About time to go short folks...

Hope everyone enjoyed the ride, I sat out for the last 10% or so...this country is in deep poo.  Depression part deux.  GL. 

I think most folks in the financial world would agree that 1200 range S&P is the target.  Don't get in the business of calling tops (or bottoms for that matter).  Don't be fooled either...this will be a W shaped recovery IMO at the least, and it's going to take a long time to recover. 

so ur suggesting go short now or wait cause u think we will hit 1200?

Sasquatches1, I see you got in on Wallstreet cappers, stock market competiton at the beginning of the year and had DXO. Too bad that got delisted. It was a money maker with oil hitting $80.00 a few weeks ago.

I totally agree with your thoughts on the market and economy. I Sold my commodity stocks about two weeks ago and have since went net short. Still holding my gold and silver stocks though. Have been buying FAZ and TZA just to name a couple. I don't gamble much but I love trading stocks. Do you trade?

gamble04, i am suggesting to phase in to short positions now, at least that's how i typically do it.  you can't time the market, so who knows if it will even hit 1200, especially if everyone is thinking it will.  kind of like folks who said don't buy back in March. 

tigers56, love the calls earlier this year.  hated that they took DXO out, although I made some good money on it.  Love the gold and silver plays.  I haven't been able to trade too much this year, mostly due to being overwhelmed with work, but I do love to trade as long as I can monitor, unfortunately I haven't had the time this year.  Mostly holding and phasing out of long positions into cash with the unbelievable run, and now accumulating short holdings.     

Why did they delist DXO?

WSC, not sure why it was taken down but it happened a few months ago.

Sas, I agree with you on phasing into shorts. It's just to hard to pick a top.

Awesome interactive food stamp map on the NY Times site...hardly the stuff a consumer driven economy wants to see

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html

Getting closer...

i remember reading back in march, when the sky really was falling, that S&P was going back up to 1136 before the market started going back down again. just some crazy talk from the same folk who have been predicting events correctly at insane pace.  fibbonaci's.  been keeping my eye on this and boy the last two months of 09 it seemed like the PPT was afraid to take it that high,,,,,,,broke thru to kick off the new year   what's next?

Bullish sentiment has been extremely high as of late (>80%), it means go the other way...which is what happened.  Also, the volume on this entire ride upwards was WEAK...look at the volume on the sell side this week.  Some major folks were dumping.  SPY broke trendline and 50 day MA. 

Gettin closer folks...1200 is nigh.  1200-1250 range the ultimate destination. 

Dude, you've got to admit you've been wrong for the last almost 4 months.  Market making new highs.

Beautiful...phasing out of remaining longs and adding to "long" short positions.

Looks like I was right with the 1200-1250 call...and a hell of a ride down it was.    So far.  Expect a bounce 1050-1060 area.  If that doesn't hold, this is going to 950.  Good luck.

Remember this at all times-

THE MARKET CAN STAY IRRATIONAL A LOT LONGER THAN YOU CAN STAY SOLVENT

HOLY SHIT!!!!! 11% OF CHILDREN IN MY COUNTY ARE ON FOOD STAMPS!!!!!! AND TOTAL FOOD STAMP RECIPIENTS ARE UP 27% SINCE 2007.

FUCK THATS DEPRESSING... DONT REALLY FEEL FOR THE ADULTS, BUT THE KIDS. WHAT DID THEY DO WRONG? NOT THERE FAULT THEY WERE BORN POOR OR TO LAZY PARENTS.

I GOTTA START LOCKING MY CAR AND MAKING SURE OUR HOUSE I LOCKED AT NIGHT.

FUCK!!!! IF THAT CHART DOESNT SEND CHILLS DOWN YOUR SPINE I DONT KNOW WHAT WILL.

Yeah, there's a ton of debt out there....so much that you could argue for something like Dow 4800 right now.

What else can the central banks do besides print money willy nilly and keep rates low?

Hate to say this, but it's true----really the only way out of the world's debt mess is a gigantic population purge.  I ain't talking a few million----I'm talking a couple of billion.  That's really how horrific the future is while we stay on our current unsustainable pace.  Man is too stupid and greedy to just wake up tomorrow, or right now, and change his ways.  So it will take Mother Nature (who is always in ultimate control) to rectify the situation and give the world a rigorous and vicious "correction."

People who are like 40ish and maybe a little below----you can kiss your 401s and retirement plans good-bye.  Let alone social security-----that inevitable confession will make Bernie Madoff look like a 4 year old punk kid who stole a packet of chewing gum from Drug Fair.

clay what do you recomend doing with my 401k then.  i had almost 90 now im below 80.  im 33

Hate to say this, but it's true----really the only way out of the world's debt mess is a gigantic population purge.  I ain't talking a few million----I'm talking a couple of billion.  That's really how horrific the future is while we stay on our current unsustainable pace.  Man is too stupid and greedy to just wake up tomorrow, or right now, and change his ways.  So it will take Mother Nature (who is always in ultimate control) to rectify the situation and give the world a rigorous and vicious correction.


MOTHER NATURE? UH NO!!!!    LETS TRY THE RICHEST TEN PERCENT OF THE RICHEST ONE PERCENT IN THE WORLD. THEY HAVE ALL THE POWER TO DO SUCH A THING AND MY DAD AND I ARE PRETTY CONVINCED THAT THEY STARTED A LONG TIME AGO. MERCURY IN TEETH FILLING, FLUORIDE IN WATER TO POSSIBLY "PREVENT CAVITIES". AND YOU WONDER WHY DENTISTS HAVE THE HIGHEST SUICIDE RATE OF ANY OCCUPATION.

DEPRESSING REALLY. BUT WHAT CAN YOU DO. THATS HOW CIVALIZATION HAS ALWAYS BEEN RUN. SELECT FEW CONTROL AND KILL WHAT THEY WANT WHEN THEY WANT. IF ANYTHING IM GLAD IM IN AMERICA CAUSE AT LEAST THIER KILLING US SOFTLY. AFRICA AND OTHER THIRD WORLD COUNTRY ARE GOING TO BE THE FIRST TO BE KILLED ALL AT ONCE INSTEAD OF NICE AND SLOW. THEY SERVE NO PURPOSE OTHER THAN TAKING ARE MONEY TO KEEP THEM ALIVE.

BELIEVE WHAT YOU WANT. THE ONLY WAY I GET ANY SLEEP AT NIGHT IS BY KNOWING I CANT DO SHIT ABOUT IT. WERE ALL JUST PAWNS IN SOMEONES GAME.

ALL THE WORLDS A STAGE.

Fear Mongering can make folks do lots of irrational things, too.

  Best bet is to stay the course, and invest in high-dividend stocks.  Take advantage of depressed price levels in "solid" stocks.  I don't think anyone here disagrees that debt levels around the world are at unprecedented levels. 

We better get used to very high levels of taxation in our country's future.   Higher Taxation at the business level, taxation at the personal level, increased taxation on capital gains, dividends, etc.     

I forecast many years of tough sledding and a sideways moving market... but not a 60% depression part deux. 

Your 401(k) is not a trading vehicle, and should have a long-term investment goal for most folks.  You act irrationally now, and you will pay for it in the years ahead.  How many of you made irrational decisions at the market lows in March of last year,  and sold out of fear? 

401s and peeps' retirement plans....make me laugh.  How are you going to reconcile this debt? Right, you can't. 

What do I suggest you do with your 401?  Plan like you'll never, ever, ever see that money again.  Would I be adding to it now?  Hell no.  Take that money you're putting in to that fraudulent vehicle and use it to buy land where you can grow your own food.

Higher taxation?  Where are you going to then get the money to pay your personal bills?  If you're right, then this country is headed to a massive civil war.

Let's face it, the economic future in this country is as dismal as you can get.

Now you're getting me started.  Look how farking stupid our energy policy is!!!! 

The only thing positive about the future is that many are negative about it.......

We couldn't be more screwed. 

Nouriel Roubini on Cnn's 'Your $$$$" May 23rd.....

"ROUBINI: In my view, it could be more than a correction; we might be headed towards a bear market for a number of reasons. First of all, there's a risk meaningfully of a double dip recession in the Euro zone, growth in the Euro zone was going to be less than 1 percent, before the shock of Greece, now Greece and Portugal and consumer confidence and investor confidence, the economies in the Euro zone are going to slow down. The fear is that China is also weakening and the United States is currently more than it could be in the second half of the year. There could be a perfect storm in the second half of the year where some are going to double dip, and there is a slowdown of growth also in China and emerging markets and the markets are becoming nervous about this."

ref: https://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1005/22/cnnitm.01.html

Agree with Roubini about the fact that the economy is screwed basically forever, but the reality is that the US has been in a bear market since March 2000. 

All the manipulated crap in between was nothing but a bear market rally.

All the manipulated crap in between was nothing but a bear market rally.

you can make a good argument for that esp counting the "Dot Bombs" and related tech stocks, claycourt. MOST never recovered abywhere close to their exagerated prices in 1999 and more than half are OUT of BUSINESS.