#8 Verrazano sure looks tough to beat in this one, but what strategy will Todd Pletcher employ? He’s 9th in the Derby point’s standings and that should be enough to get him into the field. So will Todd let him out, or take it easy today? Verrazano is likely to go for the lead and if he does, and I think Todd will go for it.
Having won his 3 lifetime starts by a total of 26 lengths and venturing out of Florida for the first time, he stretches to 1-1/8, but that shouldn’t be a problem. ML odds of 4-5 aren’t favorable to the bettor, but this is a race to use in handicapping for the big one in May. He’s following the pattern of other Pletcher TC contenders Uncle Mo and Eskanydria at the dawn of the Derby.
So who can beat Verrazano?
Let’s start with #2 Normandy Invasion for Chad Brown with Castellano up. This is it for him in that he needs the points to get into the Derby. While NI finished 5th in the Risen Star, he lost by just 1-1/2 lengths and hit his second best career Beyer at 91. He got off slow and bobbled going 7 wide. If you dismiss trouble, he should be flying near the end at 5-2 ML. Check his work on March 31. He’s ready.
Like Verrazano, #5 Vyjack is undefeated. He’s 4 for 4 and for his backers all of his races have been in New York, including two at the Big A. He makes the stretch to 1-1/8 and looks to be able to take to it. I’m not totally sold, but the winner of this race might be dependent on what happens upfront. Note that trainer Rodriguez is coming off a 20-day suspension, if that means anything to you regarding the conditioning of late.
#4 Elnaawi is, for me, the most intriguing horse in the field. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin with the capable Eddie Castro on top, he’s improving losing to Vyjack by 2-3/4 in the Gotham after getting bumped early. His only win was on the lead, but he has excellent stalking ability based on his other two races and breeding out of Street Sense. A must consider for the upset at 12-1 ML.
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