Some of the horses scheduled to run in the Derby are already onsite at Churchill Downs while others will be arriving this weekend & early next week. Since these animals are creatures of habit, one of the issues for these trainers shipping to CD is to keep the horse's routine as regular as possible. They want to get their horse comfortable with the grounds & their surroundings. Most have never heard the crowd nose that will erupt on Derby Day & ya gotta remember these are 3 year olds.
Traffic is always a major concern for the Derby with a 20 horse field & many have raced in much smaller fields. Just waiting in the starting gate for all the horses to load can be unsettling for any horse. Those with speed need to break well as the closers jockey for position so they can make their one big run coming into the stretch. The race can be won/lost at the gate.
Feel free to add your thoughts on the race.
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Some of the horses scheduled to run in the Derby are already onsite at Churchill Downs while others will be arriving this weekend & early next week. Since these animals are creatures of habit, one of the issues for these trainers shipping to CD is to keep the horse's routine as regular as possible. They want to get their horse comfortable with the grounds & their surroundings. Most have never heard the crowd nose that will erupt on Derby Day & ya gotta remember these are 3 year olds.
Traffic is always a major concern for the Derby with a 20 horse field & many have raced in much smaller fields. Just waiting in the starting gate for all the horses to load can be unsettling for any horse. Those with speed need to break well as the closers jockey for position so they can make their one big run coming into the stretch. The race can be won/lost at the gate.
Hi midnight. Feeling down today as I had to put my 12 year old dog Ruby to sleep this morning. talking about the Derby, journalism is the deserving favorite, and rightly so. One thing to keep in mind, though as he has run against very small fields. I know he ran in a five and a six horse field and I’m not sure about the other two or three but pretty sure they were small as well. so can he handle a 20 horse field?
Also I have heard good things about horses coming out of Oaklawn Park for their preps. I noticed Sandman had three good prep races at Oaklawn prior but have not done a lot of homework on many of the others.
Midnight, I’m wondering if you could tell me how many horses came out out of Calumet farm. It could be a wild goose chase with as many as 10 or it could only be a few, but I believe that is a big boost for Derby horses.
As with Japanese horse Forever Young last year I’m thinking Luxor may also come in third this year and may build my tri’s and Supers around that. Sure wish they did at least make those supers 50 cents. Who can afford dollar supers with 10 or 11 horses. Not me. I will chime in from time to time. Thanks for starting the discussion .
Hi midnight. Feeling down today as I had to put my 12 year old dog Ruby to sleep this morning. talking about the Derby, journalism is the deserving favorite, and rightly so. One thing to keep in mind, though as he has run against very small fields. I know he ran in a five and a six horse field and I’m not sure about the other two or three but pretty sure they were small as well. so can he handle a 20 horse field?
Also I have heard good things about horses coming out of Oaklawn Park for their preps. I noticed Sandman had three good prep races at Oaklawn prior but have not done a lot of homework on many of the others.
Midnight, I’m wondering if you could tell me how many horses came out out of Calumet farm. It could be a wild goose chase with as many as 10 or it could only be a few, but I believe that is a big boost for Derby horses.
As with Japanese horse Forever Young last year I’m thinking Luxor may also come in third this year and may build my tri’s and Supers around that. Sure wish they did at least make those supers 50 cents. Who can afford dollar supers with 10 or 11 horses. Not me. I will chime in from time to time. Thanks for starting the discussion .
Trainer of my Derby pick Burnham Square Ian Wilkes was asked what he liked most about his horse & he said his stamina. He never gets tired. Jockey Brian Hernandez worked him for the 1st time 4 days ago & said he had plenty of energy. He's also excited about this pickup mount when Wilkes dumped Zayas after the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
Trainer Brian Cox says Tappan Street will like the distance. He's a good gate horse & expects him to break well & go where Luis Saez wants him. He hopes to get between post 8 & 12. He also likes his chances with Good Cheer next Friday in the Oaks. She's ready to roll & will like the added 1/16th.
Trainer Mike McCarthy says Journalism is an "alpha" colt & glided over the Churchill surface in his recent workout. Big question is whether he can handle such a big field after racing against 5 horse fields in 4 of his 5 lifetime races. Doesn't want an inside post for him. He's the expected favorite.
Trainer Wayne Catalano says Built may go in the Pat Day Mile instead of the Derby bit the owners will make that decision not him. He hasn't had a Derby runner in 28 years.
Trainer of Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley expects his colt to make one run. He's won 5 of 8 & he said in the Arkansas Derby jockey Juan Vargas got a little nervous & moved too soon & got caught by Sandman. Briley likes that he's had 3 good works over the track so far. He's been steadily climbing the class ladder.
Trainer Bill Mott has Sovereignty in the Derby & will get his 2nd workout over the surface this Saturday. I'll point out he has already won over the track back in October winning a stakes by 5 lengths & it could have been by much more. He's a bigger/stronger colt now. Mott says Sovereignty will need to go around or through a bunch of horses because he doesn't have the speed to sit right off the pace. He's confident jockey Junior Alvarado will figure it out once the gate is opened.
Trainer of my Derby pick Burnham Square Ian Wilkes was asked what he liked most about his horse & he said his stamina. He never gets tired. Jockey Brian Hernandez worked him for the 1st time 4 days ago & said he had plenty of energy. He's also excited about this pickup mount when Wilkes dumped Zayas after the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
Trainer Brian Cox says Tappan Street will like the distance. He's a good gate horse & expects him to break well & go where Luis Saez wants him. He hopes to get between post 8 & 12. He also likes his chances with Good Cheer next Friday in the Oaks. She's ready to roll & will like the added 1/16th.
Trainer Mike McCarthy says Journalism is an "alpha" colt & glided over the Churchill surface in his recent workout. Big question is whether he can handle such a big field after racing against 5 horse fields in 4 of his 5 lifetime races. Doesn't want an inside post for him. He's the expected favorite.
Trainer Wayne Catalano says Built may go in the Pat Day Mile instead of the Derby bit the owners will make that decision not him. He hasn't had a Derby runner in 28 years.
Trainer of Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley expects his colt to make one run. He's won 5 of 8 & he said in the Arkansas Derby jockey Juan Vargas got a little nervous & moved too soon & got caught by Sandman. Briley likes that he's had 3 good works over the track so far. He's been steadily climbing the class ladder.
Trainer Bill Mott has Sovereignty in the Derby & will get his 2nd workout over the surface this Saturday. I'll point out he has already won over the track back in October winning a stakes by 5 lengths & it could have been by much more. He's a bigger/stronger colt now. Mott says Sovereignty will need to go around or through a bunch of horses because he doesn't have the speed to sit right off the pace. He's confident jockey Junior Alvarado will figure it out once the gate is opened.
They become such a big part of our families & even though we try to plan for their leaving us, it's impossible to fully grasp the void we feel. We have photos & videos of them doing some crazy stuff which makes our pets that much more special to us.
It will take some time & it's OK to grieve & feel shitty for as long as you & your family want.
Hang in there brother.
@vetdrm
Oh doc, I'm so sorry about Ruby.
They become such a big part of our families & even though we try to plan for their leaving us, it's impossible to fully grasp the void we feel. We have photos & videos of them doing some crazy stuff which makes our pets that much more special to us.
It will take some time & it's OK to grieve & feel shitty for as long as you & your family want.
doc, I saw an interview with Sandman's trainer Mark Casse & he worked him this morning @ 5F going 102.4 & that was intentionally slower than others. And if you look at his works, Casse doesn't push him like some other trainers would do. He's comfortable that he does a lot in his gallops & doesn't need any breezing.
Metallica sent some shirts to the Casse barn because they're on the Sandman bandwagon. They have a concert on Derby Day so they are not able to attend the race.
Regarding your Oaklawn comments, Coach has American Promise with 3 bullet works @ Oaklawn coming into the Derby. He wanted him to stay fresh so he hasn't race since 3/15 when he won the Virginia Derby by almost 8 lengths. He calls him a big awkward kid & when they're that big, you can't push them too hard & you take the joy of it for them. He's been know to give young jocks a chance & he thinks Nik Juarez fits his colt perfectly.
Regarding the chalk, Journalism, I don't like that he got shuffled back in the 5 horse Santa Anita Derby & in my capping I just have a lousy West Coast bias. I've been on Burnham Square for quite awhile & that's where I'll land on Derby Day.
With the top 3 horses, Casse, Wilkes & McCarthy are all looking for their 1st Derby win.
I don't play a lot of Super's but I agree the $1 wage sucks & limits us from going too deep.
Also, don't have much data on Luxor Cafe but he's won 4 of 6 however, has only banked 379k in Japan.
I don't understand Prat staying aboard Publisher who is still a 0 for 7 Maiden for Asmussen.
One last thing for tonight, Chunk of Gold was purchased for $2,500 as a yearling & the owners are getting a ride of their lifetime with him in the race.
@vetdrm
doc, I saw an interview with Sandman's trainer Mark Casse & he worked him this morning @ 5F going 102.4 & that was intentionally slower than others. And if you look at his works, Casse doesn't push him like some other trainers would do. He's comfortable that he does a lot in his gallops & doesn't need any breezing.
Metallica sent some shirts to the Casse barn because they're on the Sandman bandwagon. They have a concert on Derby Day so they are not able to attend the race.
Regarding your Oaklawn comments, Coach has American Promise with 3 bullet works @ Oaklawn coming into the Derby. He wanted him to stay fresh so he hasn't race since 3/15 when he won the Virginia Derby by almost 8 lengths. He calls him a big awkward kid & when they're that big, you can't push them too hard & you take the joy of it for them. He's been know to give young jocks a chance & he thinks Nik Juarez fits his colt perfectly.
Regarding the chalk, Journalism, I don't like that he got shuffled back in the 5 horse Santa Anita Derby & in my capping I just have a lousy West Coast bias. I've been on Burnham Square for quite awhile & that's where I'll land on Derby Day.
With the top 3 horses, Casse, Wilkes & McCarthy are all looking for their 1st Derby win.
I don't play a lot of Super's but I agree the $1 wage sucks & limits us from going too deep.
Also, don't have much data on Luxor Cafe but he's won 4 of 6 however, has only banked 379k in Japan.
I don't understand Prat staying aboard Publisher who is still a 0 for 7 Maiden for Asmussen.
One last thing for tonight, Chunk of Gold was purchased for $2,500 as a yearling & the owners are getting a ride of their lifetime with him in the race.
Thank you for your kind thoughts. Good lord helped me through this. Still have one guy that waits for me to come home. Funny looking at the draft, I heard the people that will be there are more than double the population of Green Bay. Should be epic.
Volzfan - Midnight
Thank you for your kind thoughts. Good lord helped me through this. Still have one guy that waits for me to come home. Funny looking at the draft, I heard the people that will be there are more than double the population of Green Bay. Should be epic.
Bill Mott thinks Sovereignty is his best chance to win the Derby. He did win the Derby via a DQ in 2019 when the stewards took down Maximum Security & declared his colt Country House the winner. He's not worried about traffic issues & believes Junior Alvarado knows what he's sitting & when to ask him for more.
Trainer Mark Casse has an interesting take on the post positions. He believes the horses with the most points should be able to pick the post they want. In that way, the "better" horses won't get stuck with post 1,2, 19 or 20.
Saffie Joseph shipped Neoequos to Churchill today in hopes he can still get in the Derby with a scratch & Prat will be in the saddle. He ran 3rd to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream when he had the lead but tired @ 11-1. If he doesn't get in, Joseph plans to run him on the undercard race. It will be the Pat Day Mile or the American Turf. Neoequos lost his rider at the gate in his 1st start but is 6-2-2-2 since. I think he's playable in another race if he doesn't get to go in the Derby.
Bill Mott thinks Sovereignty is his best chance to win the Derby. He did win the Derby via a DQ in 2019 when the stewards took down Maximum Security & declared his colt Country House the winner. He's not worried about traffic issues & believes Junior Alvarado knows what he's sitting & when to ask him for more.
Trainer Mark Casse has an interesting take on the post positions. He believes the horses with the most points should be able to pick the post they want. In that way, the "better" horses won't get stuck with post 1,2, 19 or 20.
Saffie Joseph shipped Neoequos to Churchill today in hopes he can still get in the Derby with a scratch & Prat will be in the saddle. He ran 3rd to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream when he had the lead but tired @ 11-1. If he doesn't get in, Joseph plans to run him on the undercard race. It will be the Pat Day Mile or the American Turf. Neoequos lost his rider at the gate in his 1st start but is 6-2-2-2 since. I think he's playable in another race if he doesn't get to go in the Derby.
If you are looking for a closing longshot in the Derby, look at Final Gambit. He comes from way, way back. Take a look at his last two races at Turfway.
If you are looking for a closing longshot in the Derby, look at Final Gambit. He comes from way, way back. Take a look at his last two races at Turfway.
Journalism was scheduled to work today @ CD but the track came up "slightly off" per co-owner Aron Wellman. I'm thinking the track may have been a little wet or cuppy. It's probably not a big issue but if the track comes up anything but fast, he may have problems. But the real kick in the balls is what happened to jockey Umberto Rispoli.
He took a redeye from Cali & landed in Cincinnati to work Journalism this morning & his agent drove him to Churchill. Since the workout was cancelled, he flew back to Cali from Louisville to ride his mounts at Santa Anita this afternoon. The guy had to be exhausted.
Journalism & Burnham Square will break from posts 8 & 9 respectfully.
Coal Battle got post 16, Sandman got 17 & Sovereignty got post 18.
Now it starts to get very interesting.
Journalism was scheduled to work today @ CD but the track came up "slightly off" per co-owner Aron Wellman. I'm thinking the track may have been a little wet or cuppy. It's probably not a big issue but if the track comes up anything but fast, he may have problems. But the real kick in the balls is what happened to jockey Umberto Rispoli.
He took a redeye from Cali & landed in Cincinnati to work Journalism this morning & his agent drove him to Churchill. Since the workout was cancelled, he flew back to Cali from Louisville to ride his mounts at Santa Anita this afternoon. The guy had to be exhausted.
Journalism & Burnham Square will break from posts 8 & 9 respectfully.
Coal Battle got post 16, Sandman got 17 & Sovereignty got post 18.
Looks like your horse Burnham Square ended up with a pretty good post. Just watched the Clocker report from April 26. They had nothing but good things to say about his work that afternoon. Ran an excellent time without any urging and looked like he had lots left in the tank.
Looks like your horse Burnham Square ended up with a pretty good post. Just watched the Clocker report from April 26. They had nothing but good things to say about his work that afternoon. Ran an excellent time without any urging and looked like he had lots left in the tank.
Yup doc & his handlers weren't hesitant to work him on what the owners of Journalism considered a "slightly off" track. Baffert's Rodriguez & Citizen Bull both galloped as opposed to getting a workout Saturday. Rodriguez worked this morning & Citizen Bull will get his work tomorrow.
Just realized Edgar Zayas got bumped off 2 Derby colts which are Burnham Square & Neoequos.
As far as Neoequos, Flavien Prat will be the 4th different jockey to ride this guy. I'm also surprised that Prat didn't have amount until this colt got into the race.
Pletcher/Repole's Grande worked Friday & galloped yesterday because Pletcher believes he's a high energy horse & needs to be keep him busy. I wonder if this colt is a head case.
Switching to the Friday Oaks for a second, l wonder if favorite Good Cheer will experience any issues with a larger field than she's accustomed to running against. All of her wins have been very impressive but in fields similar to what Journalism has run against. Good Cheer has won all 6 of her races & 3 of which have been @ Churchill. BTW...I expect # 13 Bless the Broken ML 30-1 to cash a check in the race.
@vetdrm
Yup doc & his handlers weren't hesitant to work him on what the owners of Journalism considered a "slightly off" track. Baffert's Rodriguez & Citizen Bull both galloped as opposed to getting a workout Saturday. Rodriguez worked this morning & Citizen Bull will get his work tomorrow.
Just realized Edgar Zayas got bumped off 2 Derby colts which are Burnham Square & Neoequos.
As far as Neoequos, Flavien Prat will be the 4th different jockey to ride this guy. I'm also surprised that Prat didn't have amount until this colt got into the race.
Pletcher/Repole's Grande worked Friday & galloped yesterday because Pletcher believes he's a high energy horse & needs to be keep him busy. I wonder if this colt is a head case.
Switching to the Friday Oaks for a second, l wonder if favorite Good Cheer will experience any issues with a larger field than she's accustomed to running against. All of her wins have been very impressive but in fields similar to what Journalism has run against. Good Cheer has won all 6 of her races & 3 of which have been @ Churchill. BTW...I expect # 13 Bless the Broken ML 30-1 to cash a check in the race.
Irad Ortiz has never finished ITM (in the money) in the Derby.
This year he's riding #13 Publisher ML 30-1 for Asmussen.
This colt has a 7-0-2-3 career record.
You don't see many Maidens run in the Derby. He ran 2nd to #17 Sandman in the Arkansas Derby @ 7-1 with Prat riding him. He also ran 4th to #16 Coal Battle in the Rebel Stakes.
Irad Ortiz has never finished ITM (in the money) in the Derby.
This year he's riding #13 Publisher ML 30-1 for Asmussen.
This colt has a 7-0-2-3 career record.
You don't see many Maidens run in the Derby. He ran 2nd to #17 Sandman in the Arkansas Derby @ 7-1 with Prat riding him. He also ran 4th to #16 Coal Battle in the Rebel Stakes.
Mike Repole is 0 for 9 in the Derby. He had Uncle Mo in 2010 & Forte on 2023. He has #10 Grande this year.
Frankie Dettori doesn't have a mount in the Derby. Either does Luis Saez. Nor Dylan Davis or Carmouche, Wacko Poco, Lezcano or Bejarano. That's a lot of talent not being used. Sooooo, I have to check where these guys are racing Derby Day because the jockey competition will not be as great & "live" rides become available.
Mike Repole is 0 for 9 in the Derby. He had Uncle Mo in 2010 & Forte on 2023. He has #10 Grande this year.
Frankie Dettori doesn't have a mount in the Derby. Either does Luis Saez. Nor Dylan Davis or Carmouche, Wacko Poco, Lezcano or Bejarano. That's a lot of talent not being used. Sooooo, I have to check where these guys are racing Derby Day because the jockey competition will not be as great & "live" rides become available.
Hey Vet.....so sorry to hear about your dog. We have an 11-year old female and dread the day when we might have to put her down. Hope all is well and I'll be following you this week.
@vetdrm
Hey Vet.....so sorry to hear about your dog. We have an 11-year old female and dread the day when we might have to put her down. Hope all is well and I'll be following you this week.
Hey Vet.....so sorry to hear about your dog. We have an 11-year old female and dread the day when we might have to put her down. Hope all is well and I'll be following you this week.
@vetdrm
Hey Vet.....so sorry to hear about your dog. We have an 11-year old female and dread the day when we might have to put her down. Hope all is well and I'll be following you this week.
Here is some serious stats/info. Using the Conduit Mares Profiles in the Last 24 KY Derbys only 1 horse has won the Derby with a higher Speed Number than Stamina Number and that horse was Authentic in 2020 when the Derby was run in September so I am not counting that as that was a messed up Derby. Also only 2 horses came in second place with those same speed/stamina numbers and 1 of those was also in 2020. So take out the Sept 2020 Derby and NO horses with higher Speed than Stamina numbers have won the Derby since 2020!!! and only 1 horse has come in second place!!! and that horse was LionHeart in 2004 and his numbers were 14 & 14! This year the horses with higher Stamina than Speed are: Sandman, Journalism, Rodriguez, Chunk of Gold, Publisher, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona and Grande. So if this trends continues your winner and second place finisher should come from this group and you came get rid of some of those not to win and come up with a great exacta. And also in those same 24 years only 4 horses won the Derby with a last TG# over 3 so for me that gets rid of Chunk of Gold with a 5 and Flying Mohawk with a 8.5. I will get rid of a few more horses out of that group to win based on other handicapping info. Hope this info helps
Here is some serious stats/info. Using the Conduit Mares Profiles in the Last 24 KY Derbys only 1 horse has won the Derby with a higher Speed Number than Stamina Number and that horse was Authentic in 2020 when the Derby was run in September so I am not counting that as that was a messed up Derby. Also only 2 horses came in second place with those same speed/stamina numbers and 1 of those was also in 2020. So take out the Sept 2020 Derby and NO horses with higher Speed than Stamina numbers have won the Derby since 2020!!! and only 1 horse has come in second place!!! and that horse was LionHeart in 2004 and his numbers were 14 & 14! This year the horses with higher Stamina than Speed are: Sandman, Journalism, Rodriguez, Chunk of Gold, Publisher, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona and Grande. So if this trends continues your winner and second place finisher should come from this group and you came get rid of some of those not to win and come up with a great exacta. And also in those same 24 years only 4 horses won the Derby with a last TG# over 3 so for me that gets rid of Chunk of Gold with a 5 and Flying Mohawk with a 8.5. I will get rid of a few more horses out of that group to win based on other handicapping info. Hope this info helps
#11 Flying Mohawk is owned by Two Eight Racing & former Philly outfielder Jason Werth. He wore #28 when he played baseball.
If you remember, he also owned Dornach who won the Belmont last year. Flying Mohawk got banged around out of the gate in his last but closed for 2nd beaten by #3 Final Gambit (a horse I mentioned earlier in the thread) in the Jeff Ruby @ Turfway.
He broke his maiden @ Churchill in his 4th try back in October.
I dunno...
#11 Flying Mohawk is owned by Two Eight Racing & former Philly outfielder Jason Werth. He wore #28 when he played baseball.
If you remember, he also owned Dornach who won the Belmont last year. Flying Mohawk got banged around out of the gate in his last but closed for 2nd beaten by #3 Final Gambit (a horse I mentioned earlier in the thread) in the Jeff Ruby @ Turfway.
He broke his maiden @ Churchill in his 4th try back in October.
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