Posted:
#1
Most truly successful handicappers I know (and there aren't many) tend to engage in contrarian thinking. Meaning simply that they try to see beyond the obvious and try to suss out information and angles that may be hidden or overlooked by the majority of others. They look for realistic flaws in favorites and revisit other horses that most (including themselves) might throw out at first glance. They don't blindly adhere to dogmatic thinking or established rules and maxims. These individuals are mavericks of a sort and typically, if they have patience and conviction , cash tickets with far greater value albeit usually less often.
That being said, I doubt very seriously that even the best contrarian players could have picked Mine That Bird to win the Derby.
Perhaps one would start with considering that as a young horse he might continue to mature and get better, putting in his best performance to date on Derby day. Yet his Beyers had not fluctuated by more than 4 points since last August and he had in fact regressed by a point in his last race. Hmmm, not much to go on there.
Maybe a case could be made for his appreciating the dirt over the poly. Well, two races there and no discernable movement to indicate that the surface switch brought him to life...hmmm.
Perhaps he is simply bred to be a mud freak, and aren't we gonna have a lot of rain that day? That's funny, his Tomlinson for Wet ranks as the 3rd lowest in the group. Oh, well.
Maybe he's got the right breeding for the distance? That extra 1/4 mile might make a big difference. He has the worst dosage rating in the field you say? Damn, back to the drawing board.
Hidden class perhaps? Purchased for less than 10k? One graded stakes win in Canada in a 6 horse field? Can't quite beat the others in Ungraded stakes at Sunland park? They race Quarter horses there don't they?
Maybe hidden rough trips? Well, he was wide in several but no major problems really.
Workouts? Less than impressive...piss poor actually.
Trainer? No name Hillbilly with one win for the year.
Form? Seems sound enough but pretty darned flat in his last two.
Earnings? No where near the top of the field in either total earnings or average earning by race.
No blinkers or Lasix move. Dang.
There's got to be something right? Yes! There is!
FRACTIONAL TIMES.
As none of the entrants had yet to run a 1 1/4 mile race the best representative example would be to look at 1 1/8 mile races. And who do you think had the best 1st and 2nd call times of all past performances and in his most recent race to boot?
You got it. :45 4/5 and 1:10 1/5.!
And though he appeared to wilt at the end it was quite impressive that he challenged at those times at all.
Better than the rest of the field and considerably better than his race just previous. Which leads me to the Beyer debate. I use Beyers as a guidline to be sure and when I have a few horses with close Beyers, or several in this case, I look to fractional times, class, earnings, form, etc.. to differentiate. I even had several split times circled for my contenders as reference but at first and probably second blush there was nothing noteworthy about Mine That Bird.
He hadn't broken an 81 Beyer and had regressed in fact, if only slightly. But had that last Beyer been a 90+ I would have given a closer looksee if only to check the possibilty of using him in my exotics instead of throwing him out almost immediately. And I would have noticed the improvement and would have then found that little gem of info. I'm not saying that would have made me bet him. There were enough stikes against him in most of our eyes already, but I cannot believe that there was so much difference in the same track a month later that running in a classier race, with harder fractions, and in a larger and more competitive field that this horse could have possibly ranked a LOWER Beyer.
And like many of you have voiced, something smells fishy to me too. Regardless, another danger of overlooking any info provided in the form. Take nothing for granted!
Again, could have found other reasons to throw him out but can any of us say we would have tossed him out of hand if his last Beyer was listed at 99 or 100?
Just something to consider all. Whether or not shadiness was involved (purposefully repressing Beyer reports) did anyone else notice the times?
Appreciate any other comments or observances...
That being said, I doubt very seriously that even the best contrarian players could have picked Mine That Bird to win the Derby.
Perhaps one would start with considering that as a young horse he might continue to mature and get better, putting in his best performance to date on Derby day. Yet his Beyers had not fluctuated by more than 4 points since last August and he had in fact regressed by a point in his last race. Hmmm, not much to go on there.
Maybe a case could be made for his appreciating the dirt over the poly. Well, two races there and no discernable movement to indicate that the surface switch brought him to life...hmmm.
Perhaps he is simply bred to be a mud freak, and aren't we gonna have a lot of rain that day? That's funny, his Tomlinson for Wet ranks as the 3rd lowest in the group. Oh, well.
Maybe he's got the right breeding for the distance? That extra 1/4 mile might make a big difference. He has the worst dosage rating in the field you say? Damn, back to the drawing board.
Hidden class perhaps? Purchased for less than 10k? One graded stakes win in Canada in a 6 horse field? Can't quite beat the others in Ungraded stakes at Sunland park? They race Quarter horses there don't they?
Maybe hidden rough trips? Well, he was wide in several but no major problems really.
Workouts? Less than impressive...piss poor actually.
Trainer? No name Hillbilly with one win for the year.
Form? Seems sound enough but pretty darned flat in his last two.
Earnings? No where near the top of the field in either total earnings or average earning by race.
No blinkers or Lasix move. Dang.
There's got to be something right? Yes! There is!
FRACTIONAL TIMES.
As none of the entrants had yet to run a 1 1/4 mile race the best representative example would be to look at 1 1/8 mile races. And who do you think had the best 1st and 2nd call times of all past performances and in his most recent race to boot?
You got it. :45 4/5 and 1:10 1/5.!
And though he appeared to wilt at the end it was quite impressive that he challenged at those times at all.
Better than the rest of the field and considerably better than his race just previous. Which leads me to the Beyer debate. I use Beyers as a guidline to be sure and when I have a few horses with close Beyers, or several in this case, I look to fractional times, class, earnings, form, etc.. to differentiate. I even had several split times circled for my contenders as reference but at first and probably second blush there was nothing noteworthy about Mine That Bird.
He hadn't broken an 81 Beyer and had regressed in fact, if only slightly. But had that last Beyer been a 90+ I would have given a closer looksee if only to check the possibilty of using him in my exotics instead of throwing him out almost immediately. And I would have noticed the improvement and would have then found that little gem of info. I'm not saying that would have made me bet him. There were enough stikes against him in most of our eyes already, but I cannot believe that there was so much difference in the same track a month later that running in a classier race, with harder fractions, and in a larger and more competitive field that this horse could have possibly ranked a LOWER Beyer.
And like many of you have voiced, something smells fishy to me too. Regardless, another danger of overlooking any info provided in the form. Take nothing for granted!
Again, could have found other reasons to throw him out but can any of us say we would have tossed him out of hand if his last Beyer was listed at 99 or 100?
Just something to consider all. Whether or not shadiness was involved (purposefully repressing Beyer reports) did anyone else notice the times?
Appreciate any other comments or observances...
0
Hot Forum Topics
