One pick for Dubai - UAE Derby - 9.5 furlongs , Tapeta, $2 million

#7 Daddy Long Legs   

Has great connections owners Magnier and Tabor and a great trainer Aiden O'Brien.   I'm not thrilled about the jock but O'Brien must think he's OK.

I've studied this race a long time and I really like his chances.   Throw out his last race the BC Juvenile which was on dirt.   That's not his surface.   His surface is turf and turf horses do well on Tapeta synthetic which this race is on.    Lucky Chappy and DaddyNoseBest ran their asses off on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real.   And they were pretty much turf horses.

The #13 Wrote is probably going to be the favorite, and Daddy Long Legs beat him easily last year.   I don't like Wrote's post position in this race.    Daddy Long Legs is in post 7 and should be able to find a good spot up front in my opinion, hopefully close to the rail.  The #1 and #2 don't break so that helps.     I think his early speed is actually pretty good compared to most of these.

I believe that O'Brien thinks this horse is just as good as Wrote or better.   After all he could have put Daddy Long Legs in the BC Juvenile Turf with Wrote instead of the BC Juvenile.   Daddy Long Legs was only 12-1 in the BC Juvenile.   Some people liked his chances in that race.   That was obviously a strong field in that race most of which is going to be in the Kentucky Derby.

Read a statement from O'Brien that all of his horses have been training well in Ireland, the weather has been mild, so I expect Daddy Long Legs to be ready.

Another one of the favorites, the Australian horse , Helmut, on the outside has a bad post and is carrying 10 more pounds than all but one other horse.   The trainer has been very honest and has been saying he might have a hard time in this race with the weight and post, and his current form looks questionable also.   This is also that trainer's (Snowden) first International race outside Australia.

#1 Lucky Chappy and the #2 Burano don't break well and I see them having a rough time from the inside.  They probably are going to have to come from way back and come around from the outside.  It's a short run to the first turn at this distance at Meydan.   Part owner Mark Belling said on the radio that Lucky Chappy has been pointed to this race though.   This is his Kentucky Derby.

The two fillies #4 and #10 I don't give much chance against males.  The Argentinian filly #4 is also carrying 6 pounds more than everybody and is running on sythetic for the first time.  Good luck with that.

The Canadian horse #3 Maritimer might have a shot but he's been beating Canadian breds up at Woodbine and in his one big time race the G3 Summer he finished 4th.

The British horses probably have decent chances,  Mickdaam, Entifaadha, Red Duke.   But I rate them behind Aiden O'Briens horses.

Daddy Long Legs has the highest Racing Post Rating of any of the horses in this race for his performance in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge G2 last year.   He got a 114 for that race.  That's not a speed rating it's a performance rating.

Good Luck if you decide to play this horse, I like his chances but nothing is guaranteed in gambling.  Could be close to 10-1 in the odds.    

Equibase Past Performances for Dubai

DRF Past Performances for Dubai

8) YANG TSE KIANG

Distance and surface are probably not going to be a problem but the level of competition he's been facing might be, although the 106 and 104 Racing Post Ratings in his last two races are actually pretty solid for this field. Never been out of the money in 5 races but only $80,000 in earnings. Won easily last time vs 3 other horses first off a long layoff at today's distance on Polytrack not Tapeta in a $42.7 allowance in France. Should be ready to fire. Was close in a Group 3 in Europe at 9 furlongs on turf. The only Gelding in the field. Carrying 9 pounds less than his last race an easy win at this distance.  Hasn't raced in big fields. POOR TRAINER , AVERAGE JOCKEY 

5) GENTEN

Wasn't great in his two Graded/Group races on turf. Only wins are a MSW and an Allowance at 7 and 7.5 furlongs. Distance might be a problem. 1.5 furlongs farther than he's ever gone. Never raced on synthetic. Trainer doesn't look horrible and jockey looks good. One Racing Post rating of 98 not great. Been racing in big fields. I'd say NO because of the distance, class, and surface problems.

9) KINGLET

He was successful twice in four outings in Britain last year and has raced three times this term. The colt ran on well in the second of them to take the Group 3 UAE 2,000 Guineas at Meydan but finished mid-division last time out over this distance.

"Trainer Mahmoud Al Zarooni said: “Kinglet was very disappointing last time and never really got going. We had doubts at the distance before the race but he was beaten a long way out and we feel he is worth another chance. He won the UAE 2,000 Guineas after all but obviously comes into this race with some questions to answer.”

Surface doesn't look like a problem but distance might be, trainer even says so. Highest Racing Post rating is 107. Great jockey, looks like a pretty good trainer. Form might be questionable. Last race was bad. Mid pack to rear running style from what I can tell. Just held off Mickdaam at a mile in his best race. I'd say NO based on DISTANCE and FORM. 4th race off layoff.

10) FALLS OF LORA

Filly with no early speed going against males. She tried males twice and got destroyed. Second off long layoff. Distance, surface, and form look good but CLASS is a big problem. NO

1) LUCKY CHAPPY

He made a real strong move from last place in his last race the G3 El Camino Real Derby 9 furlongs at Golden Gate on Tapeta (same surface here). Lost by a nose to Daddy Nose Best who went from that race to with the Sunland Derby. The El Camino Real wasn't a very strong race though. There was probably only two other decent horses in that race, Daddy Nose Best and Handsome Mike. The problem though is that he's a very slow breaking horse in post 1. How's he going to win this race? He's probably got to drop back and come all the way around or weave his way thru the field. I don't like that scenario. It's also a short run to the first turn in this race and he might encounter some problems with horses coming in on him. He's been pointed to this race though, according to Mark Belling (He said it on the radio). This is his Kentucky Derby. The #13 in this race, Wrote, beat Lucky Chappy by 3.5 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill.

“He’s going to have to step up because he hasn’t run against this deep of a group yet,” Motion said. “The other problem we’ve had at home is he always tends to break a step slow and I’m hoping here it won’t matter as much because they don’t break the way the American horses break. I think if he runs the way he’s been running at home, he should be competitive.”  

2) BURANO

Broke his maiden in his last race, a turf race going a mile at this same race track in Dubai. He got crushed 8th of 9 in his one race on synthetic two starts back at this racetrack a Group 3 stakes going a mile. Two horses that beat him in that race are in this race. And two others are on the also eligible list.  Another problem is that if you read the comments of his races, he's a slow breaking horse stuck inside. Seems like he likes to run somewhere from midpack to rear. Might encounter some of the same problems Lucky Chappy might have. Other than his maiden win in his last, his Racing Post Ratings aren't very high so he probably wasn't in with much in those races and he didn't do very well in them either. Has a good jockey and a decent trainer but I'll pass.

appreciate the insight and the work you did to examine this race...considering its more work than I would/ know how to do...I will probably be on your band wagon and accept how the cards fall

3) MARITIMER

Who's he been running against up in Canada is the question. Finished 4th beaten 4.25 lengths behind Finale, Excaper,Daddy Nose Best, in the Grade 3 Summer at Woodbine on turf, probably his highest rated race. Distance and Surface don't look like a problem. One of his stakes wins was for Canadian breds only as was one of his seconds in stakes. Should be able to get good position, nice early speed. New connections and new surroundings (Dubai) since his last race. Best races have come against Canadian horses. Poor trainer and jockey, both under 10%. Trainer only 4% on synthetic surfaces 114 starts. Not to win , maybe gimmicks.

That's the way I roll man.   I'm not an action junkie.   I enjoy the puzzle.   

I also drink a lot of coffee.   

4) BALADA SALE

A filly from Argentina carrying 6 pounds more than everybody but one other horse. All her wins have been on dirt. Her one race on turf she finished out of the money 7th of 7 beaten 16.5 lengths. Turf horses usually do the best on Tapeta. I can't remember the last horse from Argentina that did well in an International Stakes race. And a filly who doesn't seem to like turf, never raced on synthetic, carrying more weight and going against males?   Not for me.

14) HELMET

Probably the class of the race but some major problems here.

All you have to do is listen to his trainer on this one.

Aside from the treacherous gate, the unfamiliar artificial Tapeta surface, the weight (131 lbs) and the testing 1900 meters distance, Helmet must also prove he has "come up".

His two Melbourne runs at the autumn carnival - blocked in first-up (1st off layoff) in the C.S. Hayes Stakes, then a tardy beginner in the Australian Guineas - were inconclusive at best.

Helmet, who has not won beyond 1600 meters (8 furlongs) and failed at his only middle-distance test in the Cox Plate, worked over 2000 meters yesterday. Snowden conceded the weight scale (Carrying 10 pounds more than almost all of these) would make Helmet's task difficult.

"It's a bit sobering, but you have to deal with it," he said, adding the barrier (Outside in post 14) was also tricky.

"The problem is it's such a short run to the first turn, so he might be wide for a while because there are apparently two horses that will push forward from the gates, so we can't be coming out crazy (fast). Our chance to push forward might come around the back of the track, but we'll see."


This is also the first time this trainer has ever raced a horse outside of Australia.

“This is the first time I’ve raced horses internationally, it’s a big learning curve for me, but it is just fantastic to be involved in such a great event.”  


Trainer Peter Snowden said: “Helmet has a few little issues – minor things which can affect his performance. For example on his last start in Australia, just as the starter pressed the button, he popped about two feet in the air. While he was in the air, the field has jumped and he was back in last, which is not the position this horse likes to be in. He is best breaking well and racing on the speed. I have always thought Helmet will get this sort of trip and he has  adapted to the surface well.”

I'll put the rest up later if I get a chance.   Or tommorrow morning.   

Dont really like to back a horse that has not raced this year but neither has Wrote.So for the better return I 'll be going with Maritimer.

Nice one!

great capping Grey.  Nice job

Hound breaking it down.....very  nice  

Nice hound $22.80. Unreal.

Thanks,do u like royal delta?

                 great call on daddy long legs greyhound

Nice score Greyhound !