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    All Forums | Investments

    Oil per barrel will be going down to near $25

    smacksmiter
    bigvern1013
    slamspurs
    westy9854
    CountCrisco
    ...
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    Views: 1431
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    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Mar. 20, 2015 - 2:13 PM ET #1

    Not sure who it was I talked to over in CG's epic thread about going to Vegas to be a pro gambler, but we had a short discussion about him holding crude oil call options for later this year and he needed an uptick in crude prices to make some money.

    I had said there was a huge glut of oil coming into the market and he disagreed by basically saying that was just propaganda of the main stream media.

    I am going to start posting, in this thread, different articles as I find them that discuss the price of oil.

    Here is the first one.

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/03/19/low-oil-prices-ahead-as-fracking-breaks-even-at-25barrel/

    Should be interesting.

    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Not sure who it was I talked to over in CG's epic thread about going to Vegas to be a pro gambler, but we had a short discussion about him holding crude oil call options for later this year and he needed an uptick in crude prices to make some money.

    I had said there was a huge glut of oil coming into the market and he disagreed by basically saying that was just propaganda of the main stream media.

    I am going to start posting, in this thread, different articles as I find them that discuss the price of oil.

    Here is the first one.

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/03/19/low-oil-prices-ahead-as-fracking-breaks-even-at-25barrel/

    Should be interesting.

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Mar. 20, 2015 - 2:19 PM ET #2

    More and more and more good stuff.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-20/rig-count-plunge-continues-total-rigs-lowest-march-2011-fastest-drop-1986
    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    More and more and more good stuff.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-20/rig-count-plunge-continues-total-rigs-lowest-march-2011-fastest-drop-1986
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Mar. 20, 2015 - 2:22 PM ET #3

    It just keeps on coming...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-20/just-global-oil-glut-deepens-china-cuts-oil-imports
    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    It just keeps on coming...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-20/just-global-oil-glut-deepens-china-cuts-oil-imports
     
    bigvern1013
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: Mar. 21, 2015 - 12:31 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Not sure who it was I talked to over in CG's epic thread about going to Vegas to be a pro gambler, but we had a short discussion about him holding crude oil call options for later this year and he needed an uptick in crude prices to make some money.

    I had said there was a huge glut of oil coming into the market and he disagreed by basically saying that was just propaganda of the main stream media.

    I am going to start posting, in this thread, different articles as I find them that discuss the price of oil.

    Here is the first one.

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/03/19/low-oil-prices-ahead-as-fracking-breaks-even-at-25barrel/

    Should be interesting.

    It was me. The "jump" in oil prices is not a huge rally, but some strength above 50$ by August......pretty good trade location for the call options.

    The September Calls are currently out of the money, but the Sept CL contract is trading at 52.05...the strike is 50 even...looking for a rally by the end of May, to put these things in the money.  If not, then I will be cutting my position, and most likely riding the remaining call to expiration.

    Just have to wait and see.

    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Not sure who it was I talked to over in CG's epic thread about going to Vegas to be a pro gambler, but we had a short discussion about him holding crude oil call options for later this year and he needed an uptick in crude prices to make some money.

    I had said there was a huge glut of oil coming into the market and he disagreed by basically saying that was just propaganda of the main stream media.

    I am going to start posting, in this thread, different articles as I find them that discuss the price of oil.

    Here is the first one.

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/03/19/low-oil-prices-ahead-as-fracking-breaks-even-at-25barrel/

    Should be interesting.

    It was me. The "jump" in oil prices is not a huge rally, but some strength above 50$ by August......pretty good trade location for the call options.

    The September Calls are currently out of the money, but the Sept CL contract is trading at 52.05...the strike is 50 even...looking for a rally by the end of May, to put these things in the money.  If not, then I will be cutting my position, and most likely riding the remaining call to expiration.

    Just have to wait and see.

     
    slamspurs
    slamspurs
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    Posts: 5721
    Posted: Mar. 22, 2015 - 7:51 AM ET #5

    I actually believe it's propaganda as well. $40 a barrel maybe, $25......no way.

    But I'm not an expert, so I'm not going to do any kind of explanations here. All I know is if people hear it in the media repeatedly, true or untrue, they start to believe it.

    Please revisit this thread in 3-6 month intervals and see where we are in the next couple of years.

    Reply

    I actually believe it's propaganda as well. $40 a barrel maybe, $25......no way.

    But I'm not an expert, so I'm not going to do any kind of explanations here. All I know is if people hear it in the media repeatedly, true or untrue, they start to believe it.

    Please revisit this thread in 3-6 month intervals and see where we are in the next couple of years.

     
    westy9854
    westy9854
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    Posts: 48
    Posted: Mar. 22, 2015 - 9:46 AM ET #6

    Smack! Where have u been ? Been looking for your picks. 
    Reply
    Smack! Where have u been ? Been looking for your picks. 
     
    CountCrisco
    CountCrisco
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2015 - 12:21 AM ET #7

    if you want to make some good money next two months, short this shale oil company called Oasis (symbol: OAS). Their stock went from $54 to currently $13 in less than a year and will be bankrupt within a few months guaranteed if oil stays below $55 a barrel. 

    I loaded on on a bunch of put options at strike price $13

    Short all the smaller shale companies and you will make a killing the next coming qtr. All the ones with $2billion or less in market cap are all going bankrupt within a year at these crude prices. 
    Reply
    if you want to make some good money next two months, short this shale oil company called Oasis (symbol: OAS). Their stock went from $54 to currently $13 in less than a year and will be bankrupt within a few months guaranteed if oil stays below $55 a barrel. 

    I loaded on on a bunch of put options at strike price $13

    Short all the smaller shale companies and you will make a killing the next coming qtr. All the ones with $2billion or less in market cap are all going bankrupt within a year at these crude prices. 
     
    CountCrisco
    CountCrisco
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2015 - 4:51 PM ET #8

    boom .....OAS tanked today 8%. Just made double on options investment in one single day. 
    Reply
    boom .....OAS tanked today 8%. Just made double on options investment in one single day. 
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2015 - 6:51 PM ET #9

    Yeah OAS is going to need to float shares..

    50M in cash and 2.7B in debt with equity sources shutting off, they wont have much choice..which means lower prices for the stock.

    Whiting floated tonight, and their cash to debt ratio is pretty close to OAS..

    I am a bit shocked Whiting did not fall more, that is some heavy dilution.
    Reply
    Yeah OAS is going to need to float shares..

    50M in cash and 2.7B in debt with equity sources shutting off, they wont have much choice..which means lower prices for the stock.

    Whiting floated tonight, and their cash to debt ratio is pretty close to OAS..

    I am a bit shocked Whiting did not fall more, that is some heavy dilution.
     
    CountCrisco
    CountCrisco
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    Posted: Mar. 25, 2015 - 12:03 AM ET #10

    ^^^ Whiting got killed today ......wow lost 20% in one day. Diluted the heck out of its float. Whiting may last longer because they have some decent shale reserves but I just dont see OAS making it past a year if crude doesnt reach $60. 
    Reply
    ^^^ Whiting got killed today ......wow lost 20% in one day. Diluted the heck out of its float. Whiting may last longer because they have some decent shale reserves but I just dont see OAS making it past a year if crude doesnt reach $60. 
     
    CountCrisco
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    Posted: Mar. 25, 2015 - 12:13 AM ET #11

    I agree, I think Whiting has more room to tank. If it stays in the 30's tomorrow, I'm going to short Whiting for about two weeks. I think it has room to tank another 15% within two weeks. 
    Reply
    I agree, I think Whiting has more room to tank. If it stays in the 30's tomorrow, I'm going to short Whiting for about two weeks. I think it has room to tank another 15% within two weeks. 
     
     
    sfg8
    sfg8
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2015 - 7:09 PM ET #12

    in sf bayarea (but not in SF) jst paid $2.89 for premium( $2.69 for reg)..lowest in  yrs...hope it stays low for awhile...
    Reply
    in sf bayarea (but not in SF) jst paid $2.89 for premium( $2.69 for reg)..lowest in  yrs...hope it stays low for awhile...
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