August Stock Talk II

150 posts is enough to start a new thread..

Looks sick late here, might be a setup for a tradeable bounce tomorrow AM if they kill it on the open..

wall - not sure if you saw but GSCO is liquidating an Equity Opportunity fund...or selling a good piece of it

the natives are restless...up 300, then down 300 is not a healthy market

good article i found on cbs.marketwatch

for those of you who think that men/women...humans manage your money, think again...there are more and more math models running your money than you could possibly imagine

I think these larger firms and hedge funds are trying to stop any panic and slowly edge out and spread it out over a longer period of time.

They make good points about margin abilities..the FED really needs to reign in these margin percentages..it is what fueled the problem in the first place..

The most disturbing thing to me remains the fact that the professionals who are actually in the field that is being hammered still have no real certainty of how much damage is going to be done and to whom it will be done.
  Why chance it if you have locked in profits earlier in the year? If we have seen the top of this market for the year, and I think we may have, it is best to sit out the carnage and come in when the market has found a more solid footing, whenever, and at what price point it is.

Easy to say, how exactly do you know when the market has found a solid footing?  After we reach new highs again?

With that said, UP or DOWN tomorrow, guys?

I say UP.

Personally I do not need to know or bet where it will be tomorrow. I think overall the market will decline, but only after the heavy hitters come back from vacation will it be sorted out. Until then there will be a lot of churning going on.
 GL with whatever you decide to do, but personally, all I am going to do is watch and wait, and if certain select stocks  that I liked before this month are attractively priced, I will buy them if they get swept down with all the others in the panic
 .I buy stocks I intend to hold for ten to twenty years, and trade a small fraction of options, usually keyed by stock splits and earnings...

Well what are the certain select stocks?  Spill the beans!   

you think anyone wants to be long going into the weekend? no chance...if there is any buying its short covering.

check CFC headlines for more news

everytime you think about buying a "cheap" stock...another shoe drops

stay away from all financials

I agree with staying away from financials.

But I think everything is being thrown under the bus, good and bad.  Buy tech, healthcare and energy.

D2,

Large cap hasnt been thrown under the bus, small and mid have..still tons of stocks near all time highs.

Interesting that CFC says bad stuff while AIG says the other end...no problems for them..

I am a bit shocked about CFC..

Grinder,

You are Schwab right? A good friend of mines brother works for them in the valley here...

Man that pay sucks and being on the phones..well we both know how bad that sucks.

What keeps you there?

I remember when there werent early redemption fees and short term trading restrictions on MFs..how old does that make me?

I know it was discussed months back, but check out the action the last couple days with Cell Genesys (CEGE).  Up about 20% the last two days.  Maybe in the very early stages of one of its big runs.  They are still a ways off from approval but everything so far has been positive with GVAX and also some good news with partner Medarex has that stock up as well.  I don't like Dendreon, that company smells to me.  Like CEGE though.  Got a hunch it runs more in the near-term.

  Oh they are nothing special, ones that I just think will prosper and which will be around a long time. I like BRKB (the A shares are simply beyond my bank account) GE, Proctor and Gamble, Marathon Oil, Exxon.I have made some serious money on RIO (thank you George Soros) and ACH, (China Aluminum), but I took some profits there and keep a close eye on ACH. I like the long term demand for minerals and I happen to be a peak oil believer, but not a fanatic.

 I have ten percent of portfolio in GLD and gold mining shares.
 Speculative plays (every one should have a couple that are just gambles I think) are ARAY and MTSX. They are fun to look at but I have very little in them.I love ARAY's product line and domination for now in the field.
  I like dividends. No, I LOVE dividends, better than buybacks by a long shot. ( I make the exception for BRKB) Even though I am a bit guilty about it, I own Altria (MO).

  I like coal because we own a lot of it, and even the Democrats are going to eat their words against it, cause they need coal state votes come election day. I like and own BTU and Arch Coal, among others.

  I like MSFT and WMT, think they will be around long after I am pushing daisies.

  My overall feeling is as follows:the US is headed for a recession, the dollar is going to continue to pay the price for ridiculous federal spending. I see little let up in the demands generated by China, India and other emerging countries. I like companies that will feed the enormous demands for basic materials for the emerging markets. I think the US market, while still a very powerful trendsetter, is losing impact daily on world economic developments. I am not a doom and gloomer for the world, just do not like the prospects of a country that has essentially blown the greatest economic and military advantage the world has witnessed since the Roman Empire (all accomplished between 1945-2000:a mere two generations of mismanagement of resources, political, economic, and military. I see no evidence at all that the country has learned much from its recent past, much less world history.

  So, nothing particularly exciting. I am conservative and think that most money made from the stock market is ultimately derived from dividends and like seeing consistent increases in them year to year.

 Lastly, I do not claim to be a stock guru, and I am hear to read other opinions and to learn.Oh, and I do enjoy trading options and read everything I can get my hands on regarding them.

  Good luck and best wishes!!
 

 
 

PS: I hope someone soon writes a book on exactly how it was possible for Detroit to lose complete supremacy in the American car market in less than 50 years. Truly an amazing feat. If anyone had been asked in 1945 whether Detroit or Tokyo would be the most important place to be in automobiles, and responded Tokyo, I think they would have been immediately placed in a straightjacket and housed in an asylum. 

They should never have owned supremacy..their product has always sucked.

The only thing that kept them on top was a lack of foreign supply, and US sucker consumers who tolerated domestic produced garbage for years.

Until the US automakers break the unions, increase quality while not increasing prices, then the foreign automakers will keep dominating market share..it will get worse before better.

IMO of course.

Markets holding up remarkably well....so far.  Hell, we may even end green today.

Impressive move here..

Problem is its too early.

Two scenarios..either they take this sucker up 100 plus or it goes back near the lows.

I dont think it finishes flat..but the NAZ sure is strong today..

Hard to believe it'll finish higher.  Really hard to believe.

I'm sort of a rookie here, but the last month or so has to be some of the wackiest trading ever.

Well they sure are dressing it up early here..

TOO early..

AAPL, GOOG, CNQ etc moving.

One interesting thing I found on that slum yahoo message board is August 15th is the next date we get info from mortgage companies..9th and the 15th.

Me thinks you have to get positioned on relief rallies and sell them down. If CFC is saying things are tough that is good enough for me to think it continues..