netflix short

Question

i just put on a 250 share short of netflix. limit price 230 hit this morning.

this i am looking at as a 6-12 month timeframe. i think they will quickly drop after their next earnings release and probably some before. '

there is nothing good about their business model. Too much competition and they will HAVE TO raise prices to keep margins where they are with dramatically rising content costs, and once they do that, they will lose 25-50% of their subscriber base I am guessing, i.e. last year when they announced a price increase. I'm quickly down over 1k on this trade but that makes no difference, i am looking to cover this around $100 share in next year

if you look to do this, be careful and make your own decisions

CraigBuchanan · Answer

i just put on a 250 share short of netflix. limit price 230 hit this morning.

this i am looking at as a 6-12 month timeframe. i think they will quickly drop after their next earnings release and probably some before. '

there is nothing good about their business model. Too much competition and they will HAVE TO raise prices to keep margins where they are with dramatically rising content costs, and once they do that, they will lose 25-50% of their subscriber base I am guessing, i.e. last year when they announced a price increase. I'm quickly down over 1k on this trade but that makes no difference, i am looking to cover this around $100 share in next year

if you look to do this, be careful and make your own decisions

hotdamn85 · Answer

looks like a solid play.

PASA818 · Answer

6 to 12 months to short NFLX is a bit too long.  Right now it look like it&#x27;s going long and not short. I might be wrong, but that&#x27;s what I see right now.

CraigBuchanan · Answer

it obviously does have momentum. im just trying to build a position, if it goes up, i'll dollar-cost average just like i would any stock. this will drop over 50% i have no doubt about it, whether its on a fundamental or technical breakdown, or both.

we shall see, i may need some of that luck

SportsMavin · Answer

The methodology is there. All you need is logical investors with methodology to pick that up

hotdamn85 · Answer

sidenote:im seeing a trend in kids age 18-23 that are starting to figure out that this smartphone thing is bad for them.which is kind of shocking.one kid told me "i have a smart phone but i dont use it much" another said "my bf does not have a smartphone and wont ever get one"i think people are starting to figure it out that being hooked to a device 24/7/365 is bad for them.nokia up considerably last 7 days.i think netflix will go lower if this economy rebounds. however if the economies in france/UK/Germany dip into "triple recession or double recession" then it will go up.france just announced 3rd recession in 4 years, meaning netflix will go up ^_^i think netflix is good during a recession.

DaBestEver24 · Answer

You r a genius! Nflx just jumped 10%

PASA818 · Answer

My guess was some what right.  I still think it&#x27;s a up trend and may see $300&#x27;s again.  But at this moment not sure what&#x27;s its doing.  Craigbuchanan, where did you get the news about NFLX not having a good business plan?

hotdamn85 · Answer

it went up becuz of europe recession... there u have it.

rr207 · Answer

this is all speculation. it looks like to me that everyone wants to stream videos. why would you guys try to short it?

hotdamn85 · Answer

short short short

hotdamn85 · Answer

i mean long long long

Michfan15 · Answer

OP was a few months early now could b a time to short membership only grew by 600,000 really not great compared to expectations

Guerilla04 · Answer

Subscription base is always a tough business model, especially one with growth and competition similar to Netflix. HBO Go, Amazon, Hulu and RedBox are already viable contenders for consumers. DirectTV, Comcast and DISH also offer similar features as far as streaming goes, as well as numerous reports Apple wants to throw their hat into the ring.

I agree, long term this stock cant continue at these levels. Subscription growth will decrease and level off, maybe even decline. Definitely a short candidate, though I think your timing was wrong.

InvestIdontChase · Answer

buy buy buy..netflix added max..maybe it will help

Michfan15 · Answer

you definitely missed the boat on buying now....the big boys (amzn, goog, etc.) are going to eventually get into streaming content and faze out nflx. Also you have big fights looming between cable providers and startups like aereo as well. I think netflix has hit its peak

netflix short

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