Hi Bull, this old corpse is still kicking, no compaints, hope all is well with you too.
I threw out Pyro because of that clunker he threw in, plus, one run horses like him don't fit my Derby handicapping, I just don't have a gut feeling for him, yet a lot of colleagues are high on him, I'll let him beat me if he has it in him. I was just checking the odds on my 2 picks, Colonel John is 7-2, which is good, I'm not to thrilled about Court Vision being only 8-1, and the big surprise as of this moment is Big Brown at 5-1, this surprises me, enjoy the race, could be a dandy if the speed up front goes 1:11 or faster, otherwise, you might get some real crappy results, later.
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Hi Bull, this old corpse is still kicking, no compaints, hope all is well with you too.
I threw out Pyro because of that clunker he threw in, plus, one run horses like him don't fit my Derby handicapping, I just don't have a gut feeling for him, yet a lot of colleagues are high on him, I'll let him beat me if he has it in him. I was just checking the odds on my 2 picks, Colonel John is 7-2, which is good, I'm not to thrilled about Court Vision being only 8-1, and the big surprise as of this moment is Big Brown at 5-1, this surprises me, enjoy the race, could be a dandy if the speed up front goes 1:11 or faster, otherwise, you might get some real crappy results, later.
Dutrow's crew hasn't hit the window yet. We all know what bet down looks like when Dutrow is in a race. I don;t think you'll see 8/5 but he won't be 3-1 either.
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Dutrow's crew hasn't hit the window yet. We all know what bet down looks like when Dutrow is in a race. I don;t think you'll see 8/5 but he won't be 3-1 either.
I am betting that Big Brown is not a freak. He will need to be from the 20 hole with all good speed in the race and most likely a wet track at best.
The best horse Big Brown has beat is 30 to 1 at the derby, he has never seen this kinda speed and class before and coming from the 20 hole that horse is gonna wonder what the hell is happening, he fizzles at about a mile or so and burns a hell of a lot of favourite bettors money. Just like almost all of the Derby favourites in years past.
If Big Brown pulls this off, I will bow down to him, he would be a triple crown threat but my handicapping tells me otherwise for this one race anyway
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I am betting that Big Brown is not a freak. He will need to be from the 20 hole with all good speed in the race and most likely a wet track at best.
The best horse Big Brown has beat is 30 to 1 at the derby, he has never seen this kinda speed and class before and coming from the 20 hole that horse is gonna wonder what the hell is happening, he fizzles at about a mile or so and burns a hell of a lot of favourite bettors money. Just like almost all of the Derby favourites in years past.
If Big Brown pulls this off, I will bow down to him, he would be a triple crown threat but my handicapping tells me otherwise for this one race anyway
Dutrow's crew hasn't hit the window yet. We all know what bet down looks like when Dutrow is in a race. I don;t think you'll see 8/5 but he won't be 3-1 either.
So true HB when they fire it is like a sherman tank..but it is derby day and no one is affecting that pool
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Quote Originally Posted by HolyBull:
Dutrow's crew hasn't hit the window yet. We all know what bet down looks like when Dutrow is in a race. I don;t think you'll see 8/5 but he won't be 3-1 either.
So true HB when they fire it is like a sherman tank..but it is derby day and no one is affecting that pool
Ok guys, I handicapped the race after getting out of work for a little over an hour, here's what I found: The Churchill Downs Ky. Derby is Race 10 and there are at least 5 speed horses that can really cook Big Brown if the race is run right, they are #11 Z Humor; #13 Bob Black Jack; #17 Cowboy Cal; #18 Recapturetheglory & #20 Big Brown. I would love to see a 1:11 or lower for the 3/4's and I think it would give my 2 horses a good chance of winning. I don't know what they're going to do with the filly #5 Eight Belles, I don't know how they can't send her to the front and see how far she'll go, not very far I think, but she has 2 negatives, she's never been in this kind of class and jockey Saez is going to have his stomach in his throat, again, I think he's in over his head. My Picks are:
#4 Court Vision & #10 Colonel John
If they get a good pace, they'll be coming at the end. If you use my exacta strategy of wheeling up & down, the cost of the wager will be $76, you would exacta box #4 & #10 with all, that's all there is to it, naturally I'll be wagering more, but if you have a small bankroll and want to wager, this is the best I can do for you. So, those are my picks, good luck, I'll post the results after the race, although that shouldn't be necessary because the majority of the world watches this race. I'm chucking #9 Pyro & #20 out, sure they can win, but I came up with #4 & #10, that's who I'm playing.
Pyro may certainly hit the exactor with that finishing kick of his, if he is back in form, also has a nice spot in the 9 hole. He can see the whole race develop before him and make a move near the end. If he goes of at 4 or 5 to one with a long shot in front or behind it will pay very well. I feel the race is setting up nicely for him now that its wet and Big Brown is so wide
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Quote Originally Posted by daneish:
Ok guys, I handicapped the race after getting out of work for a little over an hour, here's what I found: The Churchill Downs Ky. Derby is Race 10 and there are at least 5 speed horses that can really cook Big Brown if the race is run right, they are #11 Z Humor; #13 Bob Black Jack; #17 Cowboy Cal; #18 Recapturetheglory & #20 Big Brown. I would love to see a 1:11 or lower for the 3/4's and I think it would give my 2 horses a good chance of winning. I don't know what they're going to do with the filly #5 Eight Belles, I don't know how they can't send her to the front and see how far she'll go, not very far I think, but she has 2 negatives, she's never been in this kind of class and jockey Saez is going to have his stomach in his throat, again, I think he's in over his head. My Picks are:
#4 Court Vision & #10 Colonel John
If they get a good pace, they'll be coming at the end. If you use my exacta strategy of wheeling up & down, the cost of the wager will be $76, you would exacta box #4 & #10 with all, that's all there is to it, naturally I'll be wagering more, but if you have a small bankroll and want to wager, this is the best I can do for you. So, those are my picks, good luck, I'll post the results after the race, although that shouldn't be necessary because the majority of the world watches this race. I'm chucking #9 Pyro & #20 out, sure they can win, but I came up with #4 & #10, that's who I'm playing.
Pyro may certainly hit the exactor with that finishing kick of his, if he is back in form, also has a nice spot in the 9 hole. He can see the whole race develop before him and make a move near the end. If he goes of at 4 or 5 to one with a long shot in front or behind it will pay very well. I feel the race is setting up nicely for him now that its wet and Big Brown is so wide
To pay $76 for a $1 exacta ticket doesn't seem like a very good investment. If you even hit, there are so many combinations that would return less than $76, and VERY FEW that would return more than $200. You'd be better off w/ a $38-box 4/10 and hoping you get lucky and cash for $2k+. I think you're handicapping is solid, but the betting strategy is not good. Best of luck.
20-8-4-19 is my super. GL
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To pay $76 for a $1 exacta ticket doesn't seem like a very good investment. If you even hit, there are so many combinations that would return less than $76, and VERY FEW that would return more than $200. You'd be better off w/ a $38-box 4/10 and hoping you get lucky and cash for $2k+. I think you're handicapping is solid, but the betting strategy is not good. Best of luck.
Hey xxking, go back to my result threads and see why I wager this way. One idiot tore up his tickets while I wheeled 6 horses up & down in the exacta the year Barbaro won. I wagered over $400 in exactas and still made a profit of over $230, this is the way I bet and done so for many years, no changes here.
The Stu, I always take in consideration the chance of mud or slop, doesn't usually affect my picks.
Thanks for the support guys.
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Hey xxking, go back to my result threads and see why I wager this way. One idiot tore up his tickets while I wheeled 6 horses up & down in the exacta the year Barbaro won. I wagered over $400 in exactas and still made a profit of over $230, this is the way I bet and done so for many years, no changes here.
The Stu, I always take in consideration the chance of mud or slop, doesn't usually affect my picks.
To pay $76 for a $1 exacta ticket doesn't seem like a very good investment. If you even hit, there are so many combinations that would return less than $76, and VERY FEW that would return more than $200. You'd be better off w/ a $38-box 4/10 and hoping you get lucky and cash for $2k+. I think you're handicapping is solid, but the betting strategy is not good. Best of luck.
20-8-4-19 is my super. GL
your right i have a friend that plays like this you have to be more selective and go for it
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Quote Originally Posted by XxKingDizzlexX:
To pay $76 for a $1 exacta ticket doesn't seem like a very good investment. If you even hit, there are so many combinations that would return less than $76, and VERY FEW that would return more than $200. You'd be better off w/ a $38-box 4/10 and hoping you get lucky and cash for $2k+. I think you're handicapping is solid, but the betting strategy is not good. Best of luck.
20-8-4-19 is my super. GL
your right i have a friend that plays like this you have to be more selective and go for it
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Colonel John has been in the exacta all 6 races
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