BTC will dump when stocks dump.
Maybe Dow retests that Dec ‘18 low of 22,400 before dumping again?
I really do not want to be apart of that dump. If this is timed right you can probably double your stack before the next run.
Or maybe BTC will decouple? Maybe. I think they dump together, BTC recovers faster and goes into a bull run while other markets hang out at the bottom for a while.
Thoughts?
My view on BTC is it seems labored...the trading in the last few weeks has been bearish. The moves are not followed strongly by continued buying and have been met with selling. The moves up seem to be short lived green candlesticks followed by several red meaning the buys are larger at the market and then sellers come in and take it back lower.
I am not convinced any halfing will impact pricing...because to me supply is not what dictates price movements, it is demand. Demand can swallow up supply easy and demand can do nothing to a small supply. Ive seen stocks that seemed to go nowhere due to demand being low and then sell at a 5-10 times multiple of what it was doing NOTHING at for ages...same supply level, same relative economic environment, the only variable was demand.
So tell me how BTC demand will change, what will impact demand...supply does not really seem a factor worthy of owning something without the demand there.
Shorting anything (HD etc) in this obviously bullish environment is scary and to knock a bull out you need a shock and/or an alternative. I think HD is overpriced by 100 bucks, but that doesnt mean it goes where I feel it should from a numbers perspective. If you look at their business numbers, their earnings, margins, the core of their operations...it does not deserve to sell over 100, earnings and revenues have been tepid for five years..stocks with 3% revenue growth do not deserve a 20 PE...HD is a value slow growing mature company, it deserves a low teens value PE ratio. Thats how I read their financials....no growth in margins, very little revenue growth so outside of keeping increasing debt to buy back stock I dont see what they can do to change this situation...
Yeah that is supply selling into demand. So that is the point I am making...supply can increase and have prices still go up if demand is greater than supply in quantity. I have not seen demand follow through in the last few weeks. I'm ok with it because I am well ahead and if it did go under 4k again I would buy another...either way this isnt a monster position that I would be mad about personally.
Prices go up when demand increases, not when supply increase slows. Things change, sometimes when you watch it on a 5 minute chart you over analyze and over complicate things...speaking of myself here. Often times I get into a reasonable trade and watch it to death rather than let it go. I am not going to watch my oils to death, gonna let them ride for a while and so far I am up overall and I have to think I have a few (maybe like DVN) that will end up a double AND have a nice divi yield.
Lets see if 7k holds and forms a new baseline...its been peeking through 7 only to go back down to 6600 to 6500 as the baseline.
On a very long and boring teleconference where I am not really needed right now but feel obligated to join.
So thought I would mention about HD. I see that you are considering shorting it. I never really got your exact reasons why or if it was just a gut feel you have? I got curious because I just have always liked HD. I do not trade individual stocks nearly as much as I did years ago. But sort of had the opposite feel as you do — for no real reason other than, time of year, economic situation, and peer situation.
But as it happens was looking at one of the places I trade and one of the analysts sheets came out today on HD. Pretty standard info included that you can get anywhere at whatever place you trade. But it does have a lot of esoteric stuff you may or may not be interested in.
Overall, they give it a Marginal Buy at this point. 1-10 they rate it a 6, trending down from 8 the last month. For comparison the Mega Market Cap they have at 6.9, S&P 500 at 6.3. But for Specialty Group at 4.7 and Retailers Sector 4.8.
This particular group uses Earnings 6, Fundamental 4, Relative Valuation 2, Risk 10, Price Momentum 9, Insider Trading 3. They also have determined that PM and IT have been more effective to optimize this. This, they optimize HD at a 5.
They also compare among peers and sector. For example, LOW they have at 8. Trailing PE 17.4 and Forward PE 17.7 — LOW 15 and 13.3. HD with a LTG forecast of 7.1% and LOW 15.8%.
But earning forecast is 8 for HD and 6 for LOW while the S&P at 6.4.
Their 12 month target mean is 229 and target vs current at 28.1%.
In their earnings they do a ‘surprise’ category comparing actual to expected and HD had been 8 positive and 4 in-line for the last 12 quarters.
Fundamental they have them at 4. Avg for home improvement retailers 3.9 and S&P 6.1. Debt-to-capital is highest in this group. Accruals Ratio is the lowest in this group.
With a 4 week Moving Average the Relative Valuation Score is 2, LOW 7, S&P 4.4.
Risk hey have at 10 and S&P 8.3. The reasoning behind this is overall HD is in-line. But on up days HD outperforms S&P — But in days when the market is down HD tends to be down more than the market. Beta vs. S&P is 1.15. On positive days 1.14. On negative days 1.25.
Price Momentum up to 10 from 6. 17.1% below 50-dat MA and 19.2% below 200-day MA.
The Insider Trading of 3 is way more bearish than the 6.5 of retailers average and the S&P of 4.5.
At any rate. Some of the things to take away from their evaluation to me are HD seems to be in-line with the market. But does seem to go down more than the market on bad days. It seems LOW would be a better long-term but at this time. HD seems to do as expected more than other stocks as far as earnings and performance.
So, there seems to be maybe a reason or two for a play short-term for HD to go down — mainly, as you see the market to go down. If I were to be day-trading this stock — I would really have to be picky and have a good reason to make a play on the downside. But maybe after a really good day or week in the market I could see taking a chance if I saw a reason for the overall market to go down — because HD tends to drop more than the market.
But overall, I think I would HD to be a buy and hold stick for long-term. But it seems short-term LOW would be the better choice.
If you do decide to short HD — I would consider looking at puts instead of having a margin account where you are leveraged for shorting. Because that can get out of hand in a hurry if the stock goes directly opposite of what you expect! I say this only because you haven’t had the experience with it yet. I don’t mean it to sound negative. That way your potential risk is not as much but you would have some nice chances for a great profit — if you are correct!
I am interested in knowing whatever you decide to do AND the reasoning behind it. So, keep us updated with what you decide to do. 
I don’t know what’s going on with this market right now. I feel like I’m on tilt a bit.
Lower class/middle class America is getting destroyed. Corona fear is pretty severe from the general public.
Unemployment is through the roof.
Fed is printing money at an unprecedented rate.
Dow Jones +1,305
Yeah the market is not about the economy at all..its about being in front of the cure and positioned for when money moves back in. No reason for the market to keep being bullish except for front running and lots of cheap leverage.
Interesting watching the Level 2 on Coinbase pro seeing the bid and ask sizes for the last hour or so. Volume has picked up quite a bit on the move up and there have been many big fat sizes trying to slow it down...fat to me is over 10 lots to sell and when it crossed through 7300 it had to chew through a 50 lot before it popped. The bid/ask is heavier on the sell side but so far there is enough demand to push through all of the supply.
He has to send the money because he has a margin call...he is using a margin account and is leveraged, when trades go against you on a margin account you have to bring money in to settle the ammt you are below the margin requirement. He is lucky they dont just sell his account out...its rare that a firm will let someone float if they have a margin call. Usually they will freeze and sell you out.
Tilted? I can not fathom how horrible it must be to wake up every morning and be pulling for the total destruction of our USA economy and our markets? Everyone is entitled to their own hopes and dreams, but your hopes and dreams are so negative and disturbing that I feel you have well earned this feeling of being "tiltled". It's almost comical to read your stuff.
Why not be happy that your BTC is on the verge of doubling from its low? Do you not have any friends and family suffering financially because of this crisis?
I have personally used this bounce to increase my cash positions from basically zero to 20%. I'm not confident that these levels will hold, but I will have a sizable cash position to deploy when we are on the other side of this crisis. I remain optimistic about the future of this country and will continue to have faith in the USA. I hope you don't get too tilted if the USA survives.
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