Those people are looking at technical charts and patterns. I am extremely familiar with all that Elliot wave blah blah and its backwards thinking that may or may not come true. I would take more value in the futures trading you saw than if Elliot Wave sequence F comes in or not.
One technical indicator that does hold value in my book is the lower highs and lower lows concept...that I agree with.
Good luck Detox. Like Wall, I'm still on the sidelines. The range of 6-10K seems pretty safe to me but that's just technical chart analysis. I recall you saying you thought it would test this level two times and then you would jump in again. So this drop pretty much matches up with your script.
I still can't get past the valuations and where all this fresh money is going to come from. The big players are the ones that will make it move and I'm not sure that will happen. Anyone that bought at $200 in September of 2015 has surely taken profits as they made 7000% in 2.5 years. March 2017 buyers at $1000 are up 600% in a year. The profits made in the last 3 years is mind boggling. The stock markets have absolutely ZERO stories like this over such a short time horizon.
Bitcoin and crypto have reached maximum awareness. I doubt you could walk down the street and find a single person that has not heard of Bitcoin/Crypto. The momentum phase is over in my opinion. I have huge doubts where the buyers will come from to push Bitcoin higher.
My premise remains the same. Bitcoin is theoretically a currency. However, it is not widely available for use (aka, credit cards or cash) partly because its fees are outrageous compared to the alternatives. When I use a credit card, it's value is 101% of whatever I purchase because I get 1% cash back. When I use cash, I get 100% of value. Bitcoin must create an infastructure to compete with cash and credit cards to increase its use. IMO, this will never happen because of greed. Thus, Bitcoin will remain a speculative investment along with other cryptos.
FYI, since you suggested the Bitcoin vs. the market challenge, the S&P is -4%. Bitcoin is -25%.
Why change the challenge now? We were never gambling real bitcoin or cash anyway. My view is that the upside for Bitcoin is extremely limited. It will not grow with the markets. Period.
The markets always make higher highs. This has been true since the beginning of modern times. While this is partially due to inflation, it's mostly due to value...both intrinsic and secondary.
Let the challenge roll. It's a challenge that Bitcoin can only win in the short run.
This is an online forum. We gamble here only with our words. So you say I was scared of a hypothetical wager and am only popping in at a convenient time? That's both untrue and somewhat provoking. I have been in and out of this post since December of last year when you were touting Bitcoin and crypto at what has been proven to be extremely overvalued levels. I am here to be the voice of reason and thus far my "sell Bitcoin" calls have been spot on the money since you started this thread.
Your challenge was proposed on February 4th at S&P 2762 and Bitcoin 8,500. Since the "challenge" is hypothetical, that's the scoreboard I will use.
Just start where the numbers are today...it's about the same difference and will be easier to track (Or alternatively, start a new thread).
FWIW, not really equal footing in this challenge as you're taking a basket of equities v. one equity(BTC), though I guess you could make an arguement for either side having a stronger opportunity...but whatever...I'm most interested in the outcome. BTC, ETH and XRP will eventually make it into the retail world sooner, rather than later.
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