Biotech Opinions (DVAX, VVUS), & Question About Reverse Splits

So where does DVAX go from here? Well next week will be a key in knowing. After the selloff has subsided, you're going to have a lot of long-term holders, and a lot of short sellers just like you had this summer.

DVAX plans to submit their application for FDA approval in late March, with a typical 6-9 month window for review and approval. Sometimes drugs get approved early. Other times the FDA will come back with additional questions that could stretch the process out even longer. That's what happened with DVAX's last trial.

So what I hope is, in the mean time DVAX trades in the range it traded in for the past few months of 22-28, with strong support around $24.

It will probably get a pop in late March after they announce the FDA submission. But could either trade a range for a while, or could push into the 30s the closer it gets to the 6-9 month review window.

What am I doing? Well I'm still in natural gas. After losing every penny I had in this vicious, widow making commodity, it's finally come back strong over the past month. It bottomed at $1.68 in Mid December, and has been on a tear lately up to $2.49 on Friday.

In the short term, I feel it will have trouble pushing through $2.50 and $2.60, but think it's headed to at least $3.00 sometime this winter due to a number of factors. I won't get into those because I wouldn't encourage investing in natural gas and oil to my worst enemies.

But I mention this because I need my natural gas holdings to go up and make margin available so I can buy back my stake in DVAX. So I need it to stay at a decent price until I can scale back in. My price target is in the $24-25 range, and anything lower would be icing on the cake.

If DVAX goes back into the 30s, I might pass on it altogether. The upside would be more limited, and the spite of having to sell it earlier would get to me.

Analysts are putting price targets of $38 to $60 for DVAX, so they think it has considerable upside. I think we could get into the high 30s before the FDA even makes it's decision.

So what happens after FDA approval? Well I have some predictions on that.

During one of the earlier Heplisav trials, Merck actually funded it. They pulled out after Heplisav had an SAE (serious adverse event).

DVAX also has a trial going on right now with Merck for a combination therapy of DVAX's SD-101 therapy and Merck's Keytruda. These are cancer drugs, and initial data has shown that they work well together.

So after Heplisav gets approved, I'm predicting Merck to be heavily involved in the launch. They will either help fund the roll out, or outright purchase Dynavax.

It would be a good move for Merck, as they would be buying an approved Hepatitis B vaccine that would be the new standard for the industry. It's already beaten it's competitor in direct trials against each other. They also continue the SD-101 trial and purchase the goods to the finished project.

So it's probably stupid of me to mention all this when I don't even have a stake anymore, and want it to go down, but hopefully this stays a niche forum and the info only benefits my fellow cappers.

So yeah, that's my write-up DVAX that I would like to share with this board. Covers been a part of my life since college, and I wanted to share it with everyone.

As I've grown older, I've gone away from sports betting, and have looked at other ways of making money. Biotechs appeal to the gambler in me because they are volatile, and you can make or lose a lot of money with them.

I might come back with another update in a week or so. We'll see.

As of this post, DVAX is $26.79.

Damn, stupid covers froze on me, so I lost a paragraph.

I just wanted to say that when I made my original post in November of 2014, DVAX was $14.46.

Within less than a year, and again recently, you would have doubled your money if you bought when I had mentioned it. This was with relatively little risk, as we all knew that they would pass stage III again with flying colors just like last time.

At this point it's a little dicier. I don't think you're in danger of losing a huge amount of money between now and September, and will probably make some.

But there is going to be more risk associated with owning DVAX the closer it gets to FDA decision time.

As we get closer to  approval, and eventually get approved, I think DVAX should be in the $38 to 50 range. That's 50-100% profit from here.

So still money to be made, but with more risk involved. But hey, if you bought when I mentioned it before, you had the potential to triple or quadruple your money with a little patience.

Happy New Year to everyone.