Market Runners

Tradervue summaries - that I do not know. Maybe I’ll run a poll and see, probably good data for us to have anyway for one reason or another. 

I’ve advocated for a 30 day trial, but been shot down. We actually had a basic analyzer version available to the public for a while, but some foreign IP entities started spamming it, and drove server costs through the roof  

I agree that 14 days might be hard to see an instant result, but there are probably a hand full of defined event specific plays that could be entered.  They might not be the key manipulated, acurred ones waiting to go up 150% but maybe ones that offer a 20-30% pop. I don’t know just a guess

However, I’m sure there will be 4-5 big runners that folks are currently in that will run next week, and That kind of serves as a testimonial as to what can be expected.

One of the bigger bankroll guys (500k+) had 3 big runners I think a 50% and 2-100%, as well as exiting 2-3 plays that were up 20-30% in a few weeks that he didn’t expect a run to happen yet.  

So when someone sees that, looks at the tickers in the model, they say “yea I can do that” 

The Slack community is very active, lots of charts and research discussed daily. 

Alerts/plays -  We do not provide plays of any kind. Just a powerful tool that can be used to make informed decisions.   Of course as charts are posted in the Slack, there is incredibly useful commentary often provided, and perhaps someone could use that as a clue. But never is it said “go play XXX” for a variety of reasons. 

An expected response would be “Wow, that chart looks like it’s being manipulated and has really flattened out in a channel right on EM1  It also appears they have an expected trial update coming on 11/4 in relation to a COVID treatment” 

that is a hypothetical scenario. But no indication to run to the window with a hand full of cash and buy, but simply here is what I see, make your own decision based on your research  

We do have an Alert channel that says a stock has dropped into an EM band. That is very helpful so someone doesn’t have to search charts constantly. It’s used more of a “maybe you want to check this out since it moved for some reason”

CYTK has dropped below EM2
EOLS has dropped below EM2
NTEC has dropped below EM1
TRPX has dropped below EM1
VKTX has dropped below EM2
IDRA has dropped below EM2
SVA has dropped below EM0
FUSN has dropped below EM2

that was a recent few alerts. Those definitely don’t mean play those, just an informative check out these charts maybe, see why they moved into the bands.   Sometimes they mean nothing and are just random movements because the stock is tracking a level perfectly and a 5cent move caused it to cross a line. 

I think I answered all your questions. 

Ok...

So if someone signs up are there explanatory guides to terminology or a quasi tutorial for someone to understand the process? I was a broker, am an active trader, I understand charting and moving averages, all of what you are saying but for someone to understand what the different terms mean relative to the other? Meaning EM0 and 1 and 2...from the charts Ive seen I think I get it that EM2 is the upper "zone" and EM0 is the lower zone...that is an area of confidence for entering a trade but is there anything else more technical in explanation with them on the site?

Are people in the community listing trade entries and exits with size or do people keep to themselves? The reason I ask is if you know that a certain stock is going to be played more from a growing group of traders that makes the entry and exit more competitive and difficult especially for a micro cap stock.

I did not know that TD (I guess Schwab now) had extended session limit order capability. I have an account there and will check it out. I always thought extended session orders were not GTC but had to be entered every session. If someone is out for a while and misses a sell or buy because they cannot have it GTC that is a big deal in my opinion. Plus if someone is focused on 1-2-3 positions but 4 and 5 if they have it trigger and they arent looking well that is a pain and a limitation.

Last question...is there a way for someone to join without giving their real personal info? Still following the rules and payment but without disclosing personal details?

I just started piecing together a starter pack. Some definitions of what is on the model, how to do some basic searches that provide more the the "bread and butter" charts. We do have a decent, though slightly dated YouTube library with most everything laid out.  I will be updating those videos soon too.

EM1 is cash value for the stock. So that's "safe entry."  In theory, owning something that's trading at its cash value is a pretty good deal.  EM0 is roughly 40% below EM1. So a stock at or below EM0 is quite a good deal, in theory.   EM2, 40% above EM1. 

Then you look at some historical plays that users have done which I've compiled an archive, I think that provides a good road map to at least to get started. 

I'd say for the most part, people let their positions be known. Entry and exit.  I mean its fantastic to hear that someone found a play and just hit it for 70% that wasn't anywhere close to being on your radar.  The model is just so, so diverse based on someone's risk tolerance. 

Extended hours trading really is a must. That's about the only thing maybe a recreational trader would have to get used to.    

From what I know, our credit card processor we use for transactions limits what we can do.  Of course the community can be joined with an anonymous  screen name,  but of course CC info would have to be accurate. 

On the other web address I was looking at some charts listed and it did not seem the bands were including cash burn...so if you are saying EM2, 1, 0 it seemed like most of the charts were a standard design/layout when if you are dealing with companies in a constant downtrend in cash value or enterprise value then your graph should represent that...meaning it should be downward sloping at all times. These micro biotechs are in burn state every single day, so it makes the metric difficult to extrapolate, the cash position is going to zero in every single one only to be recharged again, thus the E2,1,0 should be declining to represent that. Some of these companies burn their entire market cap every single year, so buying below E0 might not mean much of anything since it is downward sloping to infinity unless they turn the corner.

One other question...what do you think is driving pre-market action in these micro cap names, is that a way to put the ticker onto the list of most actives premarket and drum up interest to those kiddos at Robinhood etc? Unless there was some news release of course, if the action is happening with volume it has to be paid by someone to churn it up...I've always wondered where that originates in your opinion.

The model definitely calculates cash burn.  That is what leads to many of the Red FSTs, the company is about to run out of money and desperate. The stop lights in the upper left hand corner also depict short term financial health(most recent quarter at the top), as well as long term on the right row of lights. 

You are correct, ultimately the slope goes down because long term most of these companies don't/won't exist. That's why these aren't all auto plays, there has to be some research to support the chart. 

Also, what you see elsewhere is not necessarily indicative of what is inside the model, or what good plays looking like.  You're seeing a lot of post run charts from a big runner that day, just trying to generate clicks.  Many people see a 100% runner, and start searching sites for more info on it. So I post our chart, and probably some sort of sarcastic jab at it. 

Oddly, the last 3 posted SNES, BPTH and TMBR would have been plays that definitely warranted further research into, as just the chart's appearance are those that we look for. 

Charts might look similar out of the dozen or so you are looking at, but when you start scrolling through 100s of them in a search, they definitely will look different. 

The premarket action is a liquidity injection by those who are manipulating the stock and have skin in the game. News alone doesn't force price to increase, it can make it move, but we often see some that jump up 5-10% for a few minutes because some algos pick up the news event, then come right back down.  That's because the company/book runner did not have it planned for the price to go up. 

A news event is usually used to inject liquidity, and that's what causes these runs. Throw in a book runner who gets 3% on the offering, plus the option to buy 3 million extra shares to sell in the run, and it is in their best interest to also run the price up. Also, in some offerings, the company will authorize the use of $X for the book runner to purchase shares in the open market, to increase share price.   This is all in black and white, they tell you what the play is on many of these. You just have to look for and find it. 

CLBS was a prime recent example of one I was in, expecting the news of a COVID trial starting. News came, price went up 10 cents for 3 minutes and that was it. I sold immediately because I've seen it happen many times before, and of course that started a decline in share price.  I cashed out up about 7%  I think?

So, this was also interesting because the CEO had just purchased 50,000 shares 2 weeks prior. When insiders buy these micros, its always because something is about to happen.   This leads me to believe that they did not have the Press Release worded correctly, and the news algos that buy on certain words didnt get the party started correctly so they aborted mission. Or, they are planning on a second PR to announce full enrollment of the trial, and use that one to run it. 

And its not just Robinhooders. Just day traders in general. Lots of people buy on the way up, trying to make money on the long side. Then lots of people try to short,  then they battle it out. 

Throw in a frim running the offering like Lincoln Park for instance, they turn their algo on and start trapping shorts, creating a short squeeze on the front side of the move, and that will increase the price significantly.  Then its off to the races, and everyone is trying to trade the stock and a stock with 4m total shares  and 200k avg daily volume, ends up trading 50 million shares in a day. 

Thats good information...Ive got lots of market experience and info but not on the back side of financing games like this...so I enjoy learning and figuring things out that maybe I felt I had an idea to a degree. Its also interesting how you play these because as you said there is no guarantee that a stock is going to ramp and if it does not it will retrace just as quick and you are stuck.

I have a micro right now that I noticed one day last week it seemed to want to try and ramp but the bump was shallow and did not have follow through even though there was a decent volume spike and move, but no follow through.

Just for fun, OMER...  Now this one isn't as scammy since its a little larger cap, but Cantor is involved.  Usually good for a run

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/104746920004572?cik=1285819

This is terrible. Page 29 and 30. Starting with market making... 

They were allowed to short the stock.  So, they used an algo + news event to run this up to 25+ it looks like, take a short,  and then use the 1 million shares they were allowed to purchase on the very first line of the offering to cover at a purchase price of $14.50m, all while knowing they have to sell 6.6m shares for the company into it too. 

Page 1

Includes 1,035,000 shares of common stock that may be purchased by the underwriters upon exercise of their option to purchase additional shares of common stock

Page 30

 We, the underwriters or other agents may engage in derivative transactions involving the securities. These derivatives may consist of short sale transactions and other hedging activities. The underwriters or agents may acquire a long or short position in the securities, hold or resell securities acquired and purchase options or futures on the securities and other derivative instruments with returns linked to or related to changes in the price of the securities. In order to facilitate these derivative transactions, we may enter into security lending or repurchase agreements with the underwriters or agents. The underwriters or agents may effect the derivative transactions through sales of the securities to the public, including short sales, or by lending the securities in order to facilitate short sale transactions by others. The underwriters or agents may also use the securities purchased or borrowed from us or others (or, in the case of derivatives, securities received from us in settlement of those derivatives) to directly or indirectly settle sales of the securities or close out any related open borrowings of the securities.

Here is another question..

So do you have an idea of the runners or players who are ramping the price from experience of reading the SEC reports and noticing the behavior of certain groups one vs another?

Meaning if you knew that a certain syndicate was involved and that syndicate/group trades a certain way, or conversely that certain groups are crappy at execution of ramping the stock versus others?

Id imagine that information should be uncoverable and if I were trading for a period of time I'd want to track that and try to increase my odds by choosing based on those characteristics and avoiding others who are not.

That is shocking the SEC allows this but I am not really shocked at all...and the company does not give a crap because they need the funding. So if the arrangement is longer term then I would imagine Cantor or others are probably building in a short or if the stock gets cracked a long position to maximize their profits...also a company like OMER who has options makes it possible for a MM like Cantor to short options and know they can cover the short with shares they got from the deal or warrants that they can convert.

I have to say that the deck is so stacked against the little guy, these larger firms have all the advantage and the company needs the funding more than they need the shareholder.

I do believe there was talk of tracking data on this, and starting to see if we could model with any certainty what an expected action would be based on a firms tendencies. Not something we are currently doing though. 

Yes, you get to know some familiar ones, and how they typically do it. But it is also up to the company sometimes too,  and thats where the real scummy ones will just do a short and cover offering, and completely screw over shareholders. It costs less than a pump and dump, and they still get their money. 

When you start getting into this side of the market, reading the filings etc, you learn that every company is a scam, with the only purpose being to sell shares and buy another beach house. 

Look at CRM.  Beinoff sells $7m worth of stock per week. 

Its fun talking to neighbors, and you start telling them how everything is a scam, and you watch their eyes light up. 

MRNA - Bancel is another one that can't sell shares fast enough, despite them supposedly being in phase 3 of a COVID vaccine. Yea, a company that hasnt made a viable product in 20 years is magically going to cure COVID. 

So does that mean you are shorting MRNA??? lol

I saw the LLIT mention, you cant tell me that your players were into that one...the chart is death and its a teeny unknown China stock from nowhere? 

No, No one would have been in LLIT. That country of origin warning really makes you dig deeper into things. 

The CEO just resigned on the spot in August, so I wouldn't have given this a double look at all.  So many others out there to 

I also saw CYCC mentioned, sheesh what an abrupt about face...down over 15% now and just grinding back to a 52 week low. I think I am learning that the name of the game is to take that pump when it comes and get the crap out...so many of these (like SNES etc) turn to garbage instantly. If you are not on the trigger you can get destroyed quickly.

What percent if any turn a corner and go from RS junkies to 10-20-50x return and actual functioning business with potential?

Actually, i think a few did take small flyers on it when a few of the other Chinese plays were running. 

I missed this earlier. But yes, I never hesitate to take profits on these.  I'm incredibly surprised they did not take advantage of today's event. That was actually very positive news. So not sure if they are waiting on the next one coming up shortly, or what the plan is.

The problem is, many are loading these in advance of the events.  Today, there was a lack of bid support, so this didnt have much legs.  Add in no underlying motive to run the price, that killed it instantly. 

Then, once the retail short see this failed breakout on something that runs 30%,  they immediately start hammering it because they knew there will be no bid volume to get squeezed. 

That's why I always preach, no one ever went broke taking profits. 

So what is the special sauce in figuring out what an FST is exactly or when it is going to come about?

And what are the factors that determine red vs yellow and green? I watched a vid, poked around but not a ton mentioned about the how and why. I also did not find any sort of area where people were discussing actual positions or trades being put on...I did find some off topic this and that and the one poster listing charts but not much of anything about actual trades.

That I do not know exactly. Its a culmination of calculations, deeply imbedded info within the SEC filings and  a pinch of this and that.  I'm not the one to try and explain, and i dont know that its ever been shared fully. 

All FSTs will show red, as 90% of them are. No need to confuse anyone. 

Red - if there's price action in the volatility window, it will be short lived

Yellow - If theres a move, a chance it holds its price

Green - When the move happens, it will go up and hold its gain. 

Many folks are either holding plays and waiting, or have moved to cash given the market conditions.  There's lots charts being posted in the chart area for discussion, but not a ton has been running lately for reallocation.  A lot of people are in the same plays too currently, just because of the upcoming events etc

Funny...

I was browsing the chart tool and started making a watchlist yesterday, well today one of the watchlist names is up over 100%. The news was pretty solid but I will wait to see if this retraces before trying. I have a list I am narrowing down and trying to decide what plays I am going to make.

There is one I am following very closely that I owned years ago and it went up higher than I sold it by a long ways but it is retracing and if it comes in a bit more I will enter. The symbol is UVE...they are a regional small/mid size insurer and this year with the hurricane season being heavy they are suffering. If this goes to 5 I am going to step in..but lets see.

It is tough I do not see any green FST when I run a scan and hardly any that are close in time so I have to go off the bands and also the general trend of the stock. Some of these are bonkers...reverse split history like I have never seen, and Ive seen many...like LJPC what the crap?

Green FSTs will be manually changed.   There are 8-10 of those per year, so it will be widely know when they are coming.  OBLN is marked as one, although I dont think 

No opinion on UVE.  I don't see them being a big runner, so not something i would play.  Maybe if they hit EM0, I would take a small options shot depending on what it looked like a the time

LJPC just acquired TTPH I think?  not sure whats going on with that one. Probably some kind of lock up period embedded in the merger filing that would be relevant. 

Pull  up a 10 yr chart on that one, Ive never seen numbers that high...they must have RS'd over 10x to get numbers that high.

Its tough looking at these micros who just RS for a living and the charts are just a straight line down, so many with no revenues burning 20M a year plus on exec salaries and R&D...

Actually I found one maybe worse.... DCTH

Check out stocksplithistory.com,  and run some of those.    DCTH  -99.51% return since the creation. 

A $10k investment in 2010 would be worth $49.01 now.