Posted:
#1
anyone going to load up on some energy stocks? Buy gold and oil ETF's and sell the $SPX ???
Crude $UWTI
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Posts: 11
Posted:
#3
Im continuing to buy oil as it goes lower. Got USO at avg of $17.05, UWTI at avg of $2.50, and WLL at around $25. Got more orders getting ready to fill, hopefully, with USO and UWTI. Also, my wife also reallocated her 401k contributions from 10% XOM to 75%. Hoping it continues to fall for a bit, as we currently afford to load up.
Posted:
#5
Lots of traders with missing fingers right now. Trying to catch a falling knife is a bad idea.
China is the elephant in the room. Devaluing is being interpreted as their economy slowing down.
They are a big consumer of commodities and raw materials. They just gave US companies a 4 percent discount on their goods.
Oil will not move up until china gets sorted out.
Posted:
#8
I don't really want to talk about how much money I've lost playing UWTI and other 3x leveraged ETNs, but I feel it's my personal responsibility to point out decay for people.
All these daily movements and contract rollovers heavily erode at the price of these 3x ETNs. UWTI was above $3 about 6 weeks ago around $60 a barrel.
If crude oil hits $84 a barrel, UWTI will only be like $3.15 now, and that's if it goes up in a straight line up tomorrow. That's what decay does to these things.
It's pretty low now, but if you're thinking "if it goes down, I'll just hold it and it'll eventually go back up," that's the wrong way of thinking.
UWTI and other 3x ETNs are meant to be swing/daytraded and held for not much longer than a few days to a week.
I tell everyone it's the equivalent of sitting at a raked poker table. The longer you stay, the smaller the overall pot gets.
USO is the 1x equivalent of UWTI. It doesn't decay quite as fast, but it still does decay. That's a longer term hold, but not a huge return even if crude returns to it's levels a few months ago.
Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by Dragon_Slayer:
slamspurs great insight about the 3xETN's. Do you have a crude stock to buy as prices continue to fall? how did you calculate crude at 84 and $UWTI only at 3.15?
slamspurs great insight about the 3xETN's. Do you have a crude stock to buy as prices continue to fall? how did you calculate crude at 84 and $UWTI only at 3.15?
I think I miscalculated originally. For short term volatile trading only the two best are UWTI (long), and DWTI (short).
DWTI has lost 50% of its value the last two days because of crude's triumph back to $45 a barrel.
I honestly don't know where it will go on Monday, but the past 5 years crude has gone down immediately following Labor Day which is a week from now.
If you are aware of the volatility and that you can't you can't hold either of them for too long, then go have fun.
If you're looking for a more long term outlook, I just found out about USL the other day. It's very similar to USO, but tracks yearly futures rather than monthly. USO is the 1x standard which UWTI and DWTI is based off of.
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