions this past week ( about 300 shares).  It is such a tough decision as I think about how to proceed.

Yes, I understand that you are worried about being tech-heavy now and NVDA-heavy, since you also have that stock in a lot of your funds.

NVDA has done very well against the S&P the last year, 3 years, and 5 years.  So, there is nothing wrong with taking profits.  

The question is what to do with it now.  Do you automatically move it into some various funds or hold cash for a bigger dip on things.

NVDA is, more or less, at a key spot right now at the 200-day Moving Average.  So, a lot depends on what you think about it long term and the markets in general and the tech market specifically.

If it holds the 200 MA it can be a correction or a bullish recovery signal situation.  If it stays below it then it could be a sign of a deeper correction coming.

The S&P 500 is now below its 200 MA.  So, if it does not recover soon it could be the sign of a solid correction.

So, you have to decide if it time to buy something or hold off a bit.

Some folks will trade just on some of these technicals and see a good stock or index as time to buy when it hits these marks; others see it as a time to wait for further dip because they are not bouncing off these numbers but falling below them and staying below them.  Other traders will look mainly at the fundamentals of the equity and the market as a whole.

 I plan on working another 4-6 years, but it’s also nice to know that the TIAA advisor says that I can retire right now, if I wanted to.. 

That is great news!  Congratulations on doing a good job with that.

One thing I will add is be careful if your advisors seem to be just pushing you into hot markets.  Sometimes these folks will push folks into something that is currently way up in the hopes that it will continue up.  But it may have already made its big run and might be prepared to level off or head back down.  

This could be something like gold.  You see lots of folks pushing gold now.  But is it right for everyone now that it has made such a huge runup.  Same thing with NVDA or something like that.

Never forget that they work for you.  So, always ask a lot of questions.

Keep up the good job!

[Quote: Originally Posted by soccergal]The TIAA rep that I have been speaking to annually for the past few years cannot manage the portfolio. He can rebalance it, using his computer model. He suggested that I pay for one of his TIAA wealth advisors.  They charge % age AUM also. ( 0.9% on first one million, 0.7% on the next $2 million, next $5 million is 0.5%). My friend knows the CFP that she recommended but she hasn’t used him for her own money management.  She has a family member that works for Morgan Stanley, so she uses him. The fee for the CFP does depend on the amt of money that they manage. It would come out to about 0.85% for me.  I really DO dread paying so much for a service, like this, but I’m wondering ( and hoping) that he can add enough value to offset the fee.  I am going back and forth a million ways to try and justify this expense and my mind keeps changing. There are calculators online that show you the ‘drag’ on the account that the fee could produce.  It’s a lot.   (Perhaps ot would work the other way, and help me produce some nice gains, also, while reducing risk?) My stock picking abilities really are non existent though….pick household names: that was my approach all along.     I have started selling some NVDA positions this past week ( about 300 shares).  It is such a tough decision as I think about how to proceed.  I really want to hold onto my shares, but I also have to try and preserve what I have, from an accumulation standpoint.  I plan on working another 4-6 years, but it’s also nice to know that the TIAA advisor says that I can retire right now, if I wanted to.   I feel as though I may be gambling, too much, with my future,  if I don’t trim this NVDA position.   Can it reach  the target price that most analysts are predicting?  I’m trying to read the articles that are out there  this past month or so….not sure what to believe, since I am not a gamer.   Much respect Raiders! Appreciate your insights ![/Quote]

I think you did the right thing here by selling "a portion"  of your NVDA position.   You yourself above said you felt as though you may be gambling too much on big tech.  I think that assessment is correct, and I would continue the focus on "de-risking" your  individual tech stock exposure  over the next few years. This should be your primary goal,  ( But maybe do just enough selling each year to avoid pushing yourself into a higher tax bracket come tax time.    That's the other part of the equation you will want to look at closely.)  Diversification is " everything " when it comes to portfolio management,  just like Location is " everything " when it comes to Real Estate.   Remember,  Diversification is a form of " de-risking" the portfolio. 

Now, What to do w the NVDA proceeds?  That's a good problem to have, but I'd  avoid keeping it in cash for too long.   I'd plan on getting the money back in the market sooner, rather than later.   Maybe implement a hybrid plan where you immediately put half of it back into the VOO, and a good dividend ETF  ( VTV, VYM, SCHD) for further diversification from big tech.  The markets are a bit volatile right now, so implementing a 'dollar-cost-average ' over say a period of 12 months for the remaining balance can make a lot of sense. 

Also, you may want to introduce a Balanced Fund into the equation that includes bond exposure,  to further diversify the portfolio ? 

All in all, RAIDERS  has given you really good information.   Hopefully, this all helps you out a bit as you prepare for a joyful retirement! 

Thanks ! I’m just hoping that it’s ok ( from a risk perspective ) that I take a few years to diversify the nvda position ( in an effort to avoid the higher tax bracket). I found a site that advertises fee only ( hourly CFPs), but I may benefit from hiring someone to help me thru all of this ( and assist in TLH year round).

I have sold two FMAGX lots in my IRA ( last week) and switched to Vanguard funds ( I forget which ones) , in an effort to reduce NVDA exposure in my mutual funds. 

I have spent a lot of time on the bogleheads website. There is a lot of  info on those forums. It’s almost paralysis by analysis, for me, now.  Like Raiders suggested, I am also second guessing the timing of my selling.

@soccergal

 I don't think you should be second guessing the "timing" of your selling some NVDA & some FMAGX.. That's the logical first step.  Your goal should be to "right size" the portfolio by diversifying appropriately (sooner rather than later), while minimizing the tax hit as best you can.  You're starting that process. 

The next steps as you eluded to and we discussed earlier, sell more now, take a bigger tax hit, and achieve the diversification sooner,... or stagger the selling over years to minimize the tax bite, and take longer to achieve a better diversified portfolio.  Your answer will depend, "as funny as it sounds," what makes you sleep better at night.  A lot of financial books will tell you the same thing... Everyone has a different risk tolerance.  

Let us know how it works out with the CFP.  I'd be curious what they suggest.. 

The CFP that I was hoping to use won’t take me on as his client unless I let him include TIAA in the AUM fee ( very disappointing) . He can recommend one of his associates he said. I’m guessing that I don’t meet his minimum asset requirement (he’s a partner) without my TIAA acct. I can’t see spending another 0.85 % for him to manage TIAA 401k/403B when those funds have limited liquidity right now.

I’m going to continue to ask around for friend’s recommendations for a CFP.

The Schwab guy has been calling me offering to help w/ options ( something I know very little about) or Direct indexing ( now that I told him I wasn’t very interested in AQR). I haven’t called him back yet.