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Iraqi Dinar (IQD) Investment Discussion Thread

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Posts: 41

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Oct. 14, 2013 - 6:05 AM ET #26

This same friend also has ties to Ernst and Young. He told me that E&Y did a huge audit of the Iraq economy back in 2007. One of the purposes of this audit was to place a fair value for the dinar for revaluation. Their conclusion at that time was a value of $1.17 per dinar.

That was many years ago, and since then there has been significant new oil reserves that have been discovered. It is speculated that this estimate of $1.17/dinar is now a very dated figure.

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Oct. 14, 2013 - 6:10 AM ET #27

Some on this thread, and many others that are skeptical of the prospects of Iraq point to the sectarian violence that is always happening in Iraq. The point being that Iraq cannot or will not ever find peace, and therefore will never "fire up the engines" of a free market capitalism. I have always believed that to be a product of our media with an agenda to make things look like a failure in Iraq. I found this wiki article that points to just that...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war_in_Iraq

It states that although the average American seems to think that Iraq is in chaos, the average Iraqi has shown to display a continuing improvement as the worst of the violence is in the rear view mirror.

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Oct. 14, 2013 - 6:36 AM ET #28

The USA has embassies all around the world, in hundreds of countries. If Iraq is doomed to never be a player on the world stage, why would the US invest over $750 million to construct the largest and most expansive of any embassy in history? Planned for and started under Bush, but also fortefied and added another $100 million by Obama.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embassy_of_the_United_States,_Baghdad

Currently the USD is the "world reserve currency" meaning it is the currency that is held in vaults around the world to maintain wealth, along with gold and silver. It is understood that the IQD will become the second (some say eventually the best) world reserve currency.

esplanade

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 9021

Posted: Oct. 17, 2013 - 4:39 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Easy fella..

So where is this thread you claim I did all these things?

I looked back two years in your posting history and I see no thread regarding Silver and what you claim I did.

I also STILL fail to see any bashing except yours towards me.

I said ONLY that there is nothing to discuss until the PEG is lifted..you took that as bashing. I own some dinar, so why would I be bashing something I own?

You are failing to make sense and are looking like a big whiner..

So find the thread and then show me where in this thread I bashed you.

Have to agree with Sports here. You never give a pure opinion. It's always some attempt to leverage your perceived status on the board with a thinly veiled threat.

esplanade

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 9021

Posted: Oct. 17, 2013 - 4:44 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

I am significantly invested in dinar to answer your question... no need to quote numbers.

You stated some of the valid points as to why Iraq is set up to succeed. In addition to this, their new government is set up similar to USA in terms of being a functional democracy, based on capitalism. Are there growing pains getting there? sure there is...

Many other positives... very educated population. Significant investment by USA and allies. There is many more points, but I;m trying to not give a sales job.

The unrest in Iraq is a backdrop for the entire region. It always has been. That is just noise. This will not hinder the progress. We have gang problems in most cities, but life goes on. Its like that.

Bottom line is that I truly believe that this will be the big one in terms of investments, a true once in a lifetime event. Where else can you make 1000X on your investment?

Some want to believe that it will be an "event" meaning an instantaneous revaluation. While I do think that can be true to some extent, but I think it will be different. More like an RV to get things going, but then the currency traders will take it up from there.

That is where I stand. As for timing, I expect the IQD to be trading on the forex as soon as a few weeks, to maybe a few months down the road. The Iraqi government has been showing its cards in press releases recently... something that has not happened in the prior 10 years of this saga. It is coming soon... but yes it could be a few years to realize full value.

The ironic thing is that if you really think you can make 1000x, there's no reason to be "significantly" invested. Unless a couple grand is a huge play for you.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58463

Posted: Oct. 17, 2013 - 6:34 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:

Have to agree with Sports here. You never give a pure opinion. It's always some attempt to leverage your perceived status on the board with a thinly veiled threat.

I know you are just a wee bit biased, go back and read what I wrote and see if I did anything of what he said.

I own the stupid Dinars, longer than he has even..so why the hell would I make up a reason to bash an investment I own?

You are quite humorous espy..but it has been a little while since you tried to fight with me.

esplanade

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 9021

Posted: Oct. 17, 2013 - 7:39 PM ET #32

Well a month in Europe was a bit more appealing than what is available on Covers.

Vickerman

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 116

Posted: Oct. 29, 2013 - 12:30 AM ET #33

wallstreet you never seem to agree with any type of investment, you act like you are a financial god. you dont know garbage

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Dec. 17, 2013 - 2:44 AM ET #34

Iraq is on the verge of entering article VIII of the IMF... this is the last step before currency reform. It's 2:05AM and the bartenders is yelling "last call"

At least I tried to clue some of you in! That is all I can do here.

Okay WS, your turn to bash

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58463

Posted: Dec. 17, 2013 - 9:12 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

Iraq is on the verge of entering article VIII of the IMF... this is the last step before currency reform. It's 2:05AM and the bartenders is yelling "last call"

At least I tried to clue some of you in! That is all I can do here.

Okay WS, your turn to bash

Show me any part of this discussion that was bashing..

I said I own some, but the currency is pegged by the IMF..that is all I said and it is 100% fact.

So........

Wake2002

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 747

Posted: Dec. 19, 2013 - 11:29 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by Lucrative:

The Central Bank of Iraq has produced 80 trillion dinar. The GDP of Iraq is $250 billion. If the dinar revalues to even 1 cent the money supply of Iraq will be more than 3 times higher than its GDP (1 cent x 80,000,000,000,000 = 800,000,000,000)! No nation on Earth has a money supply greater than its GDP! The US has a GDP of $16 trillion and a money supply of $10 trillion. Based on it’s GDP, Iraq can support a money supply of about $80 billion dollars and guess what? That’s exactly what the value of their supply is!

Interested in the OP's thoughts on this. If accurate, this is a pretty important aspect that seems to have not been addressed in this thread outside of the post I quoted. Even with an assumption of strong growth in Iraq, this seems like it would significantly limit any opportunity for really significant gains that would make this sort of speculative investment remotely worthwhile.

It just seems like this is the magic bullet with respect to this and if you don't investigate the accuracy around this, and if you don't think through what it means, you really kind of just have your head in the sand here

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 3:51 AM ET #37

My research tells me there is 70 trillion dinar... but that is splitting hairs. The money supply in the Saddam regime was about 7 trillion dinar back in the day. That was under a repressive regime. Once internationally convertible, it is estimated that the GDP and overall economy will be operating at a level never seen before in the existence of this country.

If the old economy could easily support a dinar = $3.86... then if you increase the money supply by 10X, it stands to reason that the new economy could easily support $0.386. If you believe that the economy under a capitalist model could be larger or grow at a greater rate, then almost any trajectory could support a significantly higher currency(higher than $0.38/dinar)

The Iraq economy is currently growing at a rate of 9% per year, and projected to grow at a more rapid pace with a convertible currency. These are growth rates (both today and projected) that no industrialized country has ever seen before.

At the end of the day, I am just following the money... The smartest people I personally know in the investment world own millions of dinar. The US Treasury holds 4.5 trillion dinar, and dozens of other countries also are holding trillions. The wartime of budget Bush 43 saw fit to build an monstrosity of an embassy compound on the outskirts of Baghdad, a compound that employs 4000 Americans (non-military).

If my dinar holdings prove to not be a great investment, then the most wealthiest of countries and individuals will also be a bit disappointed.

Wake2002

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 747

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 11:15 AM ET #38

First off, above everything else, I wish you best of luck with your investment.

I actually have a very, very nominal investment in these more out of curiosity than anything.

With that being said, just because you are quoting facts and figures on here that could potentially influence others (and have obviously influenced your investment strategy), I'd encourage you to fact check a bit better.

I researched a bit, and while I do not necessarily question the $7 trillion dinar money supply under the Saddam regime, I will without hesitation 100% assure you that there was not a $7 trillion dinar money supply when it was priced at $3.86. There was a period under the Saddam regime where I believe the rate was closer to 3,500 dinar per $1USD, and if you saw the $7 trillion dinar money supply figure somewhere, it was definitely after Saddam let the printing presses run and the currency had significantly devalued.

I do not stand by these figures 100%, but I saw two different links that respectively quoted the money supply at $25 billion dinar and $27 billion dinar respectively when it was priced at $3.86. Again, I would need to fact check a bit further before I'd completely stand by these figures, but they make much more sense, and I'd be surprised if they were materially off. When you work those figures into your calculation above (instead of the $7 trillion) I think it gives you a more realistic idea of potential appreciation for the investment.

Also, one post you made earlier, about the E&Y contact, when he was quoting the $1.17 fair value, are you sure it wasn't in the context of the fact that the exchange rate was determined to be 1,170 Dinar : $1 USD? It just seems too coincidental for it not to be the case. I'm not saying he was purposely misleading you, but unless he was personally involved in the audit, he could have very easily misinterpreted, or misquoted the information to you.

Anyways, like I said in the first couple of sentences of the post, I do wish you best, but I think it is important for you, and anyone else who invests in these, to realize they are really entirely hanging their hats on the "follow the money" aspect, and the facts and figures really don't support the investment.

First off, above everything else, I wish you best of luck with your investment.

I actually have a very, very nominal investment in these more out of curiosity than anything.

Rush51

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 8856

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:23 PM ET #39

So I go back to my post#11... What am I missing here ?

Iraq is now trying to ward off Al Qaeda in Ramadi and Fallujah.

What a dysfunctional country ( and wow, what a shock)

So how in the hell is a country supposed to have a stable currency, when it cannot even have a stable economy... because it has no economy , ... because it has so much upheaval ??????

Rush51

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 8856

Posted: Jun. 12, 2014 - 9:38 PM ET #40

This thread deserves a bump for obvious reasons.

May I suggest a very obvious comment that was earlier alluded to ;

Security > Investment.

This country is so far away from investment material... It is not even 3rd world relevant. I hope that rings clear.

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: Jun. 13, 2014 - 12:10 AM ET #41

I agree the prospects for the dinar does not look great right now.

No problem... I sold 90% of my holdings for about 95% of what I paid.

Cannot win them all. My insider sources tell me to be holding flush this time next year. Time will tell.

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