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    All Forums | Investments

    Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL)

    depeche2
    wallstreetcappers
    claycourtlesson
    32counter
    Toadyrock
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 445
    Posts: 10
     
    depeche2
    depeche2
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    Posts: 67006
    Posted: Sep. 24, 2007 - 11:28 PM ET #1

    Check out this article and look at the growth projections for stationary fuel cells.  I think FCEL is going to be a big time winner.  There is  HUGE market here from which to grow over the next 5-10 years and FCEL stands first in line to benefit.  They are ramping up big time.  Stock is up 40% this year but still stands well below where it was 3 years ago when it was pretty much in decline.  Not anymore.  This is a good article from IBD....

    Fuel Cells The Truly 'Alternative' Energy
    September 24, 2007: 08:05 PM EST

    Sep. 24, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --

    Fujitsu wanted clean energy (NASDAQ:CLNE) at its Sunnyvale, Calif., site.

    But unlike some tech firms going the green route, including nearby Google GOOG, Fujitsu didn't go with solar or wind power. It chose ... fuel cells.

    A stationary fuel cell system, Fujitsu says, is more dependable than solar or wind energy, and needs less space.

    "The fuel cell was a much better option for us," said Richard McCormack, a senior vice president of marketing at Fujitsu. "(Solar and wind) only work at certain times."

    He also says it's easier to install than solar or wind systems. But what also helped the project were government incentives. Government grants remain key because, in general, fuel cells cost more than conventional energy.

    This isn't the same fuel cell technology that's used in cars. Stationary fuel cell systems can power businesses and homes. But it remains a young industry that's a fraction of the size of the solar or wind energy fields. The systems look like big, boxy transformers and many use hydrogen to build heat and energy.

    Of the few publicly traded companies that deal solely with fuel cells, FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) FCEL is performing the best in the stock market. But some tech and industrial giants are also into fuel cells, including United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) UTX, Siemens (NYSE:SI) SI and General Electric (NYSE:GE) GE.

    "The fuel cell market is certainly small," said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, "but it's promising and growing."

    Sizing It Up

    Clean Edge, a research firm focused on green tech, estimates worldwide fuel cell revenue of $1.4 billion in 2006, compared with $15.6 billion for solar and $17.9 billion for wind. But it expects fuel cell sales to hit $15.6 billion in 2016.

    "Stationary fuel cells have kind of been humming along under the radar," said Clint Wilder, contributing editor of Clean Edge.

    Stationary fuel cell systems will likely grow faster than car fuel cells, says Wilder. Getting the technology right for a big industrial fuel cell system is easier than cramming fuel cells into a vehicle, he says.

    FuelCell Energy is one fuel cell firm that shows promise, though it has a long way to go to make good on that promise.

    Before 2003, all of its revenue came from selling its fuel cell research, mostly to the government. Now, most of its revenue comes from product sales. For the quarter ended July 31, its sales rose 55% from the year-ago quarter to $13.5 million. Product backlog more than doubled to $49.6 million, the company said.

    Ford Motor F, California wastewater treatment facilities and Pepperidge Farm, the snack maker, are among its customers. Ford uses FuelCell's products for its plants, not for its cars.

    Fuel cells produce electricity and heat. Companies have started to use the systems to heat boilers.

    Government incentives, though, have been needed to spark the fuel cell industry. California and Connecticut have rolled out special incentives that target fuel cells, one reason for Fujitsu's choice. Fuel cells also have government backing in South Korea.

    Still, fuel cell system costs are falling. FuelCell Energy says manufacturing costs for a 2-megawatt system have fallen to $3,000 from $20,000 in 1997. Prices will continue to fall as bigger orders lead to the economies of higher-volume production.

    Subsidies Could End

    R. Daniel Brdar (pronounced Ba-dar), chief executive of FuelCell Energy, says the cost of his fuel cell systems could be even with conventional power grid energy in as soon as a couple of years. Then, fuel cell makers wouldn't need government incentives to compete.

    But Brdar says he doesn't see solar and wind as rivals. Rather, he sees them as alternatives in the green energy push.

    "We're really three legs of the stool," Brdar said.

    FuelCell's stock has been volatile, but shares are up more than 40% in the last six months. The company hasn't made money and sales fell each year from 2003 through 2005 before rising 10% last year, to $33 million.

    But Brdar says the company is ramping up fuel cell manufacturing capacity, which will get the company toward positive profit margins and cash flow.

    Getting Their Piece

    United Technologies, which installed the fuel cell system at Fujitsu in California, is another big player in the industry. It's working on both stationary and vehicle systems.

    Homer Purcell, vice president of sales at United Tech's power unit, says the company is targeting areas of the country where electricity costs are high, such as California. The company won't give financial details, but Purcell says more companies are looking at fuel cell energy.

    "We're seeing a significant increase in the number of calls," he said.

    Germany's Siemens, which has a large wind-energy business, also sees opportunities in fuel cells.

    It has begun research on fuel cell systems that could help supply energy at power plants.

    The goal is to combine them with gas turbines, to cut the costs of producing power.

    The company says construction of such a plant, though, won't begin until 2012. At that, it calls its timeline aggressive.

    GE, which is sharing a Department of Energy fuel cell research grant with Siemens, sees opportunities with large-scale fuel cells as well.

    GE is taking a somewhat different approach than Siemens to fuel cells that will take even longer to commercialize, but pay off with lesser costs for customers down the road, says Kelly Fletcher, sustainable energy for GE's global research unit. He expects commercialized products around 2015. He says GE, with some help from research grants, has spent about $100 million on fuel cell development.

    "Our interest is at the power plant level," he said.


    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Check out this article and look at the growth projections for stationary fuel cells.  I think FCEL is going to be a big time winner.  There is  HUGE market here from which to grow over the next 5-10 years and FCEL stands first in line to benefit.  They are ramping up big time.  Stock is up 40% this year but still stands well below where it was 3 years ago when it was pretty much in decline.  Not anymore.  This is a good article from IBD....

    Fuel Cells The Truly 'Alternative' Energy
    September 24, 2007: 08:05 PM EST

    Sep. 24, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --

    Fujitsu wanted clean energy (NASDAQ:CLNE) at its Sunnyvale, Calif., site.

    But unlike some tech firms going the green route, including nearby Google GOOG, Fujitsu didn't go with solar or wind power. It chose ... fuel cells.

    A stationary fuel cell system, Fujitsu says, is more dependable than solar or wind energy, and needs less space.

    "The fuel cell was a much better option for us," said Richard McCormack, a senior vice president of marketing at Fujitsu. "(Solar and wind) only work at certain times."

    He also says it's easier to install than solar or wind systems. But what also helped the project were government incentives. Government grants remain key because, in general, fuel cells cost more than conventional energy.

    This isn't the same fuel cell technology that's used in cars. Stationary fuel cell systems can power businesses and homes. But it remains a young industry that's a fraction of the size of the solar or wind energy fields. The systems look like big, boxy transformers and many use hydrogen to build heat and energy.

    Of the few publicly traded companies that deal solely with fuel cells, FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) FCEL is performing the best in the stock market. But some tech and industrial giants are also into fuel cells, including United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) UTX, Siemens (NYSE:SI) SI and General Electric (NYSE:GE) GE.

    "The fuel cell market is certainly small," said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, "but it's promising and growing."

    Sizing It Up

    Clean Edge, a research firm focused on green tech, estimates worldwide fuel cell revenue of $1.4 billion in 2006, compared with $15.6 billion for solar and $17.9 billion for wind. But it expects fuel cell sales to hit $15.6 billion in 2016.

    "Stationary fuel cells have kind of been humming along under the radar," said Clint Wilder, contributing editor of Clean Edge.

    Stationary fuel cell systems will likely grow faster than car fuel cells, says Wilder. Getting the technology right for a big industrial fuel cell system is easier than cramming fuel cells into a vehicle, he says.

    FuelCell Energy is one fuel cell firm that shows promise, though it has a long way to go to make good on that promise.

    Before 2003, all of its revenue came from selling its fuel cell research, mostly to the government. Now, most of its revenue comes from product sales. For the quarter ended July 31, its sales rose 55% from the year-ago quarter to $13.5 million. Product backlog more than doubled to $49.6 million, the company said.

    Ford Motor F, California wastewater treatment facilities and Pepperidge Farm, the snack maker, are among its customers. Ford uses FuelCell's products for its plants, not for its cars.

    Fuel cells produce electricity and heat. Companies have started to use the systems to heat boilers.

    Government incentives, though, have been needed to spark the fuel cell industry. California and Connecticut have rolled out special incentives that target fuel cells, one reason for Fujitsu's choice. Fuel cells also have government backing in South Korea.

    Still, fuel cell system costs are falling. FuelCell Energy says manufacturing costs for a 2-megawatt system have fallen to $3,000 from $20,000 in 1997. Prices will continue to fall as bigger orders lead to the economies of higher-volume production.

    Subsidies Could End

    R. Daniel Brdar (pronounced Ba-dar), chief executive of FuelCell Energy, says the cost of his fuel cell systems could be even with conventional power grid energy in as soon as a couple of years. Then, fuel cell makers wouldn't need government incentives to compete.

    But Brdar says he doesn't see solar and wind as rivals. Rather, he sees them as alternatives in the green energy push.

    "We're really three legs of the stool," Brdar said.

    FuelCell's stock has been volatile, but shares are up more than 40% in the last six months. The company hasn't made money and sales fell each year from 2003 through 2005 before rising 10% last year, to $33 million.

    But Brdar says the company is ramping up fuel cell manufacturing capacity, which will get the company toward positive profit margins and cash flow.

    Getting Their Piece

    United Technologies, which installed the fuel cell system at Fujitsu in California, is another big player in the industry. It's working on both stationary and vehicle systems.

    Homer Purcell, vice president of sales at United Tech's power unit, says the company is targeting areas of the country where electricity costs are high, such as California. The company won't give financial details, but Purcell says more companies are looking at fuel cell energy.

    "We're seeing a significant increase in the number of calls," he said.

    Germany's Siemens, which has a large wind-energy business, also sees opportunities in fuel cells.

    It has begun research on fuel cell systems that could help supply energy at power plants.

    The goal is to combine them with gas turbines, to cut the costs of producing power.

    The company says construction of such a plant, though, won't begin until 2012. At that, it calls its timeline aggressive.

    GE, which is sharing a Department of Energy fuel cell research grant with Siemens, sees opportunities with large-scale fuel cells as well.

    GE is taking a somewhat different approach than Siemens to fuel cells that will take even longer to commercialize, but pay off with lesser costs for customers down the road, says Kelly Fletcher, sustainable energy for GE's global research unit. He expects commercialized products around 2015. He says GE, with some help from research grants, has spent about $100 million on fuel cell development.

    "Our interest is at the power plant level," he said.


     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2003
    Posts: 58464
    Posted: Sep. 25, 2007 - 12:21 AM ET #2

    D2,

    Their margins are garbage and have been for YEARS..they lose 2.5 bucks for every dollar they make product, and thats just GROSS margins.

    I just cannot get on their band wagon, I have known the stock for too long and they just dont ever seem to take that next step.

    In order to be profitable they need to QUADRUPLE or higher their sales and they are not a newbie company, been around for 10 yrs..

    Not a stock I could own....
    Reply
    D2,

    Their margins are garbage and have been for YEARS..they lose 2.5 bucks for every dollar they make product, and thats just GROSS margins.

    I just cannot get on their band wagon, I have known the stock for too long and they just dont ever seem to take that next step.

    In order to be profitable they need to QUADRUPLE or higher their sales and they are not a newbie company, been around for 10 yrs..

    Not a stock I could own....
     
    depeche2
    depeche2
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2002
    Posts: 67006
    Posted: Sep. 25, 2007 - 12:41 AM ET #3

    I don't think their profitability is that far off and the economies of scale are enormous.  I think they can grow revenues 40-50%+ year over year.  Costs are coming down fast all the time while demand ramps up.  At some point not too far off they cross and the rapid growth will be evident.  I think this die of the fuel cell business is way way ahead of autos and the like.As oil and natural energy costs keep rising, fuel cells will become more and more attractive as those prices fall and the government incentives it because it is more efficient and more green.

    10 bucks now and let's hope we can revisit this thread in 2 years.  I call triple.

    Thanks for the thoughts. 
    Reply
    I don't think their profitability is that far off and the economies of scale are enormous.  I think they can grow revenues 40-50%+ year over year.  Costs are coming down fast all the time while demand ramps up.  At some point not too far off they cross and the rapid growth will be evident.  I think this die of the fuel cell business is way way ahead of autos and the like.As oil and natural energy costs keep rising, fuel cells will become more and more attractive as those prices fall and the government incentives it because it is more efficient and more green.

    10 bucks now and let's hope we can revisit this thread in 2 years.  I call triple.

    Thanks for the thoughts. 
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2006
    Posts: 14917
    Posted: Sep. 27, 2007 - 7:25 PM ET #4

    I had a dream about 6.5 years ago that FCEL was going to reach 120.
     
    And yep, I have bought a few shares the last few years as a gift for a relative.........but barely, and I mean BARELY is this in the money over a 2 year period.
     
    I'd love to see the bandwagon take off, but if it pulls an Iomega, than I am bailing out.
     
    Cheers
    Reply
    I had a dream about 6.5 years ago that FCEL was going to reach 120.
     
    And yep, I have bought a few shares the last few years as a gift for a relative.........but barely, and I mean BARELY is this in the money over a 2 year period.
     
    I'd love to see the bandwagon take off, but if it pulls an Iomega, than I am bailing out.
     
    Cheers
     
    depeche2
    depeche2
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    Posts: 67006
    Posted: Dec. 21, 2007 - 3:08 PM ET #5

    FCEL finally hot, over 13 bucks...
    Reply
    FCEL finally hot, over 13 bucks...
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 21, 2007 - 3:56 PM ET #6

    Where have you been hiding D2?
    Reply
    Where have you been hiding D2?
     
    32counter
    32counter
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    Posts: 764
    Posted: Dec. 24, 2007 - 8:21 PM ET #7

    Can someone explain the recent price action in FCEL.  News seems somewhat positive.  Not in yet but looking at it along with frpt.  You guys might want to check out LDK.  Hot sector, company "legally" vindicated with audit, have silicon rates 75% locked in, and building there own silicon plant, recently beat down, with unmet estimates. 
     
     
     
     
    5
    Reply
    Can someone explain the recent price action in FCEL.  News seems somewhat positive.  Not in yet but looking at it along with frpt.  You guys might want to check out LDK.  Hot sector, company "legally" vindicated with audit, have silicon rates 75% locked in, and building there own silicon plant, recently beat down, with unmet estimates. 
     
     
     
     
    5
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 24, 2007 - 11:13 PM ET #8

    Ive stated  I dont care for FCEL, and I have stated I like LDK.

    Different stocks for sure..the audit news for LDK was big, not sure it was THIS big but it has been good for the stock no doubt.  
    Reply
    Ive stated  I dont care for FCEL, and I have stated I like LDK.

    Different stocks for sure..the audit news for LDK was big, not sure it was THIS big but it has been good for the stock no doubt.  
     
    depeche2
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    Posted: Dec. 24, 2007 - 11:52 PM ET #9

    FCEL got hammered today, the Conn. deal was less than expected.  Personally think it's just the tip of the iceberg with plenty in the hopper and this is just a good buying opp.
    Reply
    FCEL got hammered today, the Conn. deal was less than expected.  Personally think it's just the tip of the iceberg with plenty in the hopper and this is just a good buying opp.
     
     
    Toadyrock
    Toadyrock
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2006
    Posts: 1284
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2007 - 9:46 AM ET #10

    I have watched the FCEL train reck since 04'. I live in CT and visited the company, along with another CT born scam. STHK...
     
    Invest elsewhere
     
     
    Reply
    I have watched the FCEL train reck since 04'. I live in CT and visited the company, along with another CT born scam. STHK...
     
    Invest elsewhere
     
     
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