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October Stock Talk V

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Posted: #51
Personally, am going to look to sell short CFC common some time this upcoming week. 
 
Most likely, a 50% buy in to start, and then if it gets squeezed to the 20ish level by the manipulators (if I'm already in), then the last 50%.  If the manipulators run it to 20 the next few days, and I'm lucky enough to be on the sidelines, then I am "ALL-IN" for a short at any price 19-20ish.
 
This may be the easiest short-term (3-4 month) "trade" of the upcoming Q.
 
Cheers
 
Legend
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Posted: #52
Currently own calls on CF and Drys.  Thinking of buying some YHOO calls as well.  CF earnings on Monday.   THe stock is a beast.  I think she hits 100 by year end. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #53

You guys probably already saw this:

 

REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Oct 29, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Oct. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/-- Cardica, Inc. (CRDC, Trade ) today announced that it plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, 1,500,000 shares of its common stock for sale by Cardica and 2,579,795 shares of its common stock for sale by a selling stockholder in an underwritten public offering. Cardica will not receive any proceeds from sales of shares made by the selling stockholder. Cardica expects to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 611,969 shares of common stock from Cardica to cover over-allotments, if any.

 
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Posted: #54
Reason for sell-off last few days........news of the offerring was leaked, as it usually is.
 
IMO, GOOD!!!!!
 
CRDC gets in the 9s, then I am gladly doubling up and am happy to get shares of this ticker symbol "on sale."
 
20ish by end of 2008.
 
Cheers
 
Prospect
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Posted: #55

Jeff,

 

Let me start out by saying I no squat about CF directly.  However, I work for a small specialty chemical manufacturer here in SE Michigan.  For the past three years or so, our raw material prices have probably increased 33% or so on our larger usage items.  However, we are beginning to see signs of that changing, and we are able to once again exert some pressure on our venders for price reductions, which we are getting, due to their excess capacity.  It’s probably just a sign of an overall slowing economy.  I also believe Dow missed their numbers last week, which is a supplier of ours.  Also, my company has begun to look at Chinese suppliers as well, but I do not think at this point that they will be logistically/economically feasible.

 

Overall, I see decreasing margins due to pricing pressures and excess capacity in the chemical industry. This is just my small and limited macro-economic view of the chemical industry.

 

Regards.

 
Veteran
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Posted: #56
 

 Couple of points: Yahoo is a speculation, not an investment for me.I hope the market is fooled for a few weeks (or gets it right:either way is OK, if it goes up briefly).

 I think you are way optimistic regarding replacing petroleum. Take a look at one of America's ideas of what to do:ethanol. A product that requires as much petroleum to produce as gasoline! That has to be transported by...trucks, not pipelines!!! Some solution! I hope you are right however, am just not betting on it.

 CFC is another Enron to me but I don't have the cajones to short it.

 GL guys should be another interesting week!!

 

 


 
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Posted: #57
Vermeer-
 
It's a dicey short ahead of the FOMC coming rate cut.  For sure.
 
The manipulators could decide to run it and terrorize the shorts......just like they did last Sep 18.  Then again, they could leave CFC alone so they can focus on terrorizing solar shorts some more.  It all depends on where the most money to be made resides.
 
But over the next 3-4 months, CFC goes down to the 10-12 range, but it'll be a slow grind down with vicious short covering spikes in the interim which will scare (me at least) many shorts into at least thinking about covering.
 
I think it's an easy winner the next 3-4 months (shorting it), but letting it grind down to 10-12 will take some resolve, cause on the days it gets squeezed, it'll seem like it's going to go to the moon.
 
Short selling is rough, for sure.
 
I'll post, if I can, when I am about to short it.  I am going to do it, but do not want to open myself up for a blindside squeeze this Wednesday if I determine that a squeeze will be put down hard by the manipulators.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #58
Vermeer-
 
One thing that will help shorts in CFC is the season.....not many real estate deals get done between Tgiving and Super Bowl.
 
I've always said that the new business year doesn't begin until after the Super Bowl.
 
That being said, there will be a lot of negativity emanating from the idiot media pundits yapping about slow Chrsitmas, horrible economy, housing bubble, no new construction, etc......Think about it.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #59
If the current trend continues, Wednesday will be "sell the fact" day, cause at least for now, Wed's rate cut is "buy the rumor."
 
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Posted: #60
Manipulators having a field day attacking and destroying solar short positions today.
 
SPWR has been run straight up in a vertical climb since the open.
 
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Posted: #61
Goddamn it must be fun to just walk in to work right now, attack solar shorts, and walk out with obscene amounts of money.
 
One thing, though, is this can't and won't last forever.  The solars are currently going through a very mini and scaled down version of "dot com euphoria" that occurred in late 90s.
 
 
 
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Posted: #62
Most of these solar companies will be losers and never see the black.
 
3-5 years from now, many of these will be about 90% lower.
 
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Posted: #63

 I tend to agree with all you say above CC...about solar stocks,seem like  dot com mania redux to me, and  about the FOMC unknowns re CFC.Already been stopped out of the Yahoo options, but better to lock in profits than watch it back down to buy point...I'll take it and keep moving.

 
 

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #64
Good comment fellas..

Grid, we knew about the secondary for CRDC, their largest shareholder Guidant is selling..which is fine with me. It makes me think the company didnt want to be taken over and Guidant needs the cash. It has ZERO to do with the company to be honest.

What happened to Yahoo?

So I get up today thinking it was daylight savings or whatever and it wasnt..looked at the calender wrong and I miss the solar run..

Go figure..
 
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Posted: #65
WSC-
 
No offense, man.....you know this stuff much better than I do.....but please don't tell me you're trying to get in some call option on FSLR and keep missing fills!!!
 
Buy the common.  Make it easy on yourself.  Hell, even at this crazy price circa 155, FSLR common will print black at sell time around 180ish.
 
If you miss this, man, I don't know what to tell you.
 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #66
claycourt,

I am looking at the stock for a higher action move, thus the call options.

I didnt miss any fills, rather I went to bed last night thinking I was in MST and not PST and the market would be opening when I got up..but its not till next week, and DRYS and SPWR and FSLR moved 4 pts since the open, now even more..haha

A move from 155 to 180 is not even 20%, that might sound good but for locking up capital I dont like the trade.

I see my WCG stop ended up being useless...lol
 
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Posted: #67
Well, now it's 157ish.
 
157 to 180 is about 12%.  Not a bad ROI, even with the 28% ass-ream, especially when it could happen within next 3 months.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #68
yeah but the same options would return significantly more..

When a stock gets this expensive, even going deep ITM calls is smarter than buying the common if you are ok with the risk.

I just calculated and the CRDC seller is ALL Guidant..which is fine with me..they made a decent return and need the cash so that is fine, thus the stock bounce..  
 
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Posted: #69

 Not sure about Yahoo's plummet, but the options I had went from 11.75 to 10 currently, and I had a stop at 11.I entered at 8.75 four dys ago I think, so am happy, but may enter again if it goes down into anothr range.

 A personal question, my dad has two accounts that have TOD designations attached to them.Does that complicate moving them to someone like Scottrade or whomever?  What is the best all round electronic based broker (I use Tradeking for options but he does not deal with options)?? Any help appreciated.


 
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Posted: #70
Yeah, WSC, you're right with the return from calls, but they're harder to fill, harder to close, over-priced, and there is too much gap between bid/ask.  To me, buying call options on something like FSLR would be like buying points in football.
 
Good luck, hope you get on this freight train, man.  It would bother me if you miss it.
 
Was hoping CRDC would get sold off by public today so I could get some more on the cheap.....not happening.
 
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Posted: #71

 Nice info on CRDC...I remain in it for the long term.

 
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Posted: #72
 Vermeer-
 
Smart.  Use sell-offs to add exposure.  This looks and feels like a good winner for the long haul.
 
20ish by end of '08.......
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #73
Claycourt,

CRDC dropped a buck on the open obviously on bad info regarding the secondary. It looks like the company is selling 1M or so, which is fine, I dont care about that..and the 2.5 is ALL Guidant. Go to yahoo finance enter the symbol and then click on major holders, its Guidant Holdings or whatever..its Guidant..

FSLR is on fire as usual...the dips we get are being down 50 cents or flat on the day..geez.

It wouldnt shock me to see them run FSLR to near 200 around earnings next month..

 
Prospect
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Posted: #74
ACUS.  Still holding this turd.  Seems to be a "relatively" large block wanting in at $1.35.  They have a conference next Tuesday.  Hoping for some kind of bounce, then I'm out. My basis is $1.45, with a total amount invested equal to the amount of a trip to the MGM Casino Detroit.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #75

 If CC and WSC agree that FSLR is headed up, what options would you be looking at (for me, the cheaper and further out, the better??)

 I got my answer on the TOD thing, stupid question.$35 buck fee.However, I would still like to know what brokers you guys like (and for my info only, which one allows the most access to foreign market trading??) I suppose I stick with the people I am with for options but am still looking to trade on foreign markets

 

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