Fed Talk

From our global heads of economics... we're changing our Fed call. Really just getting in line with the Futures market. As you know, the current Fed Fund Target Rate is 4.75%. The futures market currently has an 86% probability of a 25 bps cut (to 4.50%) on 10/31, and a 14% probability of a 50 bps cut (to 4.25%). For reference, by year end, the futures market is pricing in a 19% chance of a 4.50% outcome (ie, one cut from here), a 70% chance of a 4.25% outcome (two cuts from here) and an 11% chance of a 4.00% outcome (three cuts from here).