This is what I think will happen on oil over the next 6 months...
I think this week we try to rally ...
The last two weeks of Sept I expect Oil to get clocked to about 85 and bottom until mid to end of OCT between 85 and a 100.
At that poiint it should begin a rally into early next year possible into Feb to about the 120 area.
By the late spring of next year I would expect it to drop to the low 70's
The last drop should be as the economy is getting hammered.
So... Next week I sell my DIG hopefully 76 or better and buy the DUG at about 38 for a potential move to the mid 50's into early OCT
If I don't get the hit in oil I am looking for I will be stuck in the DUG until early next year and will get an opportunity to buy it at about 33 to 35. The hit may be contained for now but the hit next yeat to the low 70's look certain to me
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is what I think will happen on oil over the next 6 months...
I think this week we try to rally ...
The last two weeks of Sept I expect Oil to get clocked to about 85 and bottom until mid to end of OCT between 85 and a 100.
At that poiint it should begin a rally into early next year possible into Feb to about the 120 area.
By the late spring of next year I would expect it to drop to the low 70's
The last drop should be as the economy is getting hammered.
So... Next week I sell my DIG hopefully 76 or better and buy the DUG at about 38 for a potential move to the mid 50's into early OCT
If I don't get the hit in oil I am looking for I will be stuck in the DUG until early next year and will get an opportunity to buy it at about 33 to 35. The hit may be contained for now but the hit next yeat to the low 70's look certain to me
see clay i am an optimist. for no other reason than if it doesnt turn around i am gonna have to find a new job(maybe a iceroad trucker)
but really the us economy is in shambles right know right inline with the world economy but we SHOULD be the first out of this mess as well. WE have had some good economic indicators over the past couple of weeks. housing market did not decline as much is month as it did last. i hope that ya'll are wrong on this.
You guys have been right on the ball with oil though. i certainly do respect yours and mikeys , and walstreets opinions and i love the topics that we cover in this forum.
alot of option trading though. i never get involved in options unless i am gonna hedge a position.
see clay i am an optimist. for no other reason than if it doesnt turn around i am gonna have to find a new job(maybe a iceroad trucker)
but really the us economy is in shambles right know right inline with the world economy but we SHOULD be the first out of this mess as well. WE have had some good economic indicators over the past couple of weeks. housing market did not decline as much is month as it did last. i hope that ya'll are wrong on this.
You guys have been right on the ball with oil though. i certainly do respect yours and mikeys , and walstreets opinions and i love the topics that we cover in this forum.
alot of option trading though. i never get involved in options unless i am gonna hedge a position.
i have heard alot of rumors about a potential buyout of lehman bros.
Why would an american company buyout lehman. the only division worth a damn is thier retail division, and all those guys will go to another financial monster like B of A, fidelity. etc. so i do not see much value in buying them out unless it was a european bank trying to get involved in us market, which seems likely.
i have heard alot of rumors about a potential buyout of lehman bros.
Why would an american company buyout lehman. the only division worth a damn is thier retail division, and all those guys will go to another financial monster like B of A, fidelity. etc. so i do not see much value in buying them out unless it was a european bank trying to get involved in us market, which seems likely.
I would love to be optimistic, but first and foremost, I am a realist. Sadly, the reality is that we as a country are in about "inning 2" of the recession game.
The run amok greed and bad loans on the financial balance sheets will literally take years to clean up. Of course, we can sweep everything under the rug by bailout packages (ie running the dollar printing press at warp speed and handing the taxpayer-----you, me, and everyone else-------the tab), but all that will do is delay the hitting of the current hurricane, but also turn it from a category 5 to like a category 55 when it finally does hit about 5 years from now.
There is no leadership in this country, either, so there is no real reason to hope for any plausible resolution to the energy mess in which we currently sit. And, the middle east is an unwinnable war sucking even more tax dollars out of us.
We're screwed, let's face it.
We'd have been much better off to let the s-t hit the fan full speed back last August when all the subprime stuff broke, rather than ram about 14 bailout packages down the throats of the taxpayer.
GM and F will come asking for a bailout package next.
I don't know about anyone else here, but there is no way I would hold one share of anything for "the long haul" right now when the future is so bleak. Trading is one thing, but investing is another. I have never been a gold bug, but gold may be the only thing that makes sense in this horrific environment that is getting worse and worse as we read/write.
Dpl-
I would love to be optimistic, but first and foremost, I am a realist. Sadly, the reality is that we as a country are in about "inning 2" of the recession game.
The run amok greed and bad loans on the financial balance sheets will literally take years to clean up. Of course, we can sweep everything under the rug by bailout packages (ie running the dollar printing press at warp speed and handing the taxpayer-----you, me, and everyone else-------the tab), but all that will do is delay the hitting of the current hurricane, but also turn it from a category 5 to like a category 55 when it finally does hit about 5 years from now.
There is no leadership in this country, either, so there is no real reason to hope for any plausible resolution to the energy mess in which we currently sit. And, the middle east is an unwinnable war sucking even more tax dollars out of us.
We're screwed, let's face it.
We'd have been much better off to let the s-t hit the fan full speed back last August when all the subprime stuff broke, rather than ram about 14 bailout packages down the throats of the taxpayer.
GM and F will come asking for a bailout package next.
I don't know about anyone else here, but there is no way I would hold one share of anything for "the long haul" right now when the future is so bleak. Trading is one thing, but investing is another. I have never been a gold bug, but gold may be the only thing that makes sense in this horrific environment that is getting worse and worse as we read/write.
I have read nothing encouraging at all this weekend,The Lehman story is taking on incredibly bad proportions, and they can't give it away. I would say we will allbe the proud owners of it by Monday, whether they admit to that fact or not.
I have read nothing encouraging at all this weekend,The Lehman story is taking on incredibly bad proportions, and they can't give it away. I would say we will allbe the proud owners of it by Monday, whether they admit to that fact or not.
WTF.. you know something i dont?.... obviously.
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