ok, i see what you are saying. You are probably right, brokers, lenders and real estate agents were telling the buyers that everything is going to continue to be great. If these buyers had any common sense they'd think to themselves....if homes keep appreciating like they've been then pretty soon no one is going to be able to afford to buy a new home.
There will be a domino affect to the housing market taking a dump. I really wish i got into a tri-plex a few years back because the demand for rental properties is pretty high. But back to the domino affect it's real simple consumer spending will decrease, not good news with the holiday season right around the corner....especially with "credit" being tougher to qualify for. Maybe we need another attack on us or start another with someone (as sad as that sounds).
Verm....
ok, i see what you are saying. You are probably right, brokers, lenders and real estate agents were telling the buyers that everything is going to continue to be great. If these buyers had any common sense they'd think to themselves....if homes keep appreciating like they've been then pretty soon no one is going to be able to afford to buy a new home.
There will be a domino affect to the housing market taking a dump. I really wish i got into a tri-plex a few years back because the demand for rental properties is pretty high. But back to the domino affect it's real simple consumer spending will decrease, not good news with the holiday season right around the corner....especially with "credit" being tougher to qualify for. Maybe we need another attack on us or start another with someone (as sad as that sounds).
great article....the term "investment property" is thrown around loosly amongst new homeowners, a high percentage of uneducated buyers. I would love to see what these homeowners consider an "investment property". I think what they mean by "investment property" is to build equity and sell it and then get into a nicer and bigger home that is more expensive than the home they just built equity in and sold.
great article....the term "investment property" is thrown around loosly amongst new homeowners, a high percentage of uneducated buyers. I would love to see what these homeowners consider an "investment property". I think what they mean by "investment property" is to build equity and sell it and then get into a nicer and bigger home that is more expensive than the home they just built equity in and sold.
Tobin Smith is a 100% investment TOUT..ignore what he has to say, he is trying to sell a news letter and cannot be relied upon for a single word he says..go against what he says...
back to vacation....
Real quick..
Tobin Smith is a 100% investment TOUT..ignore what he has to say, he is trying to sell a news letter and cannot be relied upon for a single word he says..go against what he says...
Tobin Smith is a 100% investment TOUT..ignore what he has to say, he is trying to sell a news letter and cannot be relied upon for a single word he says..go against what he says...
back to vacation....
My point was that precisely that regarding Smith: a well known pie in the sky tout.
I would say my point of view for the moment falls along side this technician, not named, quoted in an article today:
Sell during rallies, and don't get lured back
into the market by minor upturns until another big down day is followed
by a massively strong up day in which 90% of stocks are up and 90% of
total volume is up. That would signify that stocks are cheap enough to
attract bargain-hunters in a big way
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
Real quick..
Tobin Smith is a 100% investment TOUT..ignore what he has to say, he is trying to sell a news letter and cannot be relied upon for a single word he says..go against what he says...
back to vacation....
My point was that precisely that regarding Smith: a well known pie in the sky tout.
I would say my point of view for the moment falls along side this technician, not named, quoted in an article today:
Sell during rallies, and don't get lured back
into the market by minor upturns until another big down day is followed
by a massively strong up day in which 90% of stocks are up and 90% of
total volume is up. That would signify that stocks are cheap enough to
attract bargain-hunters in a big way
the rally on friday was bullshit, mkt opened higher and has sold off
conspiracy theory rumor i hear is that the White House on thurs afternoon btw 12:30 and 1:00 told the big houses to buy the market and they would get a rate cut going into friday. i heard it on Larry Kudlow's show fri afternoon...
link not to the rumor but to the background on the group
if anyone cares
the rally on friday was bullshit, mkt opened higher and has sold off
conspiracy theory rumor i hear is that the White House on thurs afternoon btw 12:30 and 1:00 told the big houses to buy the market and they would get a rate cut going into friday. i heard it on Larry Kudlow's show fri afternoon...
link not to the rumor but to the background on the group
I do agree with the thrust of that article but would note that the supervision of the market is a job of the federal government. (One hilarious thing to note is that the first SEC chairman, I think, was Joseph Kennedy, of all people. "Set a thief to catch a thief "was FDR's remark upon his selection of that infamous tool.)
Unfortunately, it has been degraded into cleaning up the disastrous, incestuous relationships that crony capitalism has spawned, rather than having the tools to prevent them from occurring in the first place. ("Analysts" that never evaluate any security unfavorably, the backscratching that has persisted in cooking the books by auditors/consultants, despite Sarbanes Oxley, and of course now the housing scandal created by bogus valuations by ratings industry types and mortgage companies). And of course, no one really knows anything about how seriously under-regulated hedge funds operate, until they have to disclose the emptiness of their portfolios and blow up.
This continues a long term trend of corruption that has proceeded despite the supposed lessons learned from the dot.com (and the even larger, telecom bubble burst.These bubbles are manufactured, gulling a new generation of investors into yet another "can't miss" "investments.
Does anyone seriously trust economic data that reveals no downturn in construction employment? Exactly who can anyone point to as a disinterested party in this matter? Industry CEOs? Please.Government VIPs, who are former CEOs? Hardly. Or how about Saudi estimates of oil in their fields???? LMAO!!
Lawyers? Accountants? Ah, no....
Truly a fascinating thing to watch, a game of economic musical chairs.We will get to see the usual show trial, closing the barn door after the horses have left congressional hearings, new rules will be enacted and the game will reset, about as well as loads of those loans will.
Thanks, I shall now seek a "soft landing" from this soap box.
I do agree with the thrust of that article but would note that the supervision of the market is a job of the federal government. (One hilarious thing to note is that the first SEC chairman, I think, was Joseph Kennedy, of all people. "Set a thief to catch a thief "was FDR's remark upon his selection of that infamous tool.)
Unfortunately, it has been degraded into cleaning up the disastrous, incestuous relationships that crony capitalism has spawned, rather than having the tools to prevent them from occurring in the first place. ("Analysts" that never evaluate any security unfavorably, the backscratching that has persisted in cooking the books by auditors/consultants, despite Sarbanes Oxley, and of course now the housing scandal created by bogus valuations by ratings industry types and mortgage companies). And of course, no one really knows anything about how seriously under-regulated hedge funds operate, until they have to disclose the emptiness of their portfolios and blow up.
This continues a long term trend of corruption that has proceeded despite the supposed lessons learned from the dot.com (and the even larger, telecom bubble burst.These bubbles are manufactured, gulling a new generation of investors into yet another "can't miss" "investments.
Does anyone seriously trust economic data that reveals no downturn in construction employment? Exactly who can anyone point to as a disinterested party in this matter? Industry CEOs? Please.Government VIPs, who are former CEOs? Hardly. Or how about Saudi estimates of oil in their fields???? LMAO!!
Lawyers? Accountants? Ah, no....
Truly a fascinating thing to watch, a game of economic musical chairs.We will get to see the usual show trial, closing the barn door after the horses have left congressional hearings, new rules will be enacted and the game will reset, about as well as loads of those loans will.
Thanks, I shall now seek a "soft landing" from this soap box.
We arent done yet. A 50 basis pt cut and more liquidity this morning arent going to calm the markets when more and more companies are either laying off or going under
Look at all the names dropping again today, IMB, CFC, TMA, many financials..
Look for more declines, in fact we should be talking puts on these bounces, at least until middle Sept..
I agree...
We arent done yet. A 50 basis pt cut and more liquidity this morning arent going to calm the markets when more and more companies are either laying off or going under
Look at all the names dropping again today, IMB, CFC, TMA, many financials..
Look for more declines, in fact we should be talking puts on these bounces, at least until middle Sept..
wallstreet - the big brokers report btw sept 10 and 20th...we have redemptions, hedge fund margin calls...october 1st may be the day to look to get long again
hopefully by then the weak hands will be out of the mkt
as far as i'm concerned CFC can go under...as i heard someone this morning say "They're too big to fail"
was Enron? Worldcom? GM? Ford?...if you cannot sustain your business you go under...thats it
DJIA bottom is around 12880...we'll see if we retest those lows. notice how we bounced at it last thursday
wallstreet - the big brokers report btw sept 10 and 20th...we have redemptions, hedge fund margin calls...october 1st may be the day to look to get long again
hopefully by then the weak hands will be out of the mkt
as far as i'm concerned CFC can go under...as i heard someone this morning say "They're too big to fail"
was Enron? Worldcom? GM? Ford?...if you cannot sustain your business you go under...thats it
DJIA bottom is around 12880...we'll see if we retest those lows. notice how we bounced at it last thursday
Spoke to a friend of mine who has a good job at chase. He used to work at washington mutual and knows some people there. He says they have lots of subprime loans also and should take a beating once the news comes out. He says Chase doesn't have much exposure to those bad loans.
Spoke to a friend of mine who has a good job at chase. He used to work at washington mutual and knows some people there. He says they have lots of subprime loans also and should take a beating once the news comes out. He says Chase doesn't have much exposure to those bad loans.
chase is the biggest loser in the dow today though. interesting... i've also heard this...
NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Prudential Financial Inc. has the riskiest investment portfolio, including subprime exposure, among life insurers, while MetLife Inc. and Genworth Financial Inc. should be closely monitored, Citigroup analyst Colin Devine said in a report on Monday.
Devine said Prudential's <PRU.N> portfolio had the greatest exposure to high-risk assets at 13.8 percent, with MetLife <MET.N> close behind at 13.6 percent. Genworth <GNW.N> followed with 9 percent, he said.
The average level of high-risk assets for life insurers as a percentage of total investments was 7.8 percent for 15 publicly traded life insurers, Devine said.
The Citigroup analyst defined high risk as below investment grade bonds, equities, real estate and other partnerships and joint ventures.
Prudential and MetLife officials could not be reached for comment immediately.
"Our investment portfolio is largely fixed income, with only 4 percent below investment grade with very limited exposure to equities, and no exposure to exotic structured products," said Tom Topinka, a Genworth spokesman.
Shares of all three stocks closed up Monday, along with the Standard & Poor's insurance index <.GSPINSC>, which ended up 0.26 percent at 371.51.
Overall, Devine said, life insurers' investment portfolios "appear to be in good shape," but said investors should watch the companies with higher exposures.
He said the risk in Prudential's closed block of policies, which are no longer sold but still on the books, was much higher than its regular investments.
Estimates of total losses on subprime mortgages range from $55 billion to as much as $100 billion, according to analysts. Analysts and investors worry because many of them are securitized and held in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) whose terms are not transparent. (Reporting by Ed Leefeldt)
chase is the biggest loser in the dow today though. interesting... i've also heard this...
NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Prudential Financial Inc. has the riskiest investment portfolio, including subprime exposure, among life insurers, while MetLife Inc. and Genworth Financial Inc. should be closely monitored, Citigroup analyst Colin Devine said in a report on Monday.
Devine said Prudential's <PRU.N> portfolio had the greatest exposure to high-risk assets at 13.8 percent, with MetLife <MET.N> close behind at 13.6 percent. Genworth <GNW.N> followed with 9 percent, he said.
The average level of high-risk assets for life insurers as a percentage of total investments was 7.8 percent for 15 publicly traded life insurers, Devine said.
The Citigroup analyst defined high risk as below investment grade bonds, equities, real estate and other partnerships and joint ventures.
Prudential and MetLife officials could not be reached for comment immediately.
"Our investment portfolio is largely fixed income, with only 4 percent below investment grade with very limited exposure to equities, and no exposure to exotic structured products," said Tom Topinka, a Genworth spokesman.
Shares of all three stocks closed up Monday, along with the Standard & Poor's insurance index <.GSPINSC>, which ended up 0.26 percent at 371.51.
Overall, Devine said, life insurers' investment portfolios "appear to be in good shape," but said investors should watch the companies with higher exposures.
He said the risk in Prudential's closed block of policies, which are no longer sold but still on the books, was much higher than its regular investments.
Estimates of total losses on subprime mortgages range from $55 billion to as much as $100 billion, according to analysts. Analysts and investors worry because many of them are securitized and held in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) whose terms are not transparent. (Reporting by Ed Leefeldt)
I also bought some EXM today. I like this stock a lot. IF this market turns north it should run. THe stock even shows some strength when the market is down.
I also bought some EXM today. I like this stock a lot. IF this market turns north it should run. THe stock even shows some strength when the market is down.
I just received a press release from one of my account reps from GREENPOINT MORTGAGE and it states that they are no longer originating any new residential mortgages!!!!! GREENPOINT is a subsidary of Capital One and an Alt-A lender. This one took me by surprise because GreenPoint has always had srtict guidelines and they do not do sub-prime financing......like many of you have stated no one is safe from going under.
Have a good day fellas!!!!
I just received a press release from one of my account reps from GREENPOINT MORTGAGE and it states that they are no longer originating any new residential mortgages!!!!! GREENPOINT is a subsidary of Capital One and an Alt-A lender. This one took me by surprise because GreenPoint has always had srtict guidelines and they do not do sub-prime financing......like many of you have stated no one is safe from going under.
I just received a press release from one of my account reps from GREENPOINT MORTGAGE and it states that they are no longer originating any new residential mortgages!!!!! GREENPOINT is a subsidary of Capital One and an Alt-A lender. This one took me by surprise because GreenPoint has always had srtict guidelines and they do not do sub-prime financing......like many of you have stated no one is safe from going under.
Have a good day fellas!!!!
I just received a press release from one of my account reps from GREENPOINT MORTGAGE and it states that they are no longer originating any new residential mortgages!!!!! GREENPOINT is a subsidary of Capital One and an Alt-A lender. This one took me by surprise because GreenPoint has always had srtict guidelines and they do not do sub-prime financing......like many of you have stated no one is safe from going under.
Further Fed cuts will occur, the only question is, are they not just pushing on a string? Until there is an honest evaluation of the amount of worthless paper out there, you are reduced to uncertainty and the knowledge that the odds are much greater that there will be a recession now than previously. A figure quoted recently was hedge funds control 10 trillion dollars worth of investments backed by only 1 trillion in real assets. Anyone seen this or another estimate?
Further Fed cuts will occur, the only question is, are they not just pushing on a string? Until there is an honest evaluation of the amount of worthless paper out there, you are reduced to uncertainty and the knowledge that the odds are much greater that there will be a recession now than previously. A figure quoted recently was hedge funds control 10 trillion dollars worth of investments backed by only 1 trillion in real assets. Anyone seen this or another estimate?
PS: Anyone have recommendations on charting/trading software, or sites they use? I have a few I use but a still not committed to any of them, so anything you feel strongly about I would like to know.
PS: Anyone have recommendations on charting/trading software, or sites they use? I have a few I use but a still not committed to any of them, so anything you feel strongly about I would like to know.
I'll be honest.....I flat out don't have the fucking balls to fade them and short their asses....I am terrified of some sort of bail-out package running my sorry ass over.
If I knew no bail-out package were coming, though, I'd beg, borrow, steal.....do whatever it took to amass as much capital as possible and throw every cent of it at a short sale, and then cover in the 10-12 range.
The money is so there for the taking......but the "BAIL-OUT PACKAGE" scares me, as it should.
CFC up today on light volume "for them."
I'll be honest.....I flat out don't have the fucking balls to fade them and short their asses....I am terrified of some sort of bail-out package running my sorry ass over.
If I knew no bail-out package were coming, though, I'd beg, borrow, steal.....do whatever it took to amass as much capital as possible and throw every cent of it at a short sale, and then cover in the 10-12 range.
The money is so there for the taking......but the "BAIL-OUT PACKAGE" scares me, as it should.
You're so right......by end of Sep/early Oct, the weak hands will have all folded.
The media will talk and blab incessantly about October crashes, Black Mondays, bad earnings............... (all to keep out the scared money)...............and the smart money will be buying every single dip during October, and then looking really smart to have done so by Oct '08.
Cheers
How're your J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets going to fare this season?
KOAJ-
You're so right......by end of Sep/early Oct, the weak hands will have all folded.
The media will talk and blab incessantly about October crashes, Black Mondays, bad earnings............... (all to keep out the scared money)...............and the smart money will be buying every single dip during October, and then looking really smart to have done so by Oct '08.
Cheers
How're your J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets going to fare this season?
bernake
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