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    All Forums | Investments

    October Stock Talk III

    «First Previous 123456
    wallstreetcappers
    KOAJ
    Vermeer
    Gridophiles
    claycourtlesson
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 2654
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    «First Previous 123456
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 1:22 PM ET #126

    Well I mentioned last week that these stocks will get hit, even if during an uptrend.

    We need to follow moving averages and find good entry points for stocks like CSUN and CHNR etc..
    Reply
    Well I mentioned last week that these stocks will get hit, even if during an uptrend.

    We need to follow moving averages and find good entry points for stocks like CSUN and CHNR etc..
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 1:44 PM ET #127

    Nibbled on some CRDC at 11.35 today..

    I had no position after getting stopped out at 13.50
    Reply
    Nibbled on some CRDC at 11.35 today..

    I had no position after getting stopped out at 13.50
     
    KOAJ
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 2:53 PM ET #128

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Koaj,

    That is what they say.

    Last time I checked Iraq oil supply was in shambles and production as a percentage of world supply is quite minimal.

    Good excuse to run it up though I guess.  


    agreed...either way its all crooked bullshit

    just keep shorting banks and other financials and you'll be fine

    CFC
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Koaj,

    That is what they say.

    Last time I checked Iraq oil supply was in shambles and production as a percentage of world supply is quite minimal.

    Good excuse to run it up though I guess.  


    agreed...either way its all crooked bullshit

    just keep shorting banks and other financials and you'll be fine

    CFC
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 3:19 PM ET #129

    SKF remains good for me regarding the financials (shorting them, that is)....but I am looking at Wells Fargo as possible purchase....
    Reply
    SKF remains good for me regarding the financials (shorting them, that is)....but I am looking at Wells Fargo as possible purchase....
     
    Gridophiles
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 3:38 PM ET #130

    I had been watching SKF for a long time but didn't buy.  I started to believe all the numb nut's on TV and their kitchen sink bull sh!t regarding the financials that I thought the worst was already priced in the stocks.

     

     

    Reply

    I had been watching SKF for a long time but didn't buy.  I started to believe all the numb nut's on TV and their kitchen sink bull sh!t regarding the financials that I thought the worst was already priced in the stocks.

     

     

     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 3:39 PM ET #131

    vermeer - wells does tons of mortgage business...beware
    Reply
    vermeer - wells does tons of mortgage business...beware
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 4:03 PM ET #132

    Quote Originally Posted by Gridophiles:

    I had been watching SKF for a long time but didn't buy.  I started to believe all the numb nut's on TV and their kitchen sink bull sh!t regarding the financials that I thought the worst was already priced in the stocks.

     

     



    gridophiles - investor confidence = more investors in their funds...so they tell you want you want to hear

    dont believe them....this is probably the first leg down if that. the superfund thing the other day is code for Citigroup bailout...they are into these SIVs for $50+ bil and its the future is not bright

    if you want a good indicator of big boy confidence or lack of...watch the 13 week treasury(i linked a 5 day chart)...anything under 4% is pretty bearish. thats the first place people will fly to quality when equities take a dump

    be careful buying anything not tech or not international...the path of least resistance is ALWAYS down
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Gridophiles:

    I had been watching SKF for a long time but didn't buy.  I started to believe all the numb nut's on TV and their kitchen sink bull sh!t regarding the financials that I thought the worst was already priced in the stocks.

     

     



    gridophiles - investor confidence = more investors in their funds...so they tell you want you want to hear

    dont believe them....this is probably the first leg down if that. the superfund thing the other day is code for Citigroup bailout...they are into these SIVs for $50+ bil and its the future is not bright

    if you want a good indicator of big boy confidence or lack of...watch the 13 week treasury(i linked a 5 day chart)...anything under 4% is pretty bearish. thats the first place people will fly to quality when equities take a dump

    be careful buying anything not tech or not international...the path of least resistance is ALWAYS down
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 4:05 PM ET #133

    also...this blog is a must read before you go long anything related to US financials
    Reply
    also...this blog is a must read before you go long anything related to US financials
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 4:39 PM ET #134

    They are going to be Yelling "Bring out your dead!" before this is fully absorbed!!! I remain as I have been bearish on the increasingly pathetic USD.
    These figures have been discussed before but they say it all in some respects...

    Does the way we define money matter? The U.S. Federal Reserve says not. It famously ceased publication of its M3 data in March 2006, claiming that the measure "had not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years."

    But lack of use didn't negate M3's value, however. Private economists have since pegged its growth rate above 10% per year. At the end of August this year, M3 growth hit 14%, according to analysis by John Williams at ShadowStats.

    "At least we should all be able to rest assured that a global deflation [a shrinking money supply] is not in the cards," as Rob Kirby notes for Financial Sense.


    Reply
    They are going to be Yelling "Bring out your dead!" before this is fully absorbed!!! I remain as I have been bearish on the increasingly pathetic USD.
    These figures have been discussed before but they say it all in some respects...

    Does the way we define money matter? The U.S. Federal Reserve says not. It famously ceased publication of its M3 data in March 2006, claiming that the measure "had not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years."

    But lack of use didn't negate M3's value, however. Private economists have since pegged its growth rate above 10% per year. At the end of August this year, M3 growth hit 14%, according to analysis by John Williams at ShadowStats.

    "At least we should all be able to rest assured that a global deflation [a shrinking money supply] is not in the cards," as Rob Kirby notes for Financial Sense.


     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 6:18 PM ET #135

    Looks like it's time to cover these shorts put down late last August:
     
    C (in money)
    COF (barely in money)
    CTX (barely in money)
    SPY ("still" out of money)
     
    Current Longs:
     
    FSLR
    SYY
    GTLS
    CRDC
     
    Ain't going to get ram-rodded again when financial bail-out packages are announced this coming week.  Going to cover my sorry f--ing goddamn ass, so that gdmf-ing Bernanke and his banking cronies don't shove a 4ft wide pipe up inside it.  The way the idiots reacted to the rate cut last Sep 18 told me all I needed to know........unless you got inside info and about several billions dollars in assets to ride out the storm, shorting the US market ain't worth it....at least not when you're a small-time sheet-head like I am.
     
    The good news is the solars actually went down a couple of points today.
     
    Have a good w-end, everyone. 
    Reply
    Looks like it's time to cover these shorts put down late last August:
     
    C (in money)
    COF (barely in money)
    CTX (barely in money)
    SPY ("still" out of money)
     
    Current Longs:
     
    FSLR
    SYY
    GTLS
    CRDC
     
    Ain't going to get ram-rodded again when financial bail-out packages are announced this coming week.  Going to cover my sorry f--ing goddamn ass, so that gdmf-ing Bernanke and his banking cronies don't shove a 4ft wide pipe up inside it.  The way the idiots reacted to the rate cut last Sep 18 told me all I needed to know........unless you got inside info and about several billions dollars in assets to ride out the storm, shorting the US market ain't worth it....at least not when you're a small-time sheet-head like I am.
     
    The good news is the solars actually went down a couple of points today.
     
    Have a good w-end, everyone. 
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 6:21 PM ET #136

    SET THIS IN STONE:
     
    There WILL be bailout packages for several financials this coming week.
    Reply
    SET THIS IN STONE:
     
    There WILL be bailout packages for several financials this coming week.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 7:06 PM ET #137

    It doesnt seem to matter if there is a bail out or not..

    As Vermeer mentioned and I have been b!tching about for a long time, these issues go deeper than just some alt-a mortgages.

    The federal reserve is selling us down the river to prop the economy and that is 100 times worse than mortgage defaults..


    Reply
    It doesnt seem to matter if there is a bail out or not..

    As Vermeer mentioned and I have been b!tching about for a long time, these issues go deeper than just some alt-a mortgages.

    The federal reserve is selling us down the river to prop the economy and that is 100 times worse than mortgage defaults..


     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 7:31 PM ET #138

    Yeah it does matter, WSC.
     
    When bailout packages are announced this coming week, I can GUARANTEE you that the prices of CTX, C, COF, and SPY will soar throught the roof and put me OUT OF THE MONEY in a blink of an eye.
     
    So yeah it does matter.
     
    BTW, I do agree about long-term implications of the Fed's printing money, but you know as well as I that the manipulators don't give a damn....all they care about is the quick buck, and hell no am I going to wait around for the next leg down.
    Reply
    Yeah it does matter, WSC.
     
    When bailout packages are announced this coming week, I can GUARANTEE you that the prices of CTX, C, COF, and SPY will soar throught the roof and put me OUT OF THE MONEY in a blink of an eye.
     
    So yeah it does matter.
     
    BTW, I do agree about long-term implications of the Fed's printing money, but you know as well as I that the manipulators don't give a damn....all they care about is the quick buck, and hell no am I going to wait around for the next leg down.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 7:49 PM ET #139

    claycourt,

    Longer term to me it doesnt matter.

    The state of our economy isnt going to be band-aid fixed with some interest rate cut or even if the government stepped in to a few mortage holders.

    In the short term yeah it could pop stocks, but look what happened to the builders, mortgage lenders and financial firms..pop and slump and implosion.

    I guess a massive bailout of enormous proportions or the FED dropping rates a ton might help, but the problems I see supercede the lending industry..maybe it never happens but when you fund the economy by artificially propping foreign demand, that cannot last long and it COULD throw the world into a large recession when it ends.

    Anyone hear that clunk on CNBC mentioning that firms are earning less and less and less domestically? Well I wonder why the hell that is..it surely isnt because our products or prices are lower, it is that our CURRENCY is in the sh!tter and we are selling our assets to support our faltering economy.

    Gee I wonder who has been saying that for quite some time..


    Reply
    claycourt,

    Longer term to me it doesnt matter.

    The state of our economy isnt going to be band-aid fixed with some interest rate cut or even if the government stepped in to a few mortage holders.

    In the short term yeah it could pop stocks, but look what happened to the builders, mortgage lenders and financial firms..pop and slump and implosion.

    I guess a massive bailout of enormous proportions or the FED dropping rates a ton might help, but the problems I see supercede the lending industry..maybe it never happens but when you fund the economy by artificially propping foreign demand, that cannot last long and it COULD throw the world into a large recession when it ends.

    Anyone hear that clunk on CNBC mentioning that firms are earning less and less and less domestically? Well I wonder why the hell that is..it surely isnt because our products or prices are lower, it is that our CURRENCY is in the sh!tter and we are selling our assets to support our faltering economy.

    Gee I wonder who has been saying that for quite some time..


     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 8:03 PM ET #140

    WSC-
     
    I opened these shorts (SPY, CTX, C, and COF) back in late August.
     
    Let me tell you the sheer terror and horror I experienced on Sep 18 when people just panic bought stuff hand over fist, and I watched my balance come damn close to putting my sorry ass on the margin call list.  And as you know, there was no way to justify all the euphoria that day.  Well, not only was Sep 18 a truly horrible day, but the goddamn euphoria lasted 5 weeks until the Thursday reversal 8 days ago.
     
    You also know how brutal manipulators can be on shorts, so hell f--ing know am I missing this chance to bail out of these shorts, and actually have a few pennies profit to show for the brutal experience.  I earned every goddamn penny, too, cause it was horrible to watch what happened on Sep 18 and the next weeks go come when shit companies like LEH reported "better than expected" earnings, and shorts got terrorized.
     
    I can see the same type of bullshit occurring next week during bailout package announcement season.  And you know damn well that there will be more than 1 bailout package announced this coming week.
     
    The BKX for the next week will end up being a damn good trade for a few days.
     
    No, man, I hate CNBC, just like I hate ESPN.  Never watch either with the sound up, or almost never.  CNBC is nothing but a bunch of cheerleading buffoons-----just like ESPN.  The last time I listened to CNBC was to hear the Maria Bartiroma interview of that goddamn sheet-head from CFC a few months ago....it was totally rated XXXXXX all the ass-kissing that went on........sickening.
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    I opened these shorts (SPY, CTX, C, and COF) back in late August.
     
    Let me tell you the sheer terror and horror I experienced on Sep 18 when people just panic bought stuff hand over fist, and I watched my balance come damn close to putting my sorry ass on the margin call list.  And as you know, there was no way to justify all the euphoria that day.  Well, not only was Sep 18 a truly horrible day, but the goddamn euphoria lasted 5 weeks until the Thursday reversal 8 days ago.
     
    You also know how brutal manipulators can be on shorts, so hell f--ing know am I missing this chance to bail out of these shorts, and actually have a few pennies profit to show for the brutal experience.  I earned every goddamn penny, too, cause it was horrible to watch what happened on Sep 18 and the next weeks go come when shit companies like LEH reported "better than expected" earnings, and shorts got terrorized.
     
    I can see the same type of bullshit occurring next week during bailout package announcement season.  And you know damn well that there will be more than 1 bailout package announced this coming week.
     
    The BKX for the next week will end up being a damn good trade for a few days.
     
    No, man, I hate CNBC, just like I hate ESPN.  Never watch either with the sound up, or almost never.  CNBC is nothing but a bunch of cheerleading buffoons-----just like ESPN.  The last time I listened to CNBC was to hear the Maria Bartiroma interview of that goddamn sheet-head from CFC a few months ago....it was totally rated XXXXXX all the ass-kissing that went on........sickening.
     
    Vermeer
    Vermeer
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    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 2910
    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 8:15 PM ET #141


     Unless I am too tired to get it, I think you two both agree that the Fed's policy of debasing the currency does have negative long term  consequences. And the inflation that it will produce will ultimately cost the public vastly more than the mortgage problem would. I think we agree on this, but like I say I am tired (not due to today's market gyrations).
     
     Perhaps we should start a new thread now that this has reached +100 posts? By the way, I really enjoy these analyses...I really have benefited from reading all the varied points made here over the weeks.

     Where are we headed from here?

     
     
    Reply

     Unless I am too tired to get it, I think you two both agree that the Fed's policy of debasing the currency does have negative long term  consequences. And the inflation that it will produce will ultimately cost the public vastly more than the mortgage problem would. I think we agree on this, but like I say I am tired (not due to today's market gyrations).
     
     Perhaps we should start a new thread now that this has reached +100 posts? By the way, I really enjoy these analyses...I really have benefited from reading all the varied points made here over the weeks.

     Where are we headed from here?

     
     
     
     
    JEFFMARKETCAP
    JEFFMARKETCAP
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2002
    Posts: 56322
    Posted: Oct. 19, 2007 - 8:28 PM ET #142

    I liquidated all my positions at about 2 hrs before the bell.   NO reason to own anything now.  Conditions are terrible.  No good news.  No reason to own anything
    Reply
    I liquidated all my positions at about 2 hrs before the bell.   NO reason to own anything now.  Conditions are terrible.  No good news.  No reason to own anything
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