Santa Anita Park - 11/1 and 11/2

Well done atlass. Thank you!!!!

Well done atlass.

Sorry. I studder. Kidding.

race 10

G1 BC Distaff F&M 3YO and Up 9F

3 WP

7/1 on the board.  recency, pace, pattern.  obviously she needs to pop a lifetime high here and she's 5/7 lifetime, lightly raced, and 2nd off the bench off a pretty cozy/easy G1 win.  doesn't need to come from the clouds which as you can see is imperative on this concrete surface/conveyor belt.  i'm giving her a shot to give this a good fight and make some noise.  0.75 units. 

as I mentioned i was passing this one but the potential value here on the 3 is enticing.  smallest play of the day.  even if the surface carries them around if the 4 and 5 beat the hell out of each other maybe someone can roll on by in the lane if they aren't trying to close too much ground.

 

2nd at 7/1.  i felt this horse ran really, really well.  oh well.  couldn't catch the horse that had that lead at the furlong pole. 

race 1 - winner paid 4/1

race 5 - horse eased basically.  something went wrong.

race 7 - horse took two bad steps on the turn and checked and was done from that point.

race 8 - got blasted off the track late by the 2nd choice that went wire to wire.  tried to make a move and fell apart.  easy now to say bad bet but not every so called "speed" horse ran big today but Goldencents did so.

race 9 - winner at 7/1.

race 10 - 2nd at 7/1.

ROI +190%

Try for better decisions tomorrow.  Flip flopped a few including the 4 in race 7 who won at 6/1.  Splids was on the 4. 

My notes on the surfaces:

Turf - very, very fair and extremely fast.  I love it personally.

Dirt - the thing that stands out to me about the bias is not the times it is the huge challenge it seems to be for anyone to make up ground.  i point to race 8 as a reference.  the final time was slow for a G1 with older horses in my view but the opening half was a real sizzler.  so basically the winner blasted out, opened up, and held on.  but in the BC Distaff a horse that was stalking finished 1st and 2nd but all in all nobody came from more than a couple lengths back at the quarter pole to even hit the board.

saturday

race 3

G3 F&M 3YO and up *6.5F (Downhill Turf)

10 WP

8/1 ml.  recency (straight and reverse/fresh), late speed, pattern, pace, distance, stamina.  i'm taking a shot here not unlike yesterday's first race where i see this race potentially setting up for a horse to mow down the "speed" in that final furlong.  i like the bold placement here into open company in a G3 after a vigorous spring/summer campaign in restricted stakes.  like how mullins spruced her up since August 18th as she tailed off a bit and brings her back today with five strong drills in tow.  mullins is 16% off a 61-180 break, 21% going route/sprint, and 21% on turf and 18% in graded stakes.  she is a bit light on figs sprinting on the green versus the favs in here but since those spins she has improved meaningfully.  also fired fresh last fall off a break going down the hill and again this April off a break (sprinting on the lawn in inglewood not down this hill).  her figs recently going two turns on the lawn in my view make her very competitive here and she was in a nice stalking position and should not necessarily have to come from the clouds today.  that speed/pace/stamina combo around two turns could potentially have her flying down the lane full of gas in the tank and energy.  big field, very tough race, i'll give her a shot to mow them all down late.  1.0 units.   

in this race i see the 1, 3, 6, 7, 12, and 13 getting attention at the windows.  maybe the price on this 10 sticks at a solid level.  pretty tough crew here so we shall see.  the 4 is interesting as a big bomb.  never been on the green or the hill but looks pointed for this specifically. 

race 4 - i have two leans but i want to watch the replay of race 2.  race 2 is 7/8ths on the main track with a huge chalkie and there may be things to learn from that about any alterations/tweaks to the surface.  i'm not expecting any big change but i want to see that replay.

dud.  too far back and didn't fire.  13-3 finish.

race 4

G1 BC Juvenile Fillies 2YO 8.5F

6 WP

15/1 on the tote.  recency, pace, pattern.  0.75 units. 

race 5

G1 BC F&M Turf 3YO and Up 10F (Turf)

2 WP

4/1 on the board.  recency, pattern, surface.  1.5 units.

2nd at 9/2.  higher bet just missed

pulled up.  three brutal ones for me sorry fellas.  let's get one on the dirt huh?

race 6

G1 BC F&M Sprint 3YO and Up 7F

5 WP

8/1 on the board.  recency, pace, speed, surface.  break and first two furlongs are crucial here.  if she gets out clean and settles in maybe just behind two others she should fire.  if she faces too much pressure she'll probably not fire well.  1.0 units. 

race 7

G1 BC Turf Sprint 3YO and up *6.5F (Downhill Turf)

6 WP

12/1 on the board.  recency, late speed, pattern.  1.0 units.

race 8

G1 BC Juvenile 2YO 8.5F

4 WP

11/1 on the board.  pattern, pace, distance, stamina.  0.75 units.

heavy dose of chalk here five more to go. 

I would say you are due for one atlas, hope you get it this race.

I figured you were due as well. Nice W/P/S...so thank you!

santa anita

10/1 winner

hey i won a race on dirt

liked how he won his first spin going two turns where he opened up a solid lead and then just cruised.  then baffert rested him and drilled him very sharply and pointed him right here.  doesn't work every time but especially with these young fellas the rest can help a lot and let them grow.  also was pretty close to the pace down at the beach, move to dirt could only help, and he's bred to go to 10F or more.

Good job to get this one