Elliot wave

Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:



I have to completely disagree. When you say most people who are you talking about? Institutions/hedge funds/ retail? Who? I will guarantee you most people did not get in and are sitting on the sidelines or sold early and have missed the majority of this bull run. This is the MAIN reason we are having this run. When you see Euphoria that's when you sell. Retail Confidence is finally on the rise. We aren't completely there yet but we will have a pullback. 6%-8% is relatively small and is an intermediate top.

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Where do you see numbers on this?  I am talking average investor---they jumped out during fall and have been piling back in--this is a driving force behind bull?  Sure some got out and others are getting out after profits and thinking bull run its course?

Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:



I read everything, I am in the industry.. quick google search and you can find some data..

2013 hedge fund performance -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-09/the-five-reasons-hedge-funds-underperform.html

2014 -

https://fortune.com/2014/05/28/the-real-reason-hedge-funds-have-been-underperforming/

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Most mom & pop retail investors have missed out greatly on the bull run of the last 5 years, as Caper has mentioned.  Just go look at mutual fund inflow/outflow to get a gauge and how the retail investor is behind the curve.  Only last 12-18 months or so has it been positive.   This is nothing new, and is actually quite sad to see how emotions get the best of just about everyone when it comes to investing.  Holding a contrarian view will benefit you if you have conviction.  Doing what the public is doing is seldom the best because emotions get in the way.  Very bad......     And  I don't subscribe to the trading mentality that caper mentions, and feel this is just as  destructive in the long run.   Good luck timing the market in the long run.

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Most mom & pop retail investors have missed out greatly on the bull run of the last 5 years, as Caper has mentioned.  Just go look at mutual fund inflow/outflow to get a gauge and how the retail investor is behind the curve.  Only last 12-18 months or so has it been positive.   This is nothing new, and is actually quite sad to see how emotions get the best of just about everyone when it comes to investing.  Holding a contrarian view will benefit you if you have conviction.  Doing what the public is doing is seldom the best because emotions get in the way.  Very bad......     And  I don't subscribe to the trading mentality that caper mentions, and feel this is just as  destructive in the long run.   Good luck timing the market in the long run.

Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:




agreed, you have to have conviction. I have an account with a longer time horizon that I do not trade out of and I have a trading account.

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Most mom & pop retail investors have missed out greatly on the bull run of the last 5 years, as Caper has mentioned.  Just go look at mutual fund inflow/outflow to get a gauge and how the retail investor is behind the curve.  Only last 12-18 months or so has it been positive.   This is nothing new, and is actually quite sad to see how emotions get the best of just about everyone when it comes to investing.  Holding a contrarian view will benefit you if you have conviction.  Doing what the public is doing is seldom the best because emotions get in the way.  Very bad......     And  I don't subscribe to the trading mentality that caper mentions, and feel this is just as  destructive in the long run.   Good luck timing the market in the long run.

Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

I love day trading  AAPL  because it fluctuates so much. The only problem is before  I could only afford to buy 10 shares at a time(before it split last fri),so is it really worth making 300 bucks when I could make more gambling on sports? My biggest gain was when I had bought it as low as $500 and then sold thurs @ $645   Now it's very affordable,so hope it keeps fluctuating.

Quote Originally Posted by MakeThatCasH:

Quote Originally Posted by MakeThatCasH:

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Was curious on this guy's answer?  Wonder where he went?

Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:



Sorry, I have been trading and to be honest I have also been in a different forum. This is a loaded question, that I don't have a specific answer for. I have a price target but I might sell before my price target. It depends on a multitude of things. I sold out of all my longs yesterday and rebought this morning. An ungameable event happened/black swan (Malaysian plane got shot down over Ukraine). Anyways, the Market is still flying in the short term and will until Tuesday? of next week. There is usually always a short-term bounce after a tragic event. I say Tuesday but will trade accordingly. I have sold 40% of my longs from this morning. I held googl through ER like I said I would (a week ago). I am only holding 5% of my total position in GOOGL (sold this morning) just in case it runs. I bought TSLA this AM 215, 217.5 next week calls (sold 50% of calls now). I have a price target of 229 (50% fib retrace) but may sell the rest a little above 225 the 38% fib. So, to answer your question, it depends on the market. Price target of IWM $115-$116. I still have my stops in place (usually day's low). I TRADE, I don't over analyze because you will miss the bounces. Behavioral game theory helps (learn it and practice it/ use the Trin and study divergences. I bought CUR feb 20 2015 2.50 calls. At one point I owned 40k shares. My average share price is in the mid 2's. I had this position for almost a year and have sold 70% of my shares as it was/is a spec play. I am willing to play the bounce/retrace. I also bought some ICLD stock because it is a 9-10 stock ( this is a couple months out). Oh yeah, I didn't really answer your question because there isn't a specific answer to your question.  Good luck as everyone should define their own risk, as stated above.