October Stock Talk V

They are pricing the options quite rich..the 30s are going for 7 or so and the 35s at more than 5..

Still too much blood in the water but if this ends up being nothing, the stock is an overnight double..on the other hand if NOT it could EASILY be a zero..no doubt about it.

 ANY Breeders Cup picks?

 As for Wellcare, they hired a damn good law firm, what is it that the FBI is looking for??? Have the feds announced that???

 The feds can put anyone out of business...but I too am very very tempted to gamble on a snapback rally...I need more info on what the feds are fishing for.If it is contained to a couple of execs, then there is money to be made on the comeback.
 

CFC running strong. The 17.50s are a 4 bagger..and STILL not that heavy premium wise.

I am ALSO tempted to try some 15 calls on CFC. They run it to 19 and those calls are 50% or more in return and are 2 plus in the money.

Look at that, boiler-room has a green bar.



I agree on that WCG..I have some cash in a Roth that is going unused I think I will buy a few shares...maybe 200 and see what happens.

That was quick, bot the shares at 32.75

Maybe a 2-3 buck stop in to be safe..say at 30 bucks.

For the record I have been on the WRONG side of these sort of things in the past.

I bot some drug company, starts with an A I think..years ago, got wacked off some investigation and I thought it was safe, well they ended up going down the crapper..

So I wont be holding this past 30..no way.

 I was thinking of buying, say, just one option and seeing what happens...will be looking for the BC pick boiler... I am feeling lucky...even though I have given up some of my  MSFT gains on  the free fall of Comcast

 I note Wellcare not at a 52 week low of 27.5

Vermeer,

I heard about that CMCSK report..home slowdown hitting their sub growth..bound to happen.

Great company longer term though, short term not at all of course.

CRDC looking terrible, me thinks based on experience they are going to keep drifting for a while..probably will sell my IMB for gains and nibble more on CRDC..(not today)

PTEC: Just FYI KOAJ not a comment or opinion re the stock from me

Company Scores Very Poor Fundamental Grades -
MarketGrader currently has a SELL rating on PHOENIX TECHNOLOGIES LTD (PTEC), based on a final overall grade of 38.5 scored by the company's fundamental analysis. PHOENIX TECHNOLOGIES LTD scores at the 37th percentile among all 5433 U.S. listed equities currently followed by MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to April 29, 2005, when it was downgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Systems Software sub-industry, which is comprised of 45 companies, PHOENIX TECHNOLOGIES LTD's grade of 38.5 ranks 25th. The industry grade leader is MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) with an overall grade of 83.0. The stock, up 23.01% in the last six months, has outperformed both the Systems Software group, down 2.33% and the S&P 500 Index, which has returned 0.43% in the same period.

Alibaba is massively oversubscribed Chinese IPO that Yahoo has a stake in. They closed the offering early, heavy heavy institutional demand..

Yahoo put in one billion as I recall

The Yahoo buy-in creates an online powerhouse in China and one that might delve deeper into the business-to-business e-commerce segment, while also focusing on consumer shopping online as well as online payments through the AliPay system -- similar to eBay's PayPal -- and search. The combined company will bear the Alibaba name.

Old article, still valid methinks...

https://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/45411.html

I remember reading about this.

Arent they an e-commerce site? Or am I thinking of a different Alibabba?

On a different note I put in a stop on this WCG stock at 31 for the day..if it pierces the low of the day I wont be holding over the weekend..

No way..  

Well that one is a gonner..

The stop triggered and they blew through it, then brought it back.

Lost 1.75 per share on that trade..

YHOO options gone from 8.75 to 11.65 today loving life right now!!!

  Sorry about getting stopped out in your trade. I have a fear of that and sometimes it has cost me, as I have held on long after I should have...

 Have a good weekend. This market has been a wild one...and will remain so I think...then will come the crash of 2008, or so I think.But then again I thought today was going to be a disaster, so WTF do I know.

No prob and thanks.

I dont mind getting stopped out, especially with this one. There are middle odds that they go under, no kidding.

Been in these situations before and I played it how I felt it was right, win or lose.

Nice job on yahoo, and nice job going deep ITM on those options!

Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stake of  PetroChina (PTR). Buffett made seven times his investmnt in PetroChina but told a Fox News interviewer, "We still sold it too soon. I left a lot of money on the table."


  I felt he thought the China bubble was about to burst, but maybe not.And getting 7x your money is not bad...I am sticking with his BRKB shares. Can't think of anyone better to trust my money with...anyone remotely like him who knows tech stocks (cause he does not) I would love to know their name.
 
 Any ideas for the coming week?

  I expect oil to continue its climb every time we debase our currency and I expect Bernanke to do so again, so holdig on to all oil stocks. Also going to ride Yahoo for the moment.

Shares in Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile , Research) surged as much as 8.5 percent late in the trading session on Friday on expectations it will benefit from huge demand for a public offering by Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba.com Ltd.

Internet media company Yahoo is buying 10 percent of the share sale by Alibaba.com Ltd, and already has a 40 percent stake in the company's parent, Alibaba Group.

Alibaba.com's initial public offering was expected to price at the top of its range after attracting more than US$180 billion in orders from institutional investors. It is scheduled to price on October 27 and begin trading in Hong Kong on November 6.

"Investors are going gaga for Alibaba, and Yahoo will own around 35 percent of Alibaba once it goes public," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Jordan Rohan, who rates Yahoo at "outperform" with a $36 price target.

Other news helping Yahoo included an announcement this week that Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile , Research) will invest in Facebook in a deal that values the social network at $15 billion.

"There is some belief that if a tiny little piece of Facebook (makes it) worth $15 billion, Yahoo needs to be worth more than it trades," Rohan said.

In the options market, Yahoo calls caught on fire as many investors positioned for continued share gains. Yahoo options were one of most actively traded contracts in that market.

I would like to know of specific people you may read/follow.If you are like me, you do not have time to delve as deeply as you might like, so I cherry pick what I think are the best plays by the best players in a particular field.

The people I track as closely as I can are, in no particular order, Buffett, Soros, Zell, and Rogers. I rely on Buffett for general estimations, Soros (primarily on currency) Zell (real estate and general ideas) and Rogers on commodities and currency.

 When these guys all agree on a particular stock or on specific  macroeconomic trends, I follow with both fists.

Last post for now promise...forgot T Boone Pickens for the oil patch.

Vermeer,

I dont follow Buffet at all, his time of influencing the market was in the past. Now he has enough money and assets that he cherry picks deals from the inside versus buying stock in the open market like he was known for. I dont agree with PLENTY of what he has to say, and until recently his shares have been just poking along due to its critical mass..I would never own BRK A or B.

I have watched Rogers for so long and he beat the wrong drum for YEARS..now he is right, but he has been saying the same things, and I think the reason he is RIGHT isnt because of what he was saying, rather the way the FED has killed the currency..which was NOT what he was saying back into the 90's. I dont agree with the gold hounds, and I doubt I ever will since the real demand for gold doesnt exist the same way other commodities like silver or oil or platinum etc.

I like Pickens more than Soros..but I should read more from them. They are also INSIDERS..I want to follow people who are in the trenches like me, not that have TRILLIONS and inside connections to the market.

One other comment..I dont like the YAHOO valuation theory because some other company is buying some private firm that it means Yahoo is worth more..that kind of talk has happened in the past and it never lasts. On the Alibabba ownership..that is not part of continuing operations, thus once the sale is done, that money goes to either reduce debt or just to the cash stockpile..it is not part of revenues, so I dont really think it adds ANY real value to the share price. Maybe they knock out some of that 3/4 Billion in debt..

I value YAHOO based on their revenues and profits, margins etc compared to their peers, not what Microsoft is willing to buy an equal property or a cash windfall from a one time investment..

 WSC:

 I follow insiders for that reason:they are inside, and everyone else is on the outside looking in.

 Buffett may have to change his picks due to the size of his portfolio, that I agree with, but BRKB, my most conservative holding, has gone up 15% since March.If that is "poking along", I will gladly poke along with him.(When I can rest comfortably AND get around 15 percent in 8 months, I am personally in nirvana!) As to whether he no longer influences the market, I think you might be exaggerating:the mere mention of his name causes a stock to move, no matter how groundless the rumor turns out to be. And frankly, I do not think Graham's principles now are less persuasive than in 1950, or 1930.If anything, they are more timely.

  Rogers has been right since 1999. I invested before then, sure, but he has been right for 8 years.How many people can say that? He has been saying what is obvious to all but the most obtuse by now, that the Fed is obliterating the value of the dollar.They chose to, under Greenspan, now they have to. Go against that thought at your own peril (but from your previous comments, I do not think you do).

 Everyone knows (well, maybe not everyone) that the market misjudges a stock's fundamentals, that is what creates opportunity.(The "efficient market" baloney is just that:baloney) I try to take advantage of market mistakes. So do these guys. (ie, sure I know Yahoo is not necessarily more valuable fundamentally at this very moment than Wednesday night:but tell that to the options market, that mistakenly (or not) disagrees!!. )
 
Whom do you follow? If no one, I can respect that, but I know I am not that smart. I can't play that game.(I forgot to add John Templeton, the first person I realized had the big picture right.)I just do not see much on him any more.(He has to be 90 by now I guess)

 I would love to know who you might rely on.I will never stop listening:I have gotten some incredible wisdom from people many I knew dismissed out of hand at the time they spoke...there is a line from Shakespeare: for wisdom cries out in the
                    streets, and no man regards it.
                                               
                                             Henry IV part I

Vermeer,

Good comments and here are some answers and comments of my own.

I have been in the markets long enough that more than people I follow it is what trends and patterns I follow. Out of the group you listed I observe Jimmy more than any others. I am not a fan at all of Buffet, he made hay when the timing was right, now he has enough smart people and money around him, he will never repeat what he did in the past and I actually question MANY of the Birkshire holdings he has..but I digress there.

As for "peak oil" I think it will only crush us as a country if we ALLOW it to. I feel technology and efficiencies will improve and oil will become less and less important. I think the market is reflecting that. If it werent, the market would be getting crushed and the world economy in the toilet. We will develop more supply or more technology. Just like in the past when supply constraints hit our country we always find a way around it and this will be no different.

I dont know enough about Soros but I could learn plenty from investors and thinkers in the Asian continent..it is an area I really lack.

My comment about yahoo is that I have known this stock since it was new to the market and I have seen these valuation discussions before and unfortunately the stock really never has dominated in the group market cap wise or margin wise. I think the management of the company isnt considered top tier, thus they are never the leader of the industry, from back in the .COM boom to now. You could win shorter term but I dont feel confident about their revenue and profit potential, and I will never own the stock again, barring a severe correction in the market and the stock were to be decimated.