Derby Thoughts

Vetdrm sorry for your loss. 

@Midnight

 Was going to bring that up about final gambit. I watched those last two, the allowance and the Jack Ruby Stakes. Not sure how good the field was, but regardless, the way he was passing horses he would have perhaps passed just about anybody.

And with the amount of early speed in this race he will again have something to run up against late . Anyone with a Nyra account, just click on Kentucky Derby early wagering and watch any race from any horse. He was quite impressive.

Thanks Biscuit.  My other dog is 12 also so now he gets double the attention. lol

Good info fellas… first time I looked in here… keep it up if you can.   

I've been focused on the closers who gobble up ground like Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Gambit (class is his biggest concern for me), Sandman & Luxor Cafe but I can't lose sight of the rabbits who will try to steal the race on the lead like Citizen Bull (if he doesn't get clobbered coming from the 1 hole), Neoequos with Prat who will have a similar issue from post #2, Rodriguez with Money Mike Smith &  East Avenue with the best athlete in Manny Franco.

And then we have Journalism who can just sit off the pace & go when he wants. He could take over at the half mile & discourage the closers from coming after him. 

I think the OAKS undercard has more stars racing like Torpedo Anna, Locked & Fierceness. But the Derby undercard is where money can be made. An exacta wheel with a nice 5 or 6-1 shot on top could be fortuitous.

BTW...I was having lunch with my bride & forgot to post that my new favorite trainer William Walden who ran Event Detail yesterday just won the 4th @ Churchill with Clear the Air paying $13.62 & a $142 exacta.

Hey doc, Hypnus is going in the 3rd race Saturday. He's dropping in class & has 2 nice works at CD. He'll be going against a couple of speedballs that shipped in from Cali & Gulfstream & are going longer for the 1st time.

@Midnight1

 With what I have lost on him so far, I just dont think I could bear watching any further exploits. Thanks though

Anyone thinking of going to the Derby?

Standing Room Only will cost you $366. 

Don't want to be waiting in line to take a leak? A suite will cost you $135k.

Want something a little more reasonable? How about a seat in the Trophy Room for $3,200 which includes unlimited food & drink?

You gotta bring a nice wad to really enjoy the day.

I’ll settle for my 300$ recliner.     

@Mskeets

 Just double checked because $366 sounded outrageous. On Stubhub you can get SRO tickets for 20 bucks on there. 

Rodriguez is out of the Derby with a small bruise. That's one speedball gone.

Baeza #21 gets in.

Flavien Prat is off #2 Neoequos & up on #21 Baeza

This will be "live" here on May 2 at 6:00 PM PST/9:00 PM EST

Nice thread with some great posts but I really do need to ask

Any good mudders here guys?

I see rain Friday and Saturday and lots of rain is forecasted for the Derby all day.

This forecast i believe will be a game changer and could make this run for the roses a complete toss up if it all transpires as predicted.

  The undercard on both Friday and Saturday look much better for predicting winning plays. The KY Derby is so tough to handicap. 20 horses, It's so hard to predict. Sadly,  my last winner in that tough Race is Animal Kingdom way back when.. I will only play Oaks/Derby Double with 3 maybe 4 in first leg with maybe 5 in Derby Saturday..

I wish Every One best of Luck with their wagers

Btw,  I suggest everyone check out Mark Bellings KY Derby analysis..he's pretty good.

I honestly believe they should have 2 derbies with 10 horse fields on derby day, that would open up the Preakness for 2 potential T.C. winners most years and might generate some much needed interest here in the U.S. 

@Midnight1

 Yes….Price is steep… but not private box expensive… and recliner ready for next weekend as well

@justliketoplay

 There are a few who have been successful on off tracks but there are some who have never run on anything but a fast track & that doesn't mean they won't like a wet track & that's where their Mommies & Daddies come into play. Here's how it shapes up in both races as to who has run on a off track:

OAKS

#1 EARLY ON RAN 2ND BY A LENGTH AT AQUEDUCT

#2 SIMPLY JOKING WON BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT GULFSTREAM

#4 DREXEL HILL RAN 3RD BY 3.5 LENGTHS AT FAIRGROUNDS

#7 LA CARA RAN 6TH BY 10 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

#10 TAKE CHARGE MILADY WON BY 4 AT OAKLAWN & RAN 6TH BY 8 LENGTHS AT ELLIS PARK 

#11 GOOD CHEER WON BY 17 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL (YES, 17)

#12 ANNA'S PROMISE RAN 2ND BY A HALF LENGTH AT CHURCHILL

#13 BLESS THE BROKEN RAN 2ND BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT FAIRGROUNDS

#14 QUIETSIDE RAN 2ND BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT SARATOGA 

DERBY HORSES WITH OFF TRACK EXPERIENCE:

#2 NEOEQUOS WON BY 3.5 LENGTHS AT GULFSTREAM & LOST THE RIDER AT THE START IN HIS 1ST RACE AT GULFSTREAM

#5 AMERICAN PROMISE WON BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT OAKLAWN & RAN 8TH BY 6.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL

#6 ADMIRE DAYTONA RAN 4TH BT 4.5 LENGTHS IN TOKYO

#7 LUXOR CAFE RAN 2ND BY A NECK AT SAIPAN (THEIR TRACK RATINGS MAY BE DIFFERENT THAN OURS BECAUSE HE'S LISTED AS 4-3-1 ON A OFF TRACK)

#13 PUBLISHER RAN 2ND BY 1.5 LENGTHS AT OAKLAWN & RAN 3RD BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT CHURCHILL 

#16 COAL BATTLE WON BY 2.5 LENGTHS AT DELTA DOWNS & WON BY 3.5 LENGTHS AT EVANGELINE DOWNS 

THAT'S IT!

@Midnight1

 Thanks Midnight you are good....I mean really good, knowledgeable and very informative thank you for your valuable insights much appreciated.

@justliketoplay

 Second that! 

@vetdrm

 I'm off Burnham now, but will include. I'm going to post my annual analysis this evening.

@mikeyp1

 He was very agitated prior to the Holy Bull.

Not sure how he’ll handle the large crowd.

This is great info! I haven't won $ on the run for the roses more than twice in 20 years, so looking to steal insight from you guys.  Giddy-up

@vetdrm

 The curse of the geldings!

If I were to wager it would be $2 exacta top & bottom Luxor Cafe & $20 across the board. GLuck with your wagers and enjoy the day.