SDS/QID

thoughts on when to sell?

bought at 55.25....thinking will still have yet to see the bottom in the s&p

thinking this puppy will probably rise to 70 by the end of summer

also have some in QID at 37.23....would love to see that hit 50 as well

thanks folks

we kind of had that 2 weeks ago(i think) and then the market corrected itself and the indices kept falling last week.

i'd rather just keep the position instead of jumping in and jumping out

i agree with CCL...very bearish as well but 1270 is the bottom on the S&P barring a BSC style collapse

also...its probably better to be long an inflation hedge as a short, rather than short the market

wait...you really think that the S & P is only going to decline 4% more tops?

that is super optimistic

mu - 1270 on the S&P is a technical bottom...if it closes below, program selling kicks in

last few times we came close, the fed injected 100b of liquidity or had rate cuts...something to spark the market

i would worry about getting short the world here...esp so close to that magic number

see those long extended lines...the mkt may come close, but something happens to give it a little push upwards. i dont know what else the fed has up its sleeve

honestly, we need to purge the writedowns and bad debt ASAP or else the uncertainty hangs with us for years. no bailouts, no handouts, purge and burn...the mkt will clean itself up...always does

to sum it up, the mkt as a whole has been repricing risk for the last 10 months. how much risk do you want to take? what do i have to pay you (bank) to take risk? am i worthy of taking a risk on (lending)?

to answer in short...as little as possible; higher rates; unless you have 20% down and your fico score is higher than 770 then no thanks...i'll pass. (no more M&A, no more home loans, student loans, car loans, etc etc etc)

50-60% of the borrowing mkt disappeared overnight...quite amazing when you look at it from a distance

i am convinced that SDS is going to hit 70 before the holiday...basically the S&P needs to lose another 2% getting down to 1260ish which would equal the YTD low

trendline at 1270 (or so)

it keeps bouncing

barring LEH going under or oil spiking to $150...we flatline for a while

we got all the way down to 1260.5 this morning....absolutely no reason for the afternoon rally here....craziness.

oil might get to 150 next week....

 

the 1270 is the closing level for the S&P...intraday doesnt mean all that much, but closing below that level would be bad (for longs)

big jobs number tomorrow morning so the mkt will defintely move on it

i think the ECB meets tomorrow also to decide if they are going to raise rates by .25 bp

one would hope the potential rate hike is priced into the mkt...if not and he does raise rates then we are in for a wild ride

looking at that private sector job loss today and how much more it was than expectations....not looking good for the gov't report tomorrow

currently have a limit sell at 67.7 today but may take that off since I don't really have faith on that job report

I don't really have faith on that job report
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never underestimate the government's ability to fudge a number...esp before a long holiday weekend

see the CPI (which doesnt count food and energy)

i cant imagine the number is good but either way, it's always the # v expectations, not the number itself

i think we see a sub-1260 close on the S&P tomorrow