Two other factors that need to be considered in your handicapping are the sex and age of the horse and most importantly read the conditions of the race.
Some factors that I pretty much ignore are weight, pace and running style. I can see where the last two could effect the race but I don't bother with it.
Appreciate the info, its good to see how others approach their capping
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Quote Originally Posted by gambler315:
Two other factors that need to be considered in your handicapping are the sex and age of the horse and most importantly read the conditions of the race.
Some factors that I pretty much ignore are weight, pace and running style. I can see where the last two could effect the race but I don't bother with it.
Appreciate the info, its good to see how others approach their capping
Two other factors that need to be considered in your handicapping are the sex and age of the horse and most importantly read the conditions of the race.
Some factors that I pretty much ignore are weight, pace and running style. I can see where the last two could effect the race but I don't bother with it.
Pace makes the race
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Quote Originally Posted by gambler315:
Two other factors that need to be considered in your handicapping are the sex and age of the horse and most importantly read the conditions of the race.
Some factors that I pretty much ignore are weight, pace and running style. I can see where the last two could effect the race but I don't bother with it.
I am 21, and spend more time watching the ponies at woodbine than I do watching sporting events.
I have been into the racing scene from family, and have been around and understanding it since about 16.
I can read the program, and I can cap a race. I'm not saying im amazing, or even "good". I'm saying I can hold my own.
I tend to not chase favourites.. for the simple reason of "Joey Public" putting their money on it.. Gambler said it wins 33% of the time, and he's right, but if you find a nice 4-1 shot, that has any "notes" worth backing.. i will gladly take him.
so much goes into one race, that is unknown to the casual pony player. Trainers running a different style of race with their horse.. Jockeys riding bad races.. gaps filling up, horses checking up in behind runners.. course bias, horses running green, horses from left field wheeling down the stretch from 15 lengths back to win a nose. There is soo much that goes into a race, but thats why I think its soo spectacular.
I also tend to lean toward the Dam/Sire/ Dams Sire of the Horse I will be betting on. Genetics are more evident in horses, than in anything else, and if your telling me a horse by Wando, or Bold Executive ( woodbine refrences ) are running on their prefered surface, at there prefered length.. and ARENT favourite.. someone call the cops, cuz im pretty sure this is gunna be a steal.
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this is a great thread.
I am 21, and spend more time watching the ponies at woodbine than I do watching sporting events.
I have been into the racing scene from family, and have been around and understanding it since about 16.
I can read the program, and I can cap a race. I'm not saying im amazing, or even "good". I'm saying I can hold my own.
I tend to not chase favourites.. for the simple reason of "Joey Public" putting their money on it.. Gambler said it wins 33% of the time, and he's right, but if you find a nice 4-1 shot, that has any "notes" worth backing.. i will gladly take him.
so much goes into one race, that is unknown to the casual pony player. Trainers running a different style of race with their horse.. Jockeys riding bad races.. gaps filling up, horses checking up in behind runners.. course bias, horses running green, horses from left field wheeling down the stretch from 15 lengths back to win a nose. There is soo much that goes into a race, but thats why I think its soo spectacular.
I also tend to lean toward the Dam/Sire/ Dams Sire of the Horse I will be betting on. Genetics are more evident in horses, than in anything else, and if your telling me a horse by Wando, or Bold Executive ( woodbine refrences ) are running on their prefered surface, at there prefered length.. and ARENT favourite.. someone call the cops, cuz im pretty sure this is gunna be a steal.
I think the better chance of winning comes in the Standerbred section; Yes, even with the chance of horses going off stride.
The pocket position is money in the bank.. and once you get a horse in the outside flow coming around the turn.. unless the point leader has set slower fractions then a turtle.. His lead is almost sure to houdini.
Anyone have any questions or anything, feel free to inbox me.. I can talk bout this shit for dayssssss
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Thats just for the Thorobreds...
And I didnt even say everything I wanted to say..
I think the better chance of winning comes in the Standerbred section; Yes, even with the chance of horses going off stride.
The pocket position is money in the bank.. and once you get a horse in the outside flow coming around the turn.. unless the point leader has set slower fractions then a turtle.. His lead is almost sure to houdini.
Anyone have any questions or anything, feel free to inbox me.. I can talk bout this shit for dayssssss
I'll take the horse that can run the distance the fastest when it's in condition. Final time is the key for me.
If a horse runs 45 for 4f but finishes in 112 and any horse in condition on that day that can run 111.4 should/will beat him. What the early fractions are means little because the horse that runs the fastest final time wins every race. You can go fast early or go fast late but it's the final time that matters. IMO.
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Quote Originally Posted by Chicapper:
Pace makes the race
I'll take the horse that can run the distance the fastest when it's in condition. Final time is the key for me.
If a horse runs 45 for 4f but finishes in 112 and any horse in condition on that day that can run 111.4 should/will beat him. What the early fractions are means little because the horse that runs the fastest final time wins every race. You can go fast early or go fast late but it's the final time that matters. IMO.
Dogcity, I do your 21 with 5 yrs experience in harness racing and wish you the best with that. But breeding (which I forgot b4) is another I totally ignore when capping a race. The Green Monkey and some others should show us that. It's the horse not the breeding that makes a winner, again IMO.
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Dogcity, I do your 21 with 5 yrs experience in harness racing and wish you the best with that. But breeding (which I forgot b4) is another I totally ignore when capping a race. The Green Monkey and some others should show us that. It's the horse not the breeding that makes a winner, again IMO.
Dogcity, I do your 21 with 5 yrs experience in harness racing and wish you the best with that. But breeding (which I forgot b4) is another I totally ignore when capping a race. The Green Monkey and some others should show us that. It's the horse not the breeding that makes a winner, again IMO.
Pardon my ignorance, but I do not understand exactly.
If you ignore it.. are you doing so for a reason? Lets say because its completely irrelevant?
If thats the case, I would have to respectfully say I think thats a big mistake.
The harness circuit does not display the elemens of breeding like the Thorobreds do.
If you mean to tell me, you will back a horse going around 2 turns, with no prior experience, and bred from a dam or sire that has a sprinting resume?
I do believe and horse can win on any giving day.. however Breeding is huge IMO.
Some are bred for turf, some for dirt/poly.
I apologize if I am bashing your opinion, ( which I am not...) I just think you are better off to take a look at the breeding lines.
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Quote Originally Posted by gambler315:
Dogcity, I do your 21 with 5 yrs experience in harness racing and wish you the best with that. But breeding (which I forgot b4) is another I totally ignore when capping a race. The Green Monkey and some others should show us that. It's the horse not the breeding that makes a winner, again IMO.
Pardon my ignorance, but I do not understand exactly.
If you ignore it.. are you doing so for a reason? Lets say because its completely irrelevant?
If thats the case, I would have to respectfully say I think thats a big mistake.
The harness circuit does not display the elemens of breeding like the Thorobreds do.
If you mean to tell me, you will back a horse going around 2 turns, with no prior experience, and bred from a dam or sire that has a sprinting resume?
I do believe and horse can win on any giving day.. however Breeding is huge IMO.
Some are bred for turf, some for dirt/poly.
I apologize if I am bashing your opinion, ( which I am not...) I just think you are better off to take a look at the breeding lines.
Breeding might have some relevance to some people but I don't look much into it either. Races with a bunch of first timers are races that I usually pass on. I'd rather play races that have horses with at least a race or two under their belt. Races with some first timers and some with experience, I'll take the horse with experience just about every time.
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Breeding might have some relevance to some people but I don't look much into it either. Races with a bunch of first timers are races that I usually pass on. I'd rather play races that have horses with at least a race or two under their belt. Races with some first timers and some with experience, I'll take the horse with experience just about every time.
Breeding might have some relevance to some people but I don't look much into it either. Races with a bunch of first timers are races that I usually pass on. I'd rather play races that have horses with at least a race or two under their belt. Races with some first timers and some with experience, I'll take the horse with experience just about every time.
I agree on the experience part, and I would be a fool to try and shoot that theory down.
2yr olds are as unpredictable as the BlueJays bullpen. Anything can happen, and more often then not, anything does happen.
But with that experience.. you gotta look at what class level they got it from.. If they have 2 8th place finishes in a Non-Winner of 1 race, or 2 races... I dont know how positively you can take that experience.
There are soo many angles you can approach a race from, we could sit here till pigs fly and disagree on more then we agree on.
I try and avoid horses that are first time off the claim. Thats just a rule of mine.
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Quote Originally Posted by spliquid:
Breeding might have some relevance to some people but I don't look much into it either. Races with a bunch of first timers are races that I usually pass on. I'd rather play races that have horses with at least a race or two under their belt. Races with some first timers and some with experience, I'll take the horse with experience just about every time.
I agree on the experience part, and I would be a fool to try and shoot that theory down.
2yr olds are as unpredictable as the BlueJays bullpen. Anything can happen, and more often then not, anything does happen.
But with that experience.. you gotta look at what class level they got it from.. If they have 2 8th place finishes in a Non-Winner of 1 race, or 2 races... I dont know how positively you can take that experience.
There are soo many angles you can approach a race from, we could sit here till pigs fly and disagree on more then we agree on.
I try and avoid horses that are first time off the claim. Thats just a rule of mine.
oh, what the hell just got back home tonight so i'll throw my two cents in. guys, bear in mind i have only played this game for a far, far shorter amount of time than many others in here - people that I respect. i've had this kicking around inside my noggin for a couple years and never wrote it down. tear it apart if you wish or comment.
i played this game for some fun action only from about mid-2005 until the start of Santa Anita at the end of December in 2006. when I got to SoCal i realized that "holy shit this is a legit sport and it is serious business" so i took it more seriously searching for not just what happened but why it happened and how to project what will happen. at this point I also realized that this (thoroughbreds only) is the greatest game in the world
first is handicapping and only AFTER that is it time to analyze the tote and go to Decision Making in my humble view. The morning line is meaningless just one man's opinion. I'll take the tote's opinion over any ML guy.
in this order unless forced otherwise (first time starters and a lot of maidens obviously have little to no form established):
1. Recency - put a gun to my head I rank recency #1. Horses that are in good, solid form, performing well recently, and in shape and fit and healthy have a very good chance of running another good race and even improving in some cases. I'll consider a layoff horse IF the horse has already shown something in terms of talent and ability, has the right trainer, and has drilled in a manner that displays proper fitness.
2. Late Speed and the Ability to Finish the Job - Speed is the name of the game but I look more at Late Speed. I'd say 90-95% of the races are determined in the final quarter mile if not the final sixteenth (not talking trotters or quarters here). The best Late Speed might be a horse that goes out front, a closer from the clouds, one that sits mid pack, or a stalk and pounce type horse. The bottom line is who will be showing the best late energy and life and driving home powerfully. This also shows a sense of a horse's "killer instinct" since when these horses (with the best Late Speed relative to the field) run at a distance they can handle they rarely fold up and cave in late (though it happens they are not machines).
3. Pattern - Are the speed figs improving or declining? Have they flattened out (not necessarily a bad thing)? Moving up in class or down or staying the same? Switching surfaces? Stretching out/cutting back? Why is the horse in this race? Is this horse projecting forward to a race that equals his/her best ever or better yet improves on that?
4. Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - they are all very important not going into each one. As one example for pace/stamina I prefer horses that can run today's race at today's class/distance without exerting too much energy before they hit the top of the lane so they have "enough left" when the real running starts.
5. Jockey/Trainer - The horse is by far the most important factor but I don't think you can ignore certain guys in this game. The regulars here know who these people are.
6. Breeding - I use this when a horse has made either 0, 1, or 2 starts only OR when a younger horse (2YO or 3YO) is doing something different for the first time like switching surfaces or changing distance significantly. After form is established it is not nearly as important. BUT, there is a reason why Smart Strike, Distorted Humor, and Tapit keep producing winners and Kitten's Joy, El Prado, and Dynaformer tend to produce good turf horses (just a few examples available at DRF).
After all of this it is time to evaluate the tote (with about ten minutes to post and legit money has come in) and make a decision in accordance with risk/reward. I realize not possible playing multi-horizontal exotics.
I think about 80-85% of the races are "explainable" if that makes sense. The others are "whoa, didn't see that coming". Depending on field size you can get down to between 1 and 4 horses as the candidates most likely to project and fire big today. Then, gotta make the correct decisions (which is where the real fun or pain comes in depending on how you look at it).
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oh, what the hell just got back home tonight so i'll throw my two cents in. guys, bear in mind i have only played this game for a far, far shorter amount of time than many others in here - people that I respect. i've had this kicking around inside my noggin for a couple years and never wrote it down. tear it apart if you wish or comment.
i played this game for some fun action only from about mid-2005 until the start of Santa Anita at the end of December in 2006. when I got to SoCal i realized that "holy shit this is a legit sport and it is serious business" so i took it more seriously searching for not just what happened but why it happened and how to project what will happen. at this point I also realized that this (thoroughbreds only) is the greatest game in the world
first is handicapping and only AFTER that is it time to analyze the tote and go to Decision Making in my humble view. The morning line is meaningless just one man's opinion. I'll take the tote's opinion over any ML guy.
in this order unless forced otherwise (first time starters and a lot of maidens obviously have little to no form established):
1. Recency - put a gun to my head I rank recency #1. Horses that are in good, solid form, performing well recently, and in shape and fit and healthy have a very good chance of running another good race and even improving in some cases. I'll consider a layoff horse IF the horse has already shown something in terms of talent and ability, has the right trainer, and has drilled in a manner that displays proper fitness.
2. Late Speed and the Ability to Finish the Job - Speed is the name of the game but I look more at Late Speed. I'd say 90-95% of the races are determined in the final quarter mile if not the final sixteenth (not talking trotters or quarters here). The best Late Speed might be a horse that goes out front, a closer from the clouds, one that sits mid pack, or a stalk and pounce type horse. The bottom line is who will be showing the best late energy and life and driving home powerfully. This also shows a sense of a horse's "killer instinct" since when these horses (with the best Late Speed relative to the field) run at a distance they can handle they rarely fold up and cave in late (though it happens they are not machines).
3. Pattern - Are the speed figs improving or declining? Have they flattened out (not necessarily a bad thing)? Moving up in class or down or staying the same? Switching surfaces? Stretching out/cutting back? Why is the horse in this race? Is this horse projecting forward to a race that equals his/her best ever or better yet improves on that?
4. Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - they are all very important not going into each one. As one example for pace/stamina I prefer horses that can run today's race at today's class/distance without exerting too much energy before they hit the top of the lane so they have "enough left" when the real running starts.
5. Jockey/Trainer - The horse is by far the most important factor but I don't think you can ignore certain guys in this game. The regulars here know who these people are.
6. Breeding - I use this when a horse has made either 0, 1, or 2 starts only OR when a younger horse (2YO or 3YO) is doing something different for the first time like switching surfaces or changing distance significantly. After form is established it is not nearly as important. BUT, there is a reason why Smart Strike, Distorted Humor, and Tapit keep producing winners and Kitten's Joy, El Prado, and Dynaformer tend to produce good turf horses (just a few examples available at DRF).
After all of this it is time to evaluate the tote (with about ten minutes to post and legit money has come in) and make a decision in accordance with risk/reward. I realize not possible playing multi-horizontal exotics.
I think about 80-85% of the races are "explainable" if that makes sense. The others are "whoa, didn't see that coming". Depending on field size you can get down to between 1 and 4 horses as the candidates most likely to project and fire big today. Then, gotta make the correct decisions (which is where the real fun or pain comes in depending on how you look at it).
Regarding the conditions - yes it amazes me how players bet their money without reading the conditions and really understanding what type of race it is. People at times aren't aware that a race is restricted to state breds or is a conditioned or restricted claimer. Some people see CLM10000 as the same thing as CLM10000N2L. Those two are very, very different. They are in a race restricted to non winners of two lifetime for a reason. Though, at the top places like Saratoga, Keenland, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream you will see CLM30000N2L with a solid purse of 30-35K and you gotta watch out for some sharpies dropping a horse in for that purse that may only have 1 win but may be far better than the others and they are playing poker hoping nobody claims the horse and they steal the pot.
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Regarding the conditions - yes it amazes me how players bet their money without reading the conditions and really understanding what type of race it is. People at times aren't aware that a race is restricted to state breds or is a conditioned or restricted claimer. Some people see CLM10000 as the same thing as CLM10000N2L. Those two are very, very different. They are in a race restricted to non winners of two lifetime for a reason. Though, at the top places like Saratoga, Keenland, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream you will see CLM30000N2L with a solid purse of 30-35K and you gotta watch out for some sharpies dropping a horse in for that purse that may only have 1 win but may be far better than the others and they are playing poker hoping nobody claims the horse and they steal the pot.
ATLAS..thanks for opping in on this...ATLAS knows his stuff.
DOGCITY..you are on the right track. Point is that the more you handicap, the more you learn and will find the little things that help you to make your decision.
Every handicapper has his/her own factors that they look at. For example, while G315 doesn't use pace so kmuch in his capping, I do---not inb every race--but in many. But that's my thinking and it it might be different than others.
I do look at breeding (I have learned to really check out the dam's sire stats) for some races, but I mostly look at sire stats: for first timers, for example (those horses running for the first time for those not knowing what this means), for 2-year olds and 3-year olds. In the last few years, I have even looked at stuff like 2nd or 3rd sire crop....not a lot, but at times wheen I am really stretching to make a decision.
The point is to keep learning and develop your own style. It took me 5 or 6 years to feel comfortable handicapping, then anther 3 or 4 years to figure out what bets to make (ie. wheel vs. box, etc.).
DOG...your 21 years old and if you keep at it, in the next few years you will be on top of your game.
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ATLAS..thanks for opping in on this...ATLAS knows his stuff.
DOGCITY..you are on the right track. Point is that the more you handicap, the more you learn and will find the little things that help you to make your decision.
Every handicapper has his/her own factors that they look at. For example, while G315 doesn't use pace so kmuch in his capping, I do---not inb every race--but in many. But that's my thinking and it it might be different than others.
I do look at breeding (I have learned to really check out the dam's sire stats) for some races, but I mostly look at sire stats: for first timers, for example (those horses running for the first time for those not knowing what this means), for 2-year olds and 3-year olds. In the last few years, I have even looked at stuff like 2nd or 3rd sire crop....not a lot, but at times wheen I am really stretching to make a decision.
The point is to keep learning and develop your own style. It took me 5 or 6 years to feel comfortable handicapping, then anther 3 or 4 years to figure out what bets to make (ie. wheel vs. box, etc.).
DOG...your 21 years old and if you keep at it, in the next few years you will be on top of your game.
ATLAS..thanks for opping in on this...ATLAS knows his stuff.
DOGCITY..you are on the right track. Point is that the more you handicap, the more you learn and will find the little things that help you to make your decision.
Every handicapper has his/her own factors that they look at. For example, while G315 doesn't use pace so kmuch in his capping, I do---not inb every race--but in many. But that's my thinking and it it might be different than others.
I do look at breeding (I have learned to really check out the dam's sire stats) for some races, but I mostly look at sire stats: for first timers, for example (those horses running for the first time for those not knowing what this means), for 2-year olds and 3-year olds. In the last few years, I have even looked at stuff like 2nd or 3rd sire crop....not a lot, but at times wheen I am really stretching to make a decision.
The point is to keep learning and develop your own style. It took me 5 or 6 years to feel comfortable handicapping, then anther 3 or 4 years to figure out what bets to make (ie. wheel vs. box, etc.).
DOG...your 21 years old and if you keep at it, in the next few years you will be on top of your game.
I hope the top of my game is very lucrative.
In terms of what to bet, I usually stick to my Exactors and Win bets. I usually narrow my selections to 3 horses, and box em.
If I feel very confident in one horse, I will key him, and smash him straight up.
I remember last years QP at Woodbine. Winner - Big Red Mike. I had watched his QP warm up (Queens Plate Trial Cup or something) And was on another horse.. didnt this horse come outta the sky and blow by everyone! I made sure to make note that I would not bet against him cup QP. Sure enough, it was a very good idea.
Recency is key.. Unless regressing results. Depending on the conditions, a horse coming off a peak performance usually doesnt get my vote if its odds are significantly lower- which usually thats the case.
What is your opinions on betting Jocks? I think its important to know whose on the horse, and I think its more important that most think.
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Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:
ATLAS..thanks for opping in on this...ATLAS knows his stuff.
DOGCITY..you are on the right track. Point is that the more you handicap, the more you learn and will find the little things that help you to make your decision.
Every handicapper has his/her own factors that they look at. For example, while G315 doesn't use pace so kmuch in his capping, I do---not inb every race--but in many. But that's my thinking and it it might be different than others.
I do look at breeding (I have learned to really check out the dam's sire stats) for some races, but I mostly look at sire stats: for first timers, for example (those horses running for the first time for those not knowing what this means), for 2-year olds and 3-year olds. In the last few years, I have even looked at stuff like 2nd or 3rd sire crop....not a lot, but at times wheen I am really stretching to make a decision.
The point is to keep learning and develop your own style. It took me 5 or 6 years to feel comfortable handicapping, then anther 3 or 4 years to figure out what bets to make (ie. wheel vs. box, etc.).
DOG...your 21 years old and if you keep at it, in the next few years you will be on top of your game.
I hope the top of my game is very lucrative.
In terms of what to bet, I usually stick to my Exactors and Win bets. I usually narrow my selections to 3 horses, and box em.
If I feel very confident in one horse, I will key him, and smash him straight up.
I remember last years QP at Woodbine. Winner - Big Red Mike. I had watched his QP warm up (Queens Plate Trial Cup or something) And was on another horse.. didnt this horse come outta the sky and blow by everyone! I made sure to make note that I would not bet against him cup QP. Sure enough, it was a very good idea.
Recency is key.. Unless regressing results. Depending on the conditions, a horse coming off a peak performance usually doesnt get my vote if its odds are significantly lower- which usually thats the case.
What is your opinions on betting Jocks? I think its important to know whose on the horse, and I think its more important that most think.
NR..take what you like that you've read here & develop your own capping style. You can see from this thread there are many different styles and one aspect may be very important for one capper but not for another.
I have a habit of making notes when I see something unusual or unexpected in a race. Equibase.com allows you to build your own stable where you enter horses that caught your attention & you can add notes as to what you saw in a given race. Once you've added it to your stable, equibase will alert you to horse workouts as well as alert you to when your horse is scheduled to race again. My comments usually include date/track/race class/distance/dirt or turf/trainer/jock/post time odds & how the horse ran. Now all of that info can be found in the past performances but personally I like my own view on the race. In the beginning it takes some work but it becomes easier as you go along.
If one of my horses is scheduled to race & I think they have a shot I usually post it in this forum with my reasons why it may be a winner. Some win some lose. I'm pretty selective as to what tracks I play & I don't play more than 3 tracks on a given day. That process works for me.
Hang in there, ask qustions in this forum and learn. BOL to you..
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NR..take what you like that you've read here & develop your own capping style. You can see from this thread there are many different styles and one aspect may be very important for one capper but not for another.
I have a habit of making notes when I see something unusual or unexpected in a race. Equibase.com allows you to build your own stable where you enter horses that caught your attention & you can add notes as to what you saw in a given race. Once you've added it to your stable, equibase will alert you to horse workouts as well as alert you to when your horse is scheduled to race again. My comments usually include date/track/race class/distance/dirt or turf/trainer/jock/post time odds & how the horse ran. Now all of that info can be found in the past performances but personally I like my own view on the race. In the beginning it takes some work but it becomes easier as you go along.
If one of my horses is scheduled to race & I think they have a shot I usually post it in this forum with my reasons why it may be a winner. Some win some lose. I'm pretty selective as to what tracks I play & I don't play more than 3 tracks on a given day. That process works for me.
Hang in there, ask qustions in this forum and learn. BOL to you..
3) jockey....most imrotant for me.....However, if you know the jocks strenghts, ie. better on turf than dirt; better at sprint than distance, etc. it must figure in the capping.
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opinion onb joicks?
my order of preference:
1) HORSE
2) trainer
3) jockey....most imrotant for me.....However, if you know the jocks strenghts, ie. better on turf than dirt; better at sprint than distance, etc. it must figure in the capping.
again thanks for the feedback - im quitting... i cant win, i put in hours handicapping looking at all the things above mentioned, i bet pretty big as well, 400-500 a race (usually win bets)...im done, main reason being i know there is cheating in this sport along with jockeys who are just god awful at their job. again their is too much variance in this game....after all, we are betting on animals and in my opinion i can get better value some where else.
i usually dont bet favorites - hardly ever but in the past 2 weeks, i was taken down 11 times with decent winners. i had at least-20 terrible rides and cant event count how many horses missed the break to lose by a nose.... its not worth it for me, too much wasted time reading the forum and buring money.
good luck to everyone. i'll stick to playing poker and beting sports occasionally
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again thanks for the feedback - im quitting... i cant win, i put in hours handicapping looking at all the things above mentioned, i bet pretty big as well, 400-500 a race (usually win bets)...im done, main reason being i know there is cheating in this sport along with jockeys who are just god awful at their job. again their is too much variance in this game....after all, we are betting on animals and in my opinion i can get better value some where else.
i usually dont bet favorites - hardly ever but in the past 2 weeks, i was taken down 11 times with decent winners. i had at least-20 terrible rides and cant event count how many horses missed the break to lose by a nose.... its not worth it for me, too much wasted time reading the forum and buring money.
good luck to everyone. i'll stick to playing poker and beting sports occasionally
again thanks for the feedback - im quitting... i cant win, i put in hours handicapping looking at all the things above mentioned, i bet pretty big as well, 400-500 a race (usually win bets)...im done, main reason being i know there is cheating in this sport along with jockeys who are just god awful at their job. again their is too much variance in this game....after all, we are betting on animals and in my opinion i can get better value some where else.
i usually dont bet favorites - hardly ever but in the past 2 weeks, i was taken down 11 times with decent winners. i had at least-20 terrible rides and cant event count how many horses missed the break to lose by a nose.... its not worth it for me, too much wasted time reading the forum and buring money.
good luck to everyone. i'll stick to playing poker and beting sports occasionally
Its your life, but maybe you should wager less. Like you said.. they are animals.. not olympic track stars.
I'd wager less, and have fun with it.. till you get your confidence back up
Confidence is key .. because if you cap a race believing there is gunna be a screw job, I can assure you , you wont cap it properly.
just my opinion tho.. BOL either way
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Quote Originally Posted by NR_78:
again thanks for the feedback - im quitting... i cant win, i put in hours handicapping looking at all the things above mentioned, i bet pretty big as well, 400-500 a race (usually win bets)...im done, main reason being i know there is cheating in this sport along with jockeys who are just god awful at their job. again their is too much variance in this game....after all, we are betting on animals and in my opinion i can get better value some where else.
i usually dont bet favorites - hardly ever but in the past 2 weeks, i was taken down 11 times with decent winners. i had at least-20 terrible rides and cant event count how many horses missed the break to lose by a nose.... its not worth it for me, too much wasted time reading the forum and buring money.
good luck to everyone. i'll stick to playing poker and beting sports occasionally
Its your life, but maybe you should wager less. Like you said.. they are animals.. not olympic track stars.
I'd wager less, and have fun with it.. till you get your confidence back up
Confidence is key .. because if you cap a race believing there is gunna be a screw job, I can assure you , you wont cap it properly.
NR_78, what exactly do you mean taken down 11 times in weeks? That seems like an extroidinarily sp? to me. Most times the stewards let the results stand so I can't buy that. As for the cheating part, I don't buy that either at the major tracks too much purse money involved,and wht would the big boys risk their license? Now as far as the jockeys are concerned, have you ever noticed that about 5% of the top jocks at any track win about 80% of the races? I'm guessing here.
I still say if you learn how to handicap you can win at this game! IMO, there are only three reasons we lose.
We capped it wrong
Mismanaged our money
Bet an unbetable race
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NR_78, what exactly do you mean taken down 11 times in weeks? That seems like an extroidinarily sp? to me. Most times the stewards let the results stand so I can't buy that. As for the cheating part, I don't buy that either at the major tracks too much purse money involved,and wht would the big boys risk their license? Now as far as the jockeys are concerned, have you ever noticed that about 5% of the top jocks at any track win about 80% of the races? I'm guessing here.
I still say if you learn how to handicap you can win at this game! IMO, there are only three reasons we lose.
Hell, if anyone finds all this mind boggling then Yes, you should quit the pari-mutual game. Because after all these posts/comments we have barely scratched the surface.
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Hell, if anyone finds all this mind boggling then Yes, you should quit the pari-mutual game. Because after all these posts/comments we have barely scratched the surface.
Pardon my ignorance, but I do not understand exactly.
If you ignore it.. are you doing so for a reason? Lets say because its completely irrelevant?
If thats the case, I would have to respectfully say I think thats a big mistake.
The harness circuit does not display the elemens of breeding like the Thorobreds do.
If you mean to tell me, you will back a horse going around 2 turns, with no prior experience, and bred from a dam or sire that has a sprinting resume?
I do believe and horse can win on any giving day.. however Breeding is huge IMO.
Some are bred for turf, some for dirt/poly.
I apologize if I am bashing your opinion, ( which I am not...) I just think you are better off to take a look at the breeding lines.
No offense taken, Dog. My position is that the time spent researching all those bloodlines does not pay off in regards to cashing a ticket. I believe in the pp's not bloodlines. If the horse got the distance on this surface before he can do it again. I don't like taking a chance on the what-ifs, should be's and the like. Kinda like a closing sprinter running a route the first time, if he hasn't routed and won before he won't today.
Just my approach to the game and it varies from your's so no big deal.
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Quote Originally Posted by dogcity:
Pardon my ignorance, but I do not understand exactly.
If you ignore it.. are you doing so for a reason? Lets say because its completely irrelevant?
If thats the case, I would have to respectfully say I think thats a big mistake.
The harness circuit does not display the elemens of breeding like the Thorobreds do.
If you mean to tell me, you will back a horse going around 2 turns, with no prior experience, and bred from a dam or sire that has a sprinting resume?
I do believe and horse can win on any giving day.. however Breeding is huge IMO.
Some are bred for turf, some for dirt/poly.
I apologize if I am bashing your opinion, ( which I am not...) I just think you are better off to take a look at the breeding lines.
No offense taken, Dog. My position is that the time spent researching all those bloodlines does not pay off in regards to cashing a ticket. I believe in the pp's not bloodlines. If the horse got the distance on this surface before he can do it again. I don't like taking a chance on the what-ifs, should be's and the like. Kinda like a closing sprinter running a route the first time, if he hasn't routed and won before he won't today.
Just my approach to the game and it varies from your's so no big deal.
Gambler - Just running real bad with horses. I'd rather just walk away and yes I was taken down 11 times in a mater of 2-3 weeks.
The worst was a Woodbine race about 10 days when a horse I picked at 9-10 to 1 was takendown when he won by a mile ( he clipped heels with a horse at the start)...Great acting job by the jockey on the horse!
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Gambler - Just running real bad with horses. I'd rather just walk away and yes I was taken down 11 times in a mater of 2-3 weeks.
The worst was a Woodbine race about 10 days when a horse I picked at 9-10 to 1 was takendown when he won by a mile ( he clipped heels with a horse at the start)...Great acting job by the jockey on the horse!
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