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November Stock Talk VII

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #26
vermeer - C is paying 11% yield on the stake bought by Abu Dhabi yet they are loaning out money at a lower rate

seems like a healthy business wouldnt do a reverse carry trade...but what do i know

you know who makes money in times like this? Altria, Proctor and Gamble, Colgate Palmolive...consumer staples. Aetna, Medco, etc HMO companies make money...not big pharm but HMOs
 
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Posted: #27
Thanks KOAJ, and of course gold should climb as well...the above stocks mentioned are covered, at least for me, by BRKB.And it was up 2% yesterday...old WB still on his game as usual.
 
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Posted: #28

PS did not know the terms of the Abu investment in C...yet, the question remains, how low can C go before it becomes a buy, if ever? Not that I am in the mood to rush out and buy anything, but....

 
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Posted: #29
C will probably hit 50 at some point but do you feel like dealing with pain for the next 2-3 years?

i dont...at least in a money market your money grows

do you trust C will continue to pay its dividend? grow the business
 
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Posted: #30

I do generally look at 5-10 year frames for certain selections, so I guess I do not mind it. But you are right:why take on the worries? No doubt there are better options with fewer unkowns and equal prospects.

 
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Posted: #31
Wow, did everyone go into hibernation with the rest of the bears?
 
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Posted: #32
Grid-
 
Just not willing to buy anything until there is total capitulation.....people jumping out of windows.
 
Too late to jump on the short train....I fckuing blew it a month ago bailing out of shorts in C, CTX, SPY, and COF.  The gains I made were fckuing miniscule, but I was worried about bailouts and crap like that.
 
I got long US dollar 2 weeks ago, to go with some other longs:
 
CRDC
SPWR
MSFT
GTLS
 
I am just waiting for capitulation or a bear trap sucker's rally that lasts a week or so.....then I'll look to get short the SPY.
 
Just nothing to do, man.
 
But hey, if peeps want to capitualte today and jump out of windows, then I would be elated to buy some crap on the cheap.
 
Got to see total panic....total fear.....literally, people jumping out of windows......then you buy low.  Sad, but that's the way this hideous game of liar's poker works......you got to come in with cash when everyone is terrified and selling everything.
 
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Posted: #33

  Naw...update to those following the gambling (errr investing) career of "Nails" Dykstra: he took a $42,000 loss on HSY options, knocking him down to +$140,000 for the year.He is writing from the south of France today, which is a fine place to lessen the blow!!!

  People grasping at comments by Fed members to give reason to ignore the continuing bad news from the financials.

  I am looking to sell into any strength, locking in decent yearly gains. The USD remains fragile, the price of gold and oil to me remain on the upward track medium to long term.



 

 
 
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Posted: #34
I agree, Vermeer.  If there is an emergency rate cut, I'd use it to sell and lock in gains before they're gone.
 
I'd also use all the hype and hoopla to get short the SPY.
 
Now I'm not willing to get short SPY for the long haul, but I'd do the "trade" thing and set a very conservative profit target....and when it hits, I'd close.
 
The most vicious upswings period in stock markets are bear market short covering sucker rally traps.....you see them all the time in bear markets, and they're so powerful that peeps swear up and down that a substantial rally is begininng...........WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #35

  I think so too CC...by the way, I sold Nails a bit short, he stands at plus $149,000 for the year.the HSY hit was his biggest loss of the year, and second losing trade of the year.

  He is recommending JP Morgan...sorry can't go down the financial path at this time. I do remain tempted by C, but, in the final analysis, I am not sure I need the queasiness of the roller coaster ride it will remain on.

 

 
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Posted: #36
Yeah, he is a good guy. I told you, I think, the poker story, or no?  I liked him.....but that was back in the 80s.....20 years ago, so who knows how he is now?  But he was pretty goddarn intense back then. 
 
Options trading......can easily see that guy getting in to that full tilt.  An out and out true degenerate gambler brother!!!!!!!
 
I'd stay off C until there is capitulation.  I think FHN is better for the long haul.....but that long haul could take 5-10 years., so why even bother unless you're in your early 20s and can stick shares in an IRA?
 
I think you could "daytrade" financials, but going overnight that stuff would take inside info for anything substantial......long or short side.
 
Just a bad market, Vermeer, but if we can get a bear trap sucker's rally for a little while, I'm getting short SPY.
 
Game of attrition right now.....just got to hold on to cash and be ready for a capitulation day.
 
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Posted: #37

 Yup...your Nails story was a good one and I suspect he does everything full tilt, including, I bet, sampling the pleasures of the south of France, which are warm and wonderful, and that's just the wine and food part!

 I still think we are heading, full speed ahead, into the same condition that Jimmy Carter presided over:serious stagflation. We are going into recession right as inflation really takes hold over necessities and the USD sinks due to almost certain rate cuts from Ben and the boys.

  Now, the central banks of the Eurozone can try to beat the Fed at its own game and race to the bottom, but I think they lose that too. But their economies are going to take a hit from all of this as well.


 
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Posted: #38
Not a pretty picture coming up.  No sir.
 
Am watching the spike in C and am thinking of maybe trying a day-trade on the bear side.  It has spiked straight up from 29 a few days ago, and I just have the bad feeling that someone is going to drop a bomb on the market at some point today.
 
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Posted: #39
A lot easier to short the SPY, I think, for maybe a day trade.
 
Risen 4 points in a sucker rally spike in less than a day.
 
I smell...........KABOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #40
Sckus, man, want to gamble, but don't want to lose.  The soccer lines are hideous.
 
 
 
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Posted: #41
Yep, going to do it.
 
Opened a 300 block SPY "short" at 145.50.  Will look to squeeze something out of this and get the gambling yaaa-yaaas out of me for the day.
 
It's live now.
 
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Posted: #42
Currently asking 145.63......against me so far.  Need this to crack.
 
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Posted: #43
Holy geez.....going the other way now asking 145.89.  Didn't see that one.
 
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Posted: #44
Hang in there. this rally defies all logic to me. Not that logic prevails in human affairs (if it did the black box boys would not have created the current disaster).

 I look, re-look, and look a third time, and see:a serious recession, compounded with serious inflation.Throw in a likely Demcoratic tax and spend admin, you have the perfect storm for the good ole days of 14% prime rates, and high unemployment.
 
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Posted: #45
Yeah, man, Vermeer, we're fckued either way regarding the election.
 
Rudy-----just another term like the present disgrace.
Hillary-----stagflation running amok.
 
Either way, we're screwed.
 
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Posted: #46
Buy up guns, ammo, land to grow your own food, wood to heat, and make your own clothes.
 
Then just bunker down for about 5 years or so and see if the Mayans are right about 2012.
 
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Posted: #47
CC,

I think you are early but you will be right.

I peeled out of my SPWR calls today, keeping my DRYS March options as I think the stock got HAMMERED and is still undervalued..

I was quite pleased to wake up and see SPWR up 11 today..I needed that for sure.
 
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Posted: #48
Yeah, WSC.  SPWR up on MS news.  Who knows what could happen?  I hope it goes to 678.
 
Am long at 129ish, so I need it to move in a short squeeze.
 
Need about 324 more "deals" to get announced.
 
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Posted: #49
Good luck on DRYS, WSC.  What I thought was a capitulation day back a few weeks ago......I was WRONG AGAIN!
 
Let's face it, we need people jumping out of windows.  Until that happens (outside some sort of gambling/trading short term venture), there just is zero point zero desire to get or be long anything except cash.
 
 
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Posted: #50
CC,

Yeah that was definately why, but did you see yesterday? Good news about an install for HP and the sucker rallied early and tanked hard..over a 10 pt reversal. Day before that when the market reversed the stock did another 10 pt reversal.

If they finish the market strong I am sure SPWR might head towards 120 today..but I have sat on gains on these options like THREE times and finally I had to take some small gains..
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