Crypto thread

FTSE dumps 7% on open 

This is just the beginning

The next year will be a major test for Bitcoin 

Markets are now pricing in a 100bps cut on March 18th. That’s 1.50% over a two week period and brings us to 0%. 

Imagine calling the top, going into Bitcoin, and getting destroyed even worse. 

Lord help me. 

At least my gold is holding strong. 

Level 1 triggered immediately on S&P 500 -7% 

The up cycles take ten years. The down cycles takes 18 months. 

I’m betting that the up cycle in Bitcoin started March 2019 and that the down cycle in the traditional markets has just begun.

Highly recommend taking some time and watching/listening to Anthony Pompliano’s podcast with Raoul Pal on YouTube.

I feel your pain Detox. I'm down more money in two weeks that I ever thought imaginable. It looks like the Dow, S&P, and Bitcoin are all in a race to zero. 

Brutal. 

VIX highest level since December 2008. 

People think there is going to be a quick turnaround in the traditional markets. 

I do not think so. 

There is a lot more pain coming. I’d say Dow Jones under 18,000. Layoffs. Housing market. 

The fun has just started. 

People that keep their jobs and rent luxury condos will buy houses when the housing market crashes. 

Nobody will be paying the kind of rent we’re seeing today. 

Condos are always the least desirable in a buyers market. 

I would say the order goes 1) multi family 2) traditional house 3) condo 

18 months from now will be the time to buy real estate again. Especially a condo in areas like Arizona/Florida. Places where people own their 2nd and 3rd homes/condos. 

Crisis in the housing market ?  I hardly doubt it.  The banks are not in a dire position as they were during the housing crisis.  They aren't overleveraged now to housing , and have capital requirements instituted since then (remember stress tests ? ; they still occur annually )  .  BTW, bank lending standards are much more stringent since then.   Ironically, there is more to fear w/ corporate debt than consumer debt this time... Particularly in the oil patch.

Yeah, the market will go into a recession but nothing will happen to the housing market. Saturation points aren’t a thing. 

Probably a good time to buy. 

/s

Definitely agree with you there, Detox..  The velocity to the downside and the VIX tells me this is a pure panic situation.   Will do some additional purchasing for sure.   We might hit bear market any day now... and yes,  recession much higher probability now. 

Italy just announced a nationwide lockdown 

Today the s&p has backtracked all the way to February of 2018 levels when it sat at 2762 and closed today at 2746. What a dizzying destruction of wealth we have seen over the past 11 trading days.

Detox...I point out these specific levels because this is the level of our hypothetical challenge when Bitcoin traded at 8500. Over this period the s&p 500 has returned a negative .60% while Bitcoin has returned a negative 7.8% over the past two years and one month. 

To me it seems as if there is more pain to come in the markets but I'm not selling at these levels. The reason is two-fold. Firstly, as most of you know, I don't attempt to time the markets. Secondly, over the past two years my investments have spun off tens of thousands of US dollars in the form of dividends and distributions. 

I point this out because as time flies by, Bitcoin returns exactly zero dollars to its holders while stock market investors have a reliable income stream. Of course, dividends can get cut during a crisis such as this, but the general rule is that dividend payments go up over time. Every year that this hypothetical challenge goes on, the S&P actually adds 3% per year to the spread in real dollar terms. 

I understand that owning Bitcoin is a bet on a future parabolic expansion of value. But doesn't the loss of the 3% per year in relative earnings concern you?

Crypto is just finishing up it’s down cycle. The down cycle in the traditional markets has just begun. 

Fiat printing is about to go into overdrive. Bitcoin printing is about to be halved. 

The outcome is inevitable. 

NYSE 11,298

Dow Jones 23,851 

SPY 274 

BTC 7,930 

Gold 1,668 

TSLA is still up 45% this year. You think this over? It hasn’t even started. 

The dividends argument is the same argument people in crypto made about staking. Sure it’s a nice side benefit while it’s going up. It certainly doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to hold the stock as it’s about to get decimated over the next 18 months. Please share the stock and it’s current price so we can track it’s progress in the thread. 

I wasn't referring to any single stock in particular, but the yield on my overall portfolio.

Obviously, I'm not nearly as pessimistic as you are, especially considering my longer term view. I prefer to have faith in the scientists working on the solutions and vaccines combined with the hope that the spread will slow down as summer approaches. Consumer spending is obviously going to take a big hit and that's bad news, but the market has made a pretty big move to price that in no?

As for the next 18 months, I remain hopeful that dividend payments don't get cut and that we all survive without getting sick. I think that's better than predicting the entire system is going to crash down on itself. 

I mean, seriously, we have just had the absolute worst 11 trading days in the history of the markets and BTC is still behind by a dividend adjusted 13% on the challenge. 

We remain on opposite sides of this argument but I hope we both survive it profitably.....that's still a possibility right?

Wew I’m glad that recession is over, time for another 10 year bull market. 

Bitcoin going down rapidly

There are no circuit breakers in Bitcoin 

Gold and Bitcoin holding strong 

NYSE 11,177 

Dow Jones 23,553 

SPY 274 

Gold 1,638 

BTC 7,840 

I was thinking the bottom for the Dow Jones would be around 18,000. Now I think 14,000 is in play.