How low will DRYS go?

If DRYS inks one of these for their RIGS on order the stock will FLY.

That is why I still hold this pig. If you believe that DRYS will eventually get 2 or maybe all 4 of the RIGS on order and secure deals like this then $2.75 is a bargain.  I believe the shelf offering is going towards the RIGS. 

https://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=73530

Copied from another board analysis on this deal and what it "could" mean to DRYS. 

Great news. They both are drillship very much the same as the ones being built by Samsung for DRYS. Both are12,000 ft capable, drilling depth to 40,000 ft, dynamically positioned drillships. The first is due for delivery in Q4 2010, just like on of the Cardiff rigs, and it is getting $600k per day for 5 years. $1.1 billion contract value. The other, due for delivery in Q3 2011, as is the DRYS rigs, is getting an 8 yr contract with PBR at $550k per day, contract value of $1.6 billion.

With 4 rigs coming in the late 2010 to Q3 2011 range, and contracts of with the strength of these being signed in this environment, the likelihood and prospects for the Primelead segment of DRYS becomes compelling. On the strength of a contract such as the 8 yr with Petrobras, any bank would finance all the rigs. IF there are announcements of contracts such as these coming, the clouds surrounding DRYS would all be gone. Completely.

Back to my dividend question. With the current value of DRYS the dividend is 29%. What are the chances that this dividend gets cut and how low would that take DRYS?

They suspended the dividend over a month ago.  Won't see this thing pay a dividend for a long time

this stock is way way over sold. $2.75 is a great price. starting a position here would be a safe bet. if your looking to hold for a few months than you will be reward very nicely. @ this price it will be a 5 bagger by end of this year. i want to say it will be a 10 bagger from this price but 5 bagger is for sure.

buying drys at this price is stealing.

There's definitly more experienced investers then me around here but personally I don't see how this thing gets to five or ten times this price without an overall market recovery and that's not likely at least this year. Countless number of great companies are getting absolutely hammered because investers feel safer with cash so how will DRYS be any different? $2.75 looks atractive but so did $4 and $3. Personally I'd rather by at $5 on the way to $10 then at $2.75 on the way to $1.50.

Good post VH2,

At this price, anything under 30 bucks, it is 100% ignoring the drilling entity and the earnings potential.

I want to hear the dilution info..the IF and WHY of the transaction..if it is accretive and adds HUGE value that is fine,but if it was a bank scare tactic I wont be happy.

3.70 is a joke, this move is nothing compared to the real value of the company.

Iron

 maybe studying what DRYS business is would help you better understand.  its business is mostly dependent on china. DRYS makes a lot of money from its business. US stocks that are beat down are either banks, or have risk from financial activities, or have high amounts of debts. you add those to the usa looks like its heading to 10% un-employment thats why those are hammered down. DRYS is not in their group but the market has treated them like they are and they are wrong. the ocean rig business is worth atleast 5 times the current stock price.

Personally I'd rather by at $5 on the way to $10 then at $2.75 on the way to $1.50.


thats not smart, thats not even realistic. how do you know that if it goes to $5 it's going to $10 ?? it could hit $5 lose steam drop again and then make another run up so you rather pay $5 have it go to 2.75 again. could well happen to re-test its lows ??

i have never heard of buy higher, sell even higher. Buy low sell high is phrase isnt it ?   it was a good deal @5 and @4   below 3 is a steal.

Rat has a good point WLD, he is saying buy the stock on an uptrend rather than trying to pick a bottom.


Speaking of bottoms, the financials keep selling off..

well today was an uptrend. i wouldn't buy into it. i think we will sell off tomorrow.  I don't see DRYS going below $2  thats my point. 2.75 is a great entry point.

 As above...as I recall, "It is never too high to buy and never too low to sell" was a maxim I got outta Stock Operator I also constantly remind myself that the first 1/8 or last 1/8 is usually the most expensive. Why pick an absolute bottom when there are plenty of other people who want those bragging rights?? And that is all they are, bragging rights. Once the breakout is established, there is plenty of time to join the ride up (or down if you are shorting)

You're kind of making my point. The market is treating them like everything else, I agree its wrong but there's nothing to indicate it won't continue. I'm just saying I would hold off until the markets start to come back, it will still be undervalued at a slightly higher price.

Up to $4.20 in after hours

i saw, i wish i would have pulled the trigger yesterday, i would be up 70%

Me too... I am in at $3.80 and told myself when it went down to $3 that i would buy in if it went to $2.75.  Well it went down so fsat that i was waiting for $2.50....well you seen the rest of the story today.   Needless to say, im still glad that i didnt rebuy....yeah, shoulda coulda woulda, but my money market is tied up in stocks and i didnt want to reallly add more money from my savings

pretty much the exact same situation here, i didn't want to dip into my savings to buy more stock, i am maxed out in stock

well i sold 5k shares today at the close. figured it would gap down tomorrow . then i could get my 5k shares back + a free 1k ,but after news of china's extra stimulus adding on the buying pressure afterhours i think i will be buying back tomorrow and be paying 50 cents more per share. buts ok cause I'm still holding more of it so let er run up tomorrow.


GL everyone this should be a wild ride to end the week.