April Stock Talk

 I think I am going to sell into any move up.Just not a believer, think the Google news is a bit too misleading. I cannot be a real bull in a climate that looks more and more like stagflation...we know the inflation is here, the stagnation will become apparent over the next few months.
 When I look at recent actions, it seems that

oops..that I can't type...err...anyway, I think a lot of bad news has been overlooked, while much made of what little good news there is. Not buying it at all for now.

C & MER are "basically out of business"? 

You have to be careful. I think you have 1. a lot of wishful thinking going on, trumping what is in fact really bad news (ie, C "only" wrote down 13 billion this quarter, what a relief!! LOL)
2. The USD eventually has to hit bottom, if only for the short term.(Long term, it has further, possibly much further to fall) If it corrects, it will knock some of the steam out of gold and commodities.However, the long term trends are clear:the price of goods is going to go up, sharply, for Americans, the age of cheap energy for Americans is over, and the US will pay a heavy price for its perpetual fiscal follies.

 However, as is often noted, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent. I think reality will catch up with this market and this country.When one considers $4 a gallon gas, natural gas prices going steadily north and think of what impact those two things alone will have on the bottom line of the average American family, already sitting in a house that is depreciating steadlly and getting progressively more expensive to heat and cool), it is hard for me to think transparently inflationary Fed moves does anything but worsen the situation.

 

 PS

 I would love to read a compelling argument opposing my estimate of the future of the US economy. and I mean that.
I watched the author of Twilight in the Desert make the case that it is good for the economy when oil prices rise, as it "transfers wealth to the working class." While some roughnecks may really prosper during this steep rise in energy, the rest of the working class will not be jumping for joy when they see their electric bill, the grocery bill, or the gas bill at the pump.

Vermeer

Oil/gas are the lowest amount of money, percentage wise, that Americans spend their money on.  I think it is only 2.8% of our overall expenses.   So I think gas getting in the $4 range isn't as scary as people are making it out to be.  Maybe I missed your point....sorry if I am way off topic here.

 

Agreed.  It's a bigger problem for business, especially certain businesses.  I think food price inflation is a bigger issue for consumers, and of course energy plays a role in that as well.  But we eat a lot more than we drive.

  And a problem for business does not translate to...consumers? Businesses don't eat those increases, they pass them along to you and me. And have a disagreeable tendency to do so after laying you off, to add insult to injury.
 
 And of course energy costs are only element of a disagreeable scene:unfunded pensions, health care costs, educational costs (both of which have no ground floor) continued deficit spending etc etc...what the US has conveniently ignored for the past 50 years is coming due, at an inopportune time. Throw in, say, new taxes to fund (name any one of thousands of bad ideas perclating through Congress) and...well...I think there is more twilight than dawn for the rank and file Americano.

sorry, usually my comments come out in the context of commercial real estate.  They are out of business in this sector.  They are making no new loans, and they are still sitting on BILLIONS that can't be sold.  I'd imagine they are making very few loans in other sectors as well.  these guys need to make loans to make money.  if they have no business pipeline, how is the worst over?

that was the basis of it

whereis,

MRK is not my cup of tea...any reason why you are considering it?

Tell us what you are wanting to do, gamble or invest, time horizon etc?

You short financial guys could STILL be right, but you are hitting the stocks near the BOTTOM, thus the liklihood for a strong bounce is high versus a year ago..you know what I mean.

C dumped the books again and every quarter they get to dump the books they are INCREASING the future reports down the road..especially if you think they are writing the assets down incorrectly (which I do).

Wall,

 I think they are also, but the question that I ask (and no one can even hazard a reasonable guess, and everyone admits that they are purely guessing, which is disturbing in itself) is when they  can correctly state valuations.

 I remain dubious about financials as I just do not see any real evidence that what the Fed has done will make business that has evaporated resurrect. No one aroud here thinks the RE market is back (most say it is terrible) and just calling around to friends in Atlanta and elsewhere, more of the same is reported or worse.

 I hope I am wrong, but I just keep getting the feeling that what the Fed will have accomplished is a repeat of the 70s. Inflation is very understated and of course you know the reason why they won't report real numbers as far as M3 goes.

  I think we are in for more bad news, seriously bad news, but could be wrong. But the problems I allude to are so systemic it makes  me wonder how they pull yet another rabbit out of the hat.And when you hear Democratic candidates thinking that raising capital gains taxes will actually increase, rather than decrease, revenues, you gotta wonder....

 Market ends the week on an up note, a bear market rally? Or a return to the good old days? I suspect the former...anyway, good to see some green.

DJIA

+228.87
	FTSE 100	6056.50	+76.10
	S&P 500	1390.33	+24.77
	HSI	24197.78	-61.18
	NASDAQ	2402.97	+61.14
	NIKKEI	13476.45	+78.15
	S&P 100	640.60	+12.20

For the week:

The Dow is up 523.94, or 4.25 percent.
The S&P is up 57.50, or 4.31 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 112.73, or 4.92 percent.

For the year:
The Dow is down 415.46, or 3.13 percent.
The S&P is down 78.03, or 5.31 percent.
The Nasdaq is down 249.31, or 9.40 percent.

Grinder,

Wow I got lucky on Friday..I had some very dormant April 75 calls on DRYS, still lost on the trade BUT I scraped some out when the stock was over 77. I feel quite fortunate to be honest.

Why JCI? I wouldnt worry about the dividend, it isnt much...20 cents in stock movement gets you the div for the year..haha

So why you in that stock? 10k invested there, I just dont see it. Are you in SINCE the drop or AFTER the drop? Technically this is an important area..she has failed this general area 4 times in the past..might be market related though.

Unless you think the stock NEEDS 20 months, go with the Jan 09s and save a few bucks. The 22.50s and 25s are only a buck and change over par and they will absorb a drop, not go point for point.

I agree with you about the mid term options though..I havent fared well going out a month at all, rather going out THREE has saved my bacon more than once..and it isnt sexy but it is much safer.

The only options I have now are the DRYS Jan 60s which are in the money from where I bot them intrinsically and up on top of that with the premium.

I have some cash sitting around that part of me wants to hold onto and see if the market takes it in the chops this week and we retrace a few days or a few weeks, then get back in at that point again.

Have you been reading up on DRYS lately? Some interesting stuff going on..their venture into Drillships could be HUGE..big time demand and short supply for deep water ship rigs that can move easily..

whereismyhat, how much risk are you willing to take and how important is the money to you overall?

 A follow up on the Lenny Dykstra picks discussed a while back...ouch!!! Steroids don't help in the options game...

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Dykstra/

Vermeer,

I predicted this long ago, anyone can buy options DITM without stops and win in a good market..the same people get KILLED in bear markets.

Saw that coming a mile away..notice TheStreet.com dropped him like a hot potato when it got ugly..stupid tout scums.

  Yup,

 You did call it.I will say, I went 14/15 on his calls during the bull market, and stopped following him when the bear was confirmed (at least to me). Several people wrote in to that column raising the same question and his responses never really could be called convincing.

  On another note  (I do not include the chart referred to, but it has M3 at 20%)

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): M-3 is booming
“What’s happening to M-3, the broad US money supply? The chart below is put out by A World of Possible Financial Futures, and I suspect it is quite accurate. It shows their calculation of M-3. The Greenspan Fed elected to hide the M-3 figures, and I guess to avoid embarrassing Greenspan, Bernanke has not brought the M-3 statistics back. C’mon, Bernanke, how about that transparency you were promising? At any rate, M-3 is booming.”