Posted:
#1
The market slowly increased and then went nutz in Sept/Nov 2017 till late Jan. If your invested and added every month in whatever vehicle you use, you are not burned. The S&P 500 is sitting at about where it was in Nov +/-2550. Let's all agree, the DOW is not a good indicator.
Those who really got hurt are the ones who recently piled in. It's gonna go lower, it ALWAYS overshoots both to the upside and downside.
The dust will settle, earnings are strong, tax cut to 21% hasn't shown it's face and on and on. Oh yeah, wage inflation, aka bond market eyeing 3% and talk of a 4th rate increase in 2018. All from a Jan report which said wages increased more than expected to 0.3% (which spells inflation. Inflation spells rate increase.) 2.9% on an annual basis. I can't find what was expected, guessing 0.2 for Jan.
Anyone, anyone, any talking head mention the fact that most of those tax cut related bonus's hit payrolls in Jan 2018? Bueller, Bueller? Think about it. If you make $100k and got an extra $1k bonus in Jan, your wage increase was 12% for Jan. Make $50k and its 24% in a single month.
Add them all up and guess what? Bang! A slight increase in the overall wage inflation number. Anyone want to venture a guess what happens with the Feb wage number?
Add in the fact that the dollar was in the tank causing oil to increase in Jan which is inflationary. Well, both of those have done an abrupt about face.
I can see the headlines coming. "the Jan numbers were more than expected but Feb is inline with low wage increases and tame inflation. The Bond Market has cooled. Waiting for the March numbers for direction"
Idiots
If I only knew when to move more money out of cash. I guess slowly every month, that always works long term.
I may have over simplified this and could be wrong. It's my story and i'm sticking to it.
Great. As of this rant, "down goes Frazier" yet again.
Cheers,
GP
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