I believe we might have just seen the top of the countertrend rally from the July lows and the next leg lower should be ready to begin. Both the Comp and the Rut I feel are well over extended to the upside. They have shown the most strenght so they might continue to lag the other major averages if we roll over again.
Where's everybody's head at. You feeling bullish or bearish?
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I believe we might have just seen the top of the countertrend rally from the July lows and the next leg lower should be ready to begin. Both the Comp and the Rut I feel are well over extended to the upside. They have shown the most strenght so they might continue to lag the other major averages if we roll over again.
Where's everybody's head at. You feeling bullish or bearish?
Yep I/we have learned that summer trading doesnt mean much on its own barring an event to drive the trading..I would say this summer had an event with the financial issues but I wont guess what happens after Labor Day because without all the market participants back and active it is impossible to forecast what will happen.
CC,
Yep I/we have learned that summer trading doesnt mean much on its own barring an event to drive the trading..I would say this summer had an event with the financial issues but I wont guess what happens after Labor Day because without all the market participants back and active it is impossible to forecast what will happen.
I think all trades are going to revolve around oil, near term. Personally, I see oil trading up from this level, and markets down. Traders tried to bring it down Friday with OE, but couldn't get it done, so once they gave up, back up it went. Weather in the gulf could be another excuss for traders to run it up again this week.
I've been trading between/among UYG and SKF. I went into the weekend hedged, holding both at $19.88 and $121.00. I've been working very hard at getting that SKF position down from my high of $136.75.
Anyway, I'm watching oil as a catalyst, but unless we see a move there, the markets are going to be boring.
I think all trades are going to revolve around oil, near term. Personally, I see oil trading up from this level, and markets down. Traders tried to bring it down Friday with OE, but couldn't get it done, so once they gave up, back up it went. Weather in the gulf could be another excuss for traders to run it up again this week.
I've been trading between/among UYG and SKF. I went into the weekend hedged, holding both at $19.88 and $121.00. I've been working very hard at getting that SKF position down from my high of $136.75.
Anyway, I'm watching oil as a catalyst, but unless we see a move there, the markets are going to be boring.
Yeah, Grid, you are spot on. Oil is going to determine the overall broad market's direction the next few weeks.
It'll take another month or so before the financials start quarterly confessions, and "I hope" Scholar Ben and his pooch Paulson are smart enough to let the institutions fail and burn. If one more gd bailout package gets shoved down my throat and out my a--- (when my 2010 taxes fall due, basically), then I think it may be time to really get drastic and end this charade. More and more I think of these farking bailout packages, the more and more I get un-hinged.
I think a lot of oil traders were terrified of being short oil going in to the weekend with hurricanes, Israel vs Iran, Georgia vs Russia, what the hell could happen at any second in Beijing, and the fact that oil is so technically oversold now. Long story short------there was a crapload of short covering in oil pits yesterday, and had it not been Friday, there's a chance oil could've been sent below 100 a barrel.....sentiment was that negative.
Anyway, who in the hell knows what will happen with oil on Monday morning and so on?
What I do know for a 100% stone cold fact is this.......oil is in along term bull market right now, right along with most other commodities (being driven by the soaring cost of transportation). Certainly the sorry leadership in the USA has not even come close to addressing this problem with alternative car engines, an overhaul of the rail system, and a real program of off-shore drilling for natural gas.
Sick, sad, sorry a.... leadership in this country.
Yeah, Grid, you are spot on. Oil is going to determine the overall broad market's direction the next few weeks.
It'll take another month or so before the financials start quarterly confessions, and "I hope" Scholar Ben and his pooch Paulson are smart enough to let the institutions fail and burn. If one more gd bailout package gets shoved down my throat and out my a--- (when my 2010 taxes fall due, basically), then I think it may be time to really get drastic and end this charade. More and more I think of these farking bailout packages, the more and more I get un-hinged.
I think a lot of oil traders were terrified of being short oil going in to the weekend with hurricanes, Israel vs Iran, Georgia vs Russia, what the hell could happen at any second in Beijing, and the fact that oil is so technically oversold now. Long story short------there was a crapload of short covering in oil pits yesterday, and had it not been Friday, there's a chance oil could've been sent below 100 a barrel.....sentiment was that negative.
Anyway, who in the hell knows what will happen with oil on Monday morning and so on?
What I do know for a 100% stone cold fact is this.......oil is in along term bull market right now, right along with most other commodities (being driven by the soaring cost of transportation). Certainly the sorry leadership in the USA has not even come close to addressing this problem with alternative car engines, an overhaul of the rail system, and a real program of off-shore drilling for natural gas.
Sick, sad, sorry a.... leadership in this country.
It gets real tricky here I am guessing that the market makes a run back to below 11000 by say the first 2 weeks of Sept holds and then takes out the last recovery high by the election somewhere north of the 12000 to 12300 range. The oil market should be the inverse of the market, I think it rallies to 130 to 133 then retests the lows it is making now by the election. Good luck trading this. Its going to be a real cramer.
It gets real tricky here I am guessing that the market makes a run back to below 11000 by say the first 2 weeks of Sept holds and then takes out the last recovery high by the election somewhere north of the 12000 to 12300 range. The oil market should be the inverse of the market, I think it rallies to 130 to 133 then retests the lows it is making now by the election. Good luck trading this. Its going to be a real cramer.
WSC
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