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October Stock Talk III

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #76
Vermeer,

Thanks for the link..I couldnt find a scorecard link on the site..I read about 5 of his "blog" messages..

Playing DITM options is a nice way to still use leverage but lower risk.

As for GOOG, these options are STILL priced too high..going even 10 out of the money still costs 10 a contract..maybe tomorrow when they cut the premiums we should discuss it.

Notice how the MMs are trimming the juice on FSLR and DRYS today..

Kerspat there goes the DOW
 
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Posted: #77
That score card is strange..I see wins but what about losses? Plus it would be nice to see what the contract is trading at, rather than just the GTC sell order (which might or might not be filled) and the average purchase price.

One other comment..the guy is doing great but I have to say I looked at a few of his plays and I did not agree with them..I dont agree with all of his thinking for entering a position, say like the TXN trade today..I like seeing a stock buyback, but is this all cash or is it using debt, and more than the buyback, how is the stock acting technically, how is business?

Pretty much ANY reasonable call strategy works in bull markets, but let us see if he is another Blogett longer term if the market isnt hitting new highs every week...


 
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Posted: #78

 WSC He has lost on ONE trade (see the one he blew on BAC, dropped @11,000 bones on it.) Other than that, he is, no lie, posting each of those plays and hitting each one.But likeyou say, his strategy defintely works in a bull market, but yet to be seen in a bear.
 When queried regarding that fact, he says that the stocks he chooses to pick are ones that the market has inaccurately beaten the hell out of, and that, given enough time (several months) they will eventually be priced according to their fundamental value.So far, he has been proven right with the one exception of trying to hold onto BAC during the absolute worst of the meltdown (so far).
 

 
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Posted: #79
TIMBERRRRRR

If anything this gives the chance to buy some Naz stocks like FSLR who seem to be holding quite well..


 
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Posted: #80
Vermeer,

The REAL test to ANY trader isnt during the good times, its when the bear or bull is on your back and you have to make decisions..sell decisions, especially for a loss to protect your investment.

I wonder if he uses any kind of stop mentality..

A week or two of a bad market and he will be sweating bullets.

I havent seen an exit strategy from him yet, and doubling down is a REALLY bad idea investing wise.

He is going deep in which helps and lowers the risk, but I scratch my head at some of his reasoning and his lack of stop usage..
 
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Posted: #81
I have used his in play selections as a starting point to evaluate possible call buys.( I considered and dropped luckily, so far the PDS play.) I have missed out on plenty, having only made about 12 trades, and not buying ten contracts per trade like he does. But I am 11/12...and am only in the Comcast one at the moment.I have looked most closely at the Legg Mason trade of the ones listed, that is all at the moment.
 
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Posted: #82

 I suppose the market is reacting to Turkish invasion decision...or else the continuing realization the meltdown in housing is not going to stop anytime soon.Off to play some tennis to clear my mind.
 
 I am going to look and see what stocks I can pick up on sale if it is a war plunge:they usually are buying opps, not selling ones.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
I've been watching NOEC for weeks and it seems volume has dried up.  Traders probably moved on the to next China stock.
 
Bailed on INTC this morning with a couple extra dollars in my pocket.  Probably still a good long-term hold on any pullbacks IMO.  But you could almost sense this market seemed top-heavy this morning.
 
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Posted: #84
INTC holding in nicely, it wont drop much today, good trade for you Grid.

Enjoy the tennis..I should get out more, the weather in PHX is awesome..(notice I didnt start a thread about it..)



 
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Posted: #85
MCD seems to be doing things right..

On my trip to Disneyland last week I ate there twice, they have the Angus burgers and they were pretty darn good..that and the chicken selects and that ice coffee have been great decisions.

That is what separates MCD from Burger King and Hardees, they are thinking of product lines and not just gimicks on existing products (BK does that quite often)..

But I have to think their product expansion slows and Q over Q and Y over Y numbers are going to be tougher to beat. I dont like MCD at these prices.

Oh and they need some help with the ice coffee..ice needs to be crushed which they have cubed and it needs to be sweeter in general..which it is not.  
 
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Posted: #86
Vermeer,

Post that again, it skewed the thread....
 
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Posted: #87
Well the DOW drug the NAZ into negative territory..


 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
Curious if anyone here is holding ETFC and their thoughts ahead of earnings tonight.  Stock has been tanking the last several minutes and seems like all the possible bad news is priced in.  Looking through the financials right now, but it appears the stock is approaching (perceived) book value.  I don't own but have it on my watchlist.
 
Legend
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Posted: #89
What the hell happened to the market today?  Wall Street seems very uneasy.  Next couple days might be tough.  Maybe 13,500 on the Dow.
 
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Posted: #90
Depeche,

I think Vermeer floated a possible idea..I havent looked at the why, but the DOW looks sick for sure today.

Grid, Etrade is exiting the mortgage biz if I recall reading a while back and that will probably effect this Q earnings and it gives them a prime reason to empty the closet if you ask me.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #91

WSC,

E-Trade is exiting the wholesale mortgage business.  Earnings estimates have been cut this qtr to $0.10/share.  Actually, I think if they do come clean, it would be positive for the stock.  Watching this one closely tonight.

 
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Posted: #92
FSLR and SPWR "sort of" reversed.
 
Oh man oh man do I pray for some HUGE profit taking the next 2 days, and then, "Mr Manipulators," please oh please take a few days off from terrrorizing shorts so we the minnows can eek back in for another ride up the ladder.
 
Thanks.
 
 
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Posted: #93
Grid-
 
Who is that in the avatar, man.
 
Kristoferson?
 
Cheers
 
Prospect
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Posted: #94
Nope, Will Ferrell on SNL.  I still get a chuckle from the skit.
 
 
I got a fever...and the only prescription...is MORE COWBELL!!!
 
 
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Posted: #95
I gotta Fever!!! And teh only prescription is....more cowbell!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LMAO
 
Veteran
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Posted: #96
wow... 100 posts in three days.  that is some serious forum action
 
Veteran
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Posted: #97
I love that skit, crack up at Walken all the time...

Jean-Marie Eveillard.
Eveillard is a legendary value investor. Between 1979 and 2005, his First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX) showed investors an average annual return of 16%.
These returns alone are enough to place the France-born Eveillard in a rare class of investors. However, it's Eveillard's cautious nature that truly distinguishes him from his peers. From 1979 to 2005, his fund only lost money in two years: 1.3% in 1990 and 0.3% in 1998.
Even more incredible, Eveillard produced gains of 10% a year in 2000, 2001, and 2002, all years in which the market tanked. Simply put, this is a guy who doesn't lose money.
 
Over 20% of Eveillard's equity portfolio is in consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks.
An estimated $50 billion worth of U.S. mortgages will reset to higher interest rates this month alone. Many of these will foreclose as monthly mortgage payments jump hundreds of dollars. According to the Homeownership Preservation Foundation (HPF), we're up to one foreclosure for every 704 households in the U.S.

He owns:MCD $318 million
            ISCA (International Speedway) 180 million
            BUD    109 million

  Basically: burgers, Bud, and racing.Living where I do for now, I can tell you, it seems a safe bet.

 
Legend
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Posted: #98
Dammit. Sub prime is back.  Market will fall hard now.  As I said about a month ago my buddy told me WM had huge exposure to subprime and they are getting creamed pre market after earnings realease.
I forgot to buy some puts on WM.  Was gonna do it ahead of earnings but work has been so damm busy I forgot. Oh well. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #99
I bought some calls on CBST today.   Chart and technical indicators look good on this stock.  Also bought some calls on BCSI.  
 
 
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Posted: #100
BAC and the subprime drumbeat will continue on throughout the end of the year and beyond.

  Nothing has caused me to change my thoughts from the spring and summer: USD down, oil up, gold up, inflation up,housing down, employment down, Christmas very weak (look out retailers), and the credit card companies will clean up as Americans still borrow to finance their holiday season.

 I guess I am also one of those who does not see a way of avoiding a recession, or something that might as well be a recession.And if the Fed continues to cut, down goes the dollar even more...




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