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November Stock Talk

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Posts: 114

Vermeer

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Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:29 AM ET #76

Did not mean to talk you out of that trade.

Given C's news, and what we both expect as far as continuing writedowns, I think it could get driven down (as it should). I dunno, but you have to do what you feel comfortable with in terms of risk CC...

I don't like the big picture for them, but they are connected, and connections can save your ass when objective conditions wouldn't.

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:30 AM ET #77

There's got to be some sort of FINANCIAL BAILOUT PACKAGE about to come to the rescue and save these iceholes who should pretty much all be left to die.

KOAJ

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Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:32 AM ET #78

the gov of NY is Eliot Spitzer who made his name going after brokerage firms after the dot.com meltdown...if you dont think Cuomo is of the same mold or this is driven by Spitzer through his AG, you might be wrong

NEW YORK (AP) -- New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is scheduled to unveil what his office called "a major development in his ongoing investigation of the mortgage industry" at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday.

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:33 AM ET #79

I know, Vermeer.

Hell, with no BAILOUTS, we'd have all shorted CFC back in July and covered at 1.

Only thing keeping CFC afloat is the coming BAILOUT and the shorts getting squeezed.

There is no institution on the planet buying hundreds of thousands of CFC shares today. No one.....they couldn't explain it to their fund-holders.

KOAJ

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Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:36 AM ET #80

CCL - Bill Miller at Legg is up to his eyeballs in housing/mortgage stocks...he is one of the very few i see adding new positions at these various companies...

Vermeer

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Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:39 AM ET #81

CFC 14 and change...may it head south if yer still in the trade!

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:41 AM ET #82

Well, I pussed. Just too worried about a CFC BAILOUT PACKAGE to hang in there.

Sold short at 15.64, covered at 14.14 a few minutes ago. Can't bitch about 1.5 points in less than 24 hours, of which gd Uncle Sam will take 28%.....farkin icehole and his unwinnable, wasteful war in Mid East!!!!

Since I'm no longer short, I would advise the trader guys on this board to sell it short and look to cover at 12ish.

How do I know it's going lower? 'Cause I covered my short position!!!!

Vermeer

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Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:42 AM ET #83

Market getting smoked early and often...down @200 bones for now...

KOAJ

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Posts: 66698

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:43 AM ET #84

clay court - cant go poor taking profits. just look for the next opp

now may be a good day to get long some great tech names on sale, this subprime shit doesnt effect them (MSFT, INTC, DELL, CSCO...even PTEC)

Bill Groos nov outlook is out. Click

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:44 AM ET #85

Thanks guys for the help. I'm just not much of a trader......just don't have the balls to really hang in there on CFC and see it go down.......just too worried about BAILOUT PACKAGES.

Koaj-

So Legg Mason is buying up these companies???? I didn't know any institutions were in there doing real buying. Takes balls.....brass ones.

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:44 AM ET #86

Hey, for a guy who doesn't like to trade, you do get in some nice trades!! 1.5 is 24 hrs is sweet to me.

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:50 AM ET #87

The problem shorting CFC is just that......the HUGE short position already existing.

Koaj, I agree with you that there is no BAILOUT PACKAGE that can significantly alter the fundamentals of a no good enterprise like CFC. But in today's "do it yesterday" world, no one cares. Any type of BAILOUT PACKAGE, or just the mention of a potential one, would send the shorts scurrying like little mice, and CFC going straight up in a vertical spike at light speed. I just can't deal with that happening.

Sure as hell seems like your Jets +3.5 are BIG-TIME right side this Sunday vs Washington Snyders.

Cheers

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:53 AM ET #88

Thanks Vermeer. Appreciate it. It's the gambler in me coming out.

What we need to see is the solars coming in hard for a few days....then I am all about getting long them for a trade. Why? 'Cause of the HUGE SHORT positions in them. For me, it's best to trade long against the shorts.

KOAJ

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Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:53 AM ET #89

Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Thanks guys for the help. I'm just not much of a trader......just don't have the balls to really hang in there on CFC and see it go down.......just too worried about BAILOUT PACKAGES.

Koaj-

So Legg Mason is buying up these companies???? I didn't know any institutions were in there doing real buying. Takes balls.....brass ones.

i dont have all of legg's recent filings...well i do but i dont have the time to look through

but check SPF - cali home builder...top of my list to go under along with HOV and BZH

Lone Pine dumped everythign in June
ValueAct dumped 2/3 in mid sept "pre-offering tank"

Legg owns 10%+ as of 9/10, also pre offering tank
Citadel owns 5%

legg and citadel are really the only firms i see acting like vultures...i guess if you have an infinite bankroll you can wait out anything

Vermeer

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Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:55 AM ET #90

Bill Miller has brass balls the size of cocoanuts, and he is damn good from everything I have ever read...nice string of beating the market returns, etc etc etc...damn good...

Nice link KOAJ...good read...

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 9:58 AM ET #91

I'll look at SPF. Thanks. Am really only familiar with a few ticker symbols and how they move:

CFC

COF

C
CTX

SPY

FSLR

SPWR

FCEL

ESLR

CRDC

GTLS

SYY

CSCO

That's really all I follow. Hate to say it, but I know nothing about techs aside from CSCO.

claycourtlesson

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Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:05 AM ET #92

Not familiar with it at all (as far as how it moves), but from only a chart perspective, any pullback in MSFT makes a long trade almost mandatory......looks as good technically as possible.

Vermeer

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Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:12 AM ET #93

Damn we shoulda shorted CROX !!! -21 $$ Damn, people here saw it, and I did...nada.

KOAJ

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:15 AM ET #94

clay court - as far as techs...just find super large cap companies who do a lot of overseas/intl work...also they should be business focused or more business than consumer

csco, orcl, hwp, msft, intc....

they are all near flat today on whats an awful day for the rest of the market

also, my old baby AET seems to be unaffected by any of this...i had that long at 36 a year ago...sold at 51 a few months back but its a monster

Vermeer

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Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:15 AM ET #95

MSFT has loads of cash, fundamentals are great and they had a had/have a huge, huge buyback..

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:19 AM ET #96

Maddening, Vermeer.

MSFT looks great as a long trade if this sell-off gets some legs. Got to figure the heavy money will get all over them on any sort of pull-back.

claycourtlesson

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Posts: 14917

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:26 AM ET #97

Yeah, Koaj, makes sense to look at the old "b2b" ends of the tech sector.

Can't trust the consumer with a coming recession, skyrocketing gas, and their homes' value that just got sawed down to size.

wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:45 AM ET #98

Geez this time difference is a KILLER..

The opening 15 minutes on DRYS was the low, now the stock 8 pts higher from the open..damn it.

Nice trade claycourt...geez that is how to do it. Take that money, pay the taxes and be happy!

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 10:58 AM ET #99

GOOG unperturbed as well...up $13.53 from the $700 buy in.

I think this is overbought by the way, but I think it will saty overbought up to $750 or $800...

wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Nov. 1, 2007 - 11:05 AM ET #100

Vermeer,

Yeah if I had GOOG I wouldnt be selling.

Too much momentum behind it.

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